What'll be the Big Blockbuster ($300M+) Breakouts of 2018

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Ethan Hunt said:

400M predictions for the Grinch???

Yes. I think it'll outgross Pets as Illumination's highest grossing stateside film pretty easily.

[YM!]

Just now, That Floating Guy said:

 

I hate Illumination but a beloved Dr. Seuss novel + them marketing and producing + perfect release date when it comes to legs = recipe for disaster (or success depending on your perception).

Not to mention, it's likely the most holiday feeling movie of 2018 outside of Poppins, and let's face it, Ralph 2 will likely be another Dragon 2 and Spider-Man seems likely for TLBM numbers.

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, That Floating Guy said:

 

I hate Illumination but a beloved Dr. Seuss novel + them marketing and producing + perfect release date when it comes to legs = recipe for disaster (or success depending on your perception).

Not to mention, it's likely the most holiday feeling movie and most appealing family movie of 2018 outside of Poppins, and let's face it, Ralph 2 will likely be another Dragon 2 and Spider-Man seems likely for TLBM numbers.

[filmlover]

Plus it'll have been 18 years since the live-action Jim Carrey/Ron Howard movie (a lifetime in Hollywood years to sit on a property). The Grinch will make very serious bank for sure.

[Jonwo]

Just now, filmlover said:

Plus it'll have been 18 years since the live-action Jim Carrey/Ron Howard movie (a lifetime in Hollywood years to sit on a property). The Grinch will make very serious bank for sure.

I wouldn't be surprised if it's like a reverse DM where it does great in the US but average business OS, the Dr Seuss brand isn't nearly as beloved as it is stateside 

[Ethan Hunt]

7 minutes ago, That Floating Guy said:

 

I hate Illumination but a beloved Dr. Seuss novel + them marketing and producing + perfect release date when it comes to legs = recipe for disaster (or success depending on your perception).

I'm sure it'll be big... But 400M. I don't know

[filmnerdjamie]

Also not so certain about Mary Poppins Returns. Disney already attempted to cash in on nostalgia for that with Saving Mr. Banks (with Tom Hanks as Disney, no less!?) and it still fell way below expectations. 

[filmlover]

Just now, filmnerdjamie said:

Also not so certain about Mary Poppins Returns. Disney already attempted to cash in on nostalgia for that with Saving Mr. Banks (with Tom Hanks as Disney, no less!?) and it still fell way below expectations. 

Saving Mr. Banks was a movie about the making of the movie, though (movies about the film industry itself often struggle at the box office, so its gross puts it on the high end of that particular genre). This is a straight up sequel to the beloved movie.

[YM!]

New Mutants has the chance to be the next YA franchise if Fox and Boone play their cards right. This time with the appeal of CBM fans. Could very well do over $250M.

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Saving Mr. Banks was a movie about the making of the movie, though (movies about the film industry itself often struggle at the box office, so its gross puts it on the high end of that particular genre). This is a straight up sequel to the beloved movie.

Considering it only cost $35m, it did do well and it was pretty leggy

Edited August 8, 2017 by Jonwo

[Ethan Hunt]

Just now, YourMother said:

New Mutants has the chance to be the next YA franchise if Fox and Boone play their cards right. This time with the appeal of CBM fans. Could very well do over $250M.

New Mutants is super exciting because Boone, Webber, and Neustadter actually understand how to craft compelling teen drama. As opposed to the team behind Homecoming that just kinda faltered and reverted to superhero shit

[filmnerdjamie]

Seen several posters suggest A Wrinkle in Time could outright flop (It's possible!) I myself think the best case scenario is an Oz: The Great & Powerful performance, on the lower end of $200M.

 

Because the studio itself is so powerful, so many assume their IP is enough to make anything a hit. But we have seen Disney still deliver under-performers and straight-up failures, i.e. Tomorrowland, The BFG, Pete's Dragon, the last two Pirates sequels (domestically), Alice 2, etc.

[Captain Craig]

1 hour ago, YourMother said:

Surprised at little votes for RP1.

I like the visuals that I saw but maybe most are holding out for the actual story to be revealed(we all haven't read the book). If it displays an interesting story I think more votes could come it's way, that's why I didn't cast a vote it's way at this time.

