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MONDAY Numbers: DUNKIRK:$2.72M | EM:$2.23M | DT:$2.06M | SMH:$1.55M | GT:$1.33M | AB:$1.15M | WW:$0.396M...inches closer to 400M

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8 minutes ago, Michael Seng Wah said:

STB grossed another 50mil after the holiday, 200mil for Dunkirk still looks possible, or maybe around 190-195mil (3.8-3.9x; 4.2-4.3x if exclude preview).

 

Using Rogue Nation as the comparison point, Dunkirk will probably be around 154 million or so by Sunday, putting it about 3.5 million behind Rogue Nation (finished with 195 million). That's a gain of 1.8 million from the 3rd Sunday. But this is the point where Rogue Nation starts holding really well through Labor Day so it'll be tough to make much gains outside of the IMAX boost/remaining Summer weekdays (Dunkirk opened a week earlier in comparison)

 

If it is at 154 million through Sunday (with an 11 million weekend), I fail to see how Dunkirk could miss 180 million with Labor Day coming up and light competition. Idk if WB wants to push for 200 assuming Dunkirk would finish normally around Rogue Nation, but if they're going to do so, it might require some kind of lift from It + Academy Award re-release

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4 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

Using Rogue Nation as the comparison point, Dunkirk will probably be around 154 million or so by Sunday, putting it about 3.5 million behind Rogue Nation (finished with 195 million). That's a gain of 1.8 million from the 3rd Sunday. But this is the point where Rogue Nation starts holding really well through Labor Day so it'll be tough to make much gains outside of the IMAX boost/remaining Summer weekdays (Dunkirk opened a week earlier in comparison)

 

If it is at 154 million through Sunday (with an 11 million weekend), I fail to see how Dunkirk could miss 180 million with Labor Day coming up and light competition. Idk if WB wants to push for 200, but if they're going to do so, it might require some kind of lift from It

 

If it can reach 190 during the regular theatrical run, I wonder if they might do a re-release to push for 200 during awards season. 

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1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

If it can reach 190 during the regular theatrical run, I wonder if they might do a re-release to push for 200 during awards season. 

 

A re-release will most assuredly happen if it's nominated for Best Picture, but I don't know if it'll do more than adding a couple million if that. 

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16 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Game of Thrones is fucking over the Sunday night shows right now. Nobody wants to admit this but it seems obvious when you look at the same Canadian holiday a year ago. People decided to wait for Monday because of TV stuff on Sunday evening. 

 

It doesnt help the movies that Game of Thrones continues to be more epic than anything else out right now.

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Dunkirk looking at a very Interstellar like run (especially if you include the 2.5 Wed+Thu in the OW).

WW will be well below but then Dunkirk's budget is much smaller too.

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4 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

Curious to see how Dark Tower performed yesterday. RTH said Emoji was ahead of it. 

Emoji is only 20 away from 70 dom after a weekend of 12, so 70-75 is gonna happen no matter what with strong weekdays. But if it does not show a very big drop against Nut Job 2, 80-85 is on cards.

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1 hour ago, MrPink said:

 

Using Rogue Nation as the comparison point, Dunkirk will probably be around 154 million or so by Sunday, putting it about 3.5 million behind Rogue Nation (finished with 195 million). That's a gain of 1.8 million from the 3rd Sunday. But this is the point where Rogue Nation starts holding really well through Labor Day so it'll be tough to make much gains outside of the IMAX boost/remaining Summer weekdays (Dunkirk opened a week earlier in comparison)

 

If it is at 154 million through Sunday (with an 11 million weekend), I fail to see how Dunkirk could miss 180 million with Labor Day coming up and light competition. Idk if WB wants to push for 200 assuming Dunkirk would finish normally around Rogue Nation, but if they're going to do so, it might require some kind of lift from It + Academy Award re-release

 

180-185 is the floor IMO, and it is already 4x from OW excluding preview. 

500mil WW is still in play and may go beyond that if China, Japan and Italy are doing solid business.

Yeah hope WB will re-release/ expand it again during award season next year.

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So year to date we have....

 

Domestic

$500m: Beauty & the Beast

$400m: Wonder Woman

$300m: GotG vol.2, Spider-Man: Homecoming(it's coming in a few weeks)

$200m: DiscMe3, Logan, Fate of the Furious

$100m: 11 different films(12 when Baby Driver crosses)

 

That's some good variation at each plateau. 

 

So what films are left to break out of the $100m camp and where might they land?

 

None of the Aug-Oct films look to me like they could jump into the $200m camp.

Thor Ranarok in November is the first and it will for sure do $200m+ and I'll be surprised(pleasantly) if it crosses $300m but that's a tall order I think.

Justice League also in November looks to be a $300m film as well. I'll be a bit stunned if it stalls out in the high $200m range.

Star Wars: Last Jedi in December is at least a $500m film, will push for $600m, I see a drop from TFA because it and R1 have quenched repeat eagerness.

 

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2 minutes ago, Captain Craig said:

So year to date we have....

 

Domestic

$500m: Beauty & the Beast

$400m: Wonder Woman

$300m: GotG vol.2, Spider-Man: Homecoming(it's coming in a few weeks)

$200m: DiscMe3, Logan, Fate of the Furious

$100m: 11 different films(12 when Baby Driver crosses)

 

That's some good variation at each plateau. 

 

So what films are left to break out of the $100m camp and where might they land?

 

None of the Aug-Oct films look to me like they could jump into the $200m camp.

Thor Ranarok in November is the first and it will for sure do $200m+ and I'll be surprised(pleasantly) if it crosses $300m but that's a tall order I think.

Justice League also in November looks to be a $300m film as well. I'll be a bit stunned if it stalls out in the high $200m range.

Star Wars: Last Jedi in December is at least a $500m film, will push for $600m, I see a drop from TFA because it and R1 have quenched repeat eagerness.

 

ok

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1 minute ago, YourMother said:

IT and Jumanji can do $200M.

Thor if it has legs like Homecoming or Strange will do $300M

JL will do $400M

Jedi will do $700M

Eh @ pretty much everything there. All seems like over predicting to me. Maybe not Star Wars.

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Just now, YourMother said:

IT and Jumanji can do $200M.

Thor if it has legs like Homecoming or Strange will do $300M

JL will do $400M

Jedi will do $700M

I see IT having a strong OW but not having legs. Jumanji I'm just unsure about. I don't see that strong an OW but it'd be a nice surprise(to me) if it does.

Jedi, $700m....the masses could shock us all I suppose. 

JL ceiling is $400m, with the other Holiday competition I just don't see it having the legs to get there. WB will have to drag it there I think.

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