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What'll be the Big Blockbuster ($300M+) Breakouts of 2018

Biggest Blockbuster Breakout of 2018  

112 members have voted

  1. 1. What do you think the biggest breakout(s) of 2018 will be?

    • Black Panther (2/16/18)
    • Wrinkle In Time (3/9/18)
    • Ready Player One (3/30/18)
    • New Mutants (4/13/18)
    • Rampage (4/20/18)
    • Alita: Battle Angel (7/20/18)
    • The Grinch (11/9/18)
    • Mortal Engines (12/14/18)
    • Aquaman (12/21/18)
    • Mary Poppins Returns (12/25/18
    • Meg (8/10/18)
    • Tomb Raider (3/16/18)


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6 minutes ago, Alli said:

I just don't see Aquamen and Black Panther (the strongest candidates) making it. Aquamen...who cares....seems like low tier superhero and DC hasn't had the strongest movies. Black panther...will make money, but not that much. it's just another marvel superhero and they've peaked imo.

 

Fair enough. 

Sit back next year, school is in session. 

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11 minutes ago, Alli said:

Mary poppins is big in the us, i guess. OS i don't think many people care.

 

it depends how well it is received. i don't think it will get amazing reviews

The UK should be an other good market, it is one of the biggest movie ever there

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_films_in_the_United_Kingdom

 

Poppins was bigger than the Lion Kings/Beauty and the beast in the UK, 75% of the Jungle Book

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Just now, Valonqar said:

over 300M is not an automatic break out. 300+M for Infinty War and that Han Solo flick would be a disaster, not a break out. 

Henceforth I didn't include the obvious big hits (IW, HS, JW2, DP2, and TI2).

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The Grinch: $85 million/$340 million

Black Panther: $105 million/$305 million

Aquaman: $90 million/$260 million

Ready Player One: $60 million/$200 million

Mary Poppins Returns: $35 million/$175 million

A Wrinkle in Time: $40 million/$140 million

New Mutants: $45 million/$125 million

Alita: Battle Angel: $35 million/$100 million

Rampage: $30 million/$90 million

Mortal Engines: $27 million/$85 million

Meg: $30 million/$75 million

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So, last year had 9 $300M+ hits...which was way more than for the whole decade (which had between 2-6 total each year)...

 

This year, we effectively have 4 so far (Spidey joining Thursday) with probably 2-3 to come for 6-7...

 

If the OP is convinced he already knows 5 sure-fire $300M movies, there may not be any box office room for any more...or if there is, no more than 2-4 more...

 

Now, I'm not as convinced OP's 1st 5 surefire movies will definitely hit $300M, b/c I think quality of the films will matter A LOT since he lists 4 sequels and a spin-off, and we saw bad sequels getting crushed all year this year (and last)...

 

If I had to pick "sight unseen" and "quality unknown" a movie with a potential breakout that was NOT a super (b/c Aquaman and Black Panther would have the best chance, just looking at how the last 2 years have gone and they both are premier spinoff concepts and those concepts have skied recently)...

 

I'd go with a Wrinkle in Time - well cast to get all ages and all demos (B&TB-like), a beloved story, a beautiful release date for it to capitalize on all family Spring Breaks with no "real" animateds or other family movies looking to be any competition (no, Sherlock Gnomes, you don't count)...I don't see B&TB's $500M, but $300M is in the possible range, depending on quality of the movie, availability of family ticket deals, etc...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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I honestly don't understand overpredictions for Alita (GitS with no star and a washed up director), Mortal Instruments, er, Engines (the book is far from an iconic YA and it has a first time director who was a SFX guy, never a good omen) and New Mutants (X Men is the most washed up franchise there is and Logan succeeded because it looked like a different universe altogether, you wouldn't know it belonged with Apocalypse shit). Those 3 are gonna flop hard, especially Alita and Mortal. X Men will still have some sad sacks show up OW and then abandon the ship.

Edited by Valonqar
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I'm gonna go bold and say Venom, if  Sony doesn't screw it up it like the Topher Grace version. It has a decent release date (Gravity was huge in that spot) and I think it could play well in the Halloween season.  A trailer of course could change my thinking.

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11 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

I honestly don't understand overpredictions for Alita (GitS with no star and a washed up director), Mortal Instruments (the book is far from an iconic YA and it has a first time director who was a SFX guy, never a good omen) and New Mutants (X Men is the most washed up franchise there is and Logan succeeded because it looked like a different universe altogether, you wouldn't know it belonged with Apocalypse shit). Those 3 are gonna flop hard, especially Alita and Mortal. X Men will still have some sad sacks show up OW and then abandon the ship.

They're making another Mortal Instruments?

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1 hour ago, Alli said:

I just don't see Aquamen and Black Panther (the strongest candidates) making it. Aquaman...who cares1....seems like low tier superhero and DC hasn't had the strongest movies. Black panther...will make money, but not that much. it's just another marvel superhero and they've peaked2.

 

 

1 Wrong.

2 Doubly wrong.

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6 minutes ago, Caladbolg said:

I'm gonna go bold and say Venom, if  Sony doesn't screw it up it like the Topher Grace version. It has a decent release date (Gravity was huge in that spot) and I think it could play well in the Halloween season.  A trailer of course could change my thinking.

I was thinking about putting Venom in but I think it may do less than Homecoming OW ($117M) for a final gross.

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7 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

With respect, there is no such thing as a $300M+ grossing disaster, domestically speaking.

Star Wars 8 and Avengers 3 part 1 doing 306m would require some marketing or movie disaster imo (if there is no massive electrical failure to explain those result or something of the sort).

Edited by Barnack
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Black Panther - $285M

Wrinkle In Time - $130M

Ready Player One - $200M

New Mutants - $165M

Rampage - $110M

Atila - $85M

Grinch - $400M

Mortal Engines - $130M

Marry Poppins - $320M

Aquaman - $300M

Meg - $50M

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5 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Star Wars 8 and Avengers 3 part 1 doing 306m would require some marketing or movie disaster imo (if there is no massive electrical failure to explain those result or something of the sort).

Only end of the world would be a satisfying explanation why TLJ dropped by over 600M from TFA. But while 300M range would be disappointing for IF1, at least it would be a more gradual drop from CW which was Avengers 2.5, not way around it (except by Cap fans who want to believe that it was an increase over TWS and not a drop from AoU). 

Edited by Valonqar
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Black Panther is just another superhero film in the same way that Wonder Woman was just another superhero film.

If people really think that what BP represents as a sociocultural gamechanger is not going to positively impact its box office, I don't know what to say.

I don't know if the film will get good or bad reviews, but trust me, BP will not be "just another superhero film."

It will not only do 300 million easily (yes, easily ), it is the only CBM in the near future that will reach Wonder Woman-levels of pop culture domination.

Just watch.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Cochofles
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