 

Black Panther, Aquaman and Mary Poppins Returns were my votes. I also feel they are 'safe' votes.

I'd like New Mutants to break out but it's FOX and the pendulum swings on their X-Men quality output. Logan, great has me going....hmmm, will NM be mediocre.

 

The rest of the list doesn't light me up past $200m at this point. 

[Captain Craig]

3 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

Seen several posters suggest A Wrinkle in Time could outright flop (It's possible!) I myself think the best case scenario is an Oz: The Great & Powerful performance, on the lower end of $200M.

 

Because the studio itself is so powerful, so many assume their IP is enough to make anything a hit. But we have seen Disney still deliver under-performers and straight-up failures, i.e. Tomorrowland, The BFG, Pete's Dragon, the last two Pirates sequels (domestically), Alice 2, etc.

Not to mention Lone Ranger as well as John Carter

[Barnack]

I don't know how valid the-numbers.com numbers are, but since the last time Disney got poppins out of the vault apparently it sold over 180m in physical media, that is more than a new movie like Iron Man 2.

 

For a comparable Jungle book apparently did 295m (275 before the new movie marketing) and 1991 beauty of the beast had made 160m before the new movie getting a release (that push sales of the old one to 212m), according to the same the-numbers source.

 

Is that movie remake doing close to Jungle Book business (or 60% of beauty and the beast) that unexpected ?, not sure if it would be breaking out, it is one of the most popular ever and still one of the best selling movie in stores.

 

http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Mary-Poppins#tab=video-sales

Dvds alone:

5/7/2017

25

8,600

8,848,371

$89,517

$172,907,185

998

 

MAybe the same could be said for those giant superheroes movies.

 

[Alli]

None of these options will make it imo.

[peludo]

1 hour ago, bruchav said:

Black Panther and Aquaman!

 

Cinderella made $201m, I do not think Mary Poppins will do much more than that, Mary Poppins is not The Beauty and the Beast, or Lion King, or Jungle Book, or even Aladdin.

I do not know if the sequel will be big and I can not know if the character is so deep in the US people memory like Mowgli, Simba or Belle, but Mary Poppins adjusts to $695m in USA... Do not underestimate it. The original movie has some of the most iconic scenes of Disney classics.

[Captain Craig]

5 minutes ago, Alli said:

None of these options will make it imo.

That statement is going to require clarification with reasons. 

There are clearly some incoming 2018 money maker films on this list, which ones will Break Out is the thesis. 

It sounds like you are saying none of these will Break Out, none will surprise? If so, you need to provide your Break Outs and reasons for them. Humor us. 

[Alli]

Just now, Captain Craig said:

That statement is going to require clarification with reasons. 

There are clearly some incoming 2018 money maker films on this list, which ones will Break Out is the thesis. 

It sounds like you are saying none of these will Break Out, none will surprise? If so, you need to provide your Break Outs and reasons for them. Humor us. 

I just don't see Aquamen and Black Panther (the strongest candidates) making it. Aquamen...who cares....seems like low tier superhero and DC hasn't had the strongest movies. Black panther...will make money, but not that much. it's just another marvel superhero and they've peaked imo.

 

 

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, bruchav said:

Cinderella made $201m, I do not think Mary Poppins will do much more than that, Mary Poppins is not The Beauty and the Beast, or Lion King, or Jungle Book, or even Aladdin.

Source ? dvd/blueray Home media sales before the year of the remake

 

Cinderella: 95m

Lion King: 160m (Not sure how well received that platinium bluray edition was too)

The Beauty and the Beast: 160m

Poppins: 176m

Jungle book: 276m

 

http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Beauty-and-the-Beast-(1991)#tab=video-sales

http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Jungle-Book-The-(1967)#tab=video-sales

http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Mary-Poppins#tab=video-sales

http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Lion-King-The#tab=video-sales

http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Cinderella-(1950)#tab=video-sales

 

I agree that it will probably not be Beauty/Lion Kings because it is older, but it could play like Jungle book. The original movie is certainly more into that territory than Cinderella, it is still one of the best selling and most popular movie today, if it is good the potential is huge.