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Joker | Oct 4 2019 | BE WARNED | ZERO TOLERANCE

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I think the big takeaway from SAG was its stunt ensemble nod. Clearly shows strong support - nominating for main ensemble would have been too weird given it's essentially a one-man show, but it's hardly John Wick in terms of stunts. It's essentially a show of support, just like The Irishamn hitting both ensembles.

 

Also was nominated for the ACE.

 

Right now, think the top 6 for the Oscar BP are:

The Irishman

OUATIH

Parasite

JoJo Rabbit

Joker

Marriage Story

 

Last 2 keep switching around in my mind.

It is definitely showing VERY strong industry support, in contrast to critics' circles. It's hit all but one guild so far. I'm expecting Driver (and Sandler and Banderas) to clean up on the critics award circuit, but Phoenix will win the Golden Globe and Oscar. Also think Joker is potentially looking at 8+ Oscar nods.

 

Picture - 90% chance

Actor - 100%

Score - 95%

Editing - 90%

Make Up & Hair - 90%

Sound Mixing - 90%

Sound Editing- 90%

 

Add Cinematography - 60%

 

Then a 50-50 for Adapted Screenplay and Art Direction.

A long shot for Director

 

So, anything from like 5 to 11 nominations, lol.

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

is the stunt ensemble nod because of that 'joker getting hit by taxi' meme?

really, John Wick may have been a better choice

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5 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

is the stunt ensemble nod because of that 'joker getting hit by taxi' meme?

It's not as good as 95-year-old DeNiro almost breaking a hip trying to kick a man, but still... impressive stunt nonetheless.

Hahaha. Both these two movies being nominated are more about their overall support (The Irishman and OUATIH hitting both ensembles - with the latter actually having good stunts as well - shows they're the two front-runners with actors and in the overall race, and Joker's is a consolation, as putting it in the main ensemble, potentially at the expense of Bombshell and Little Women would have caused further consternation).

 

I really can't see how it misses a BP nod at this point. Expect the PGA will further cement that and, if by some chance Phillips makes it in at the DGA, it will be absolutely locked for a nod.

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0/3 of the john wick movies have been nominated for the stunt awards. everyone complains about the oscars not having a stunt award but lbr if they did it would suck like this.

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1 hour ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

i hope Phillips gets nominated for screenplay and directing just for the reactions.

It would be glorious, size of meltdowns will be biblical, some people would need to be put on sucidal watch. 😂

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I was expecting a nomination on the Costume Designers Guild but looking at the nominees... pretty much all of them have huge focus on costumes, the competition was just too strong.

On the other hand, I was not expecting a nomination at the Editors' Guild, so that was a great surprise. And editing has more of an impact towards being nominated for Best Picture, although it may miss the Oscar nomination in Editing since the category is not split between drama and comedy at the Academy.

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4 hours ago, reddevil19 said:

Editing - 90%

Add Cinematography - 60%

Other way around for me. Winning both the Golden Frog and the Audience Award at the Cameraimage festival almost guarantees the nomination.

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1 hour ago, TheUndertaker said:

Other way around for me. Winning both the Golden Frog and the Audience Award at the Cameraimage festival almost guarantees the nomination.

Perhaps. But being nominated for the ACE today puts better odds on editing as of right now. We shall see how it goes with the rest of the precursors. But I think it's fair to say it's been doing extremely well everywhere except critics circles, which again shows the big disconnect on this movie between critics and everyone else, including the industry. 

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I suspect best actor might come down to duel between Phoenix and Adam Sandler, given the rave reviews Sandler is getting for Uncut Jewels.

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26 minutes ago, dudalb said:

I suspect best actor might come down to duel between Phoenix and Adam Sandler, given the rave reviews Sandler is getting for Uncut Jewels.

Sandler's most likely not even being nominated. Uncut Gems is a critics darling, but it's hit-and-miss with the guilds so seems there's little support in the industry. 

 

Phoenix, Driver, Banderas, Egerton, Bale, DeNiro, Pryce... All will get in before Sandler does looking at the race now. 

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Just watched Marriage Story. Fantastic performance by Adam Driver but Joaquin Phoenix still gives the better performance. Easily. It shouldn't be a contest.

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On 12/11/2019 at 3:54 PM, reddevil19 said:

I think the big takeaway from SAG was its stunt ensemble nod. Clearly shows strong support - nominating for main ensemble would have been too weird given it's essentially a one-man show, but it's hardly John Wick in terms of stunts. It's essentially a show of support, just like The Irishamn hitting both ensembles.

 

Also was nominated for the ACE.

 

Right now, think the top 6 for the Oscar BP are:

The Irishman

OUATIH

Parasite

JoJo Rabbit

Joker

Marriage Story

 

Last 2 keep switching around in my mind.

It is definitely showing VERY strong industry support, in contrast to critics' circles. It's hit all but one guild so far. I'm expecting Driver (and Sandler and Banderas) to clean up on the critics award circuit, but Phoenix will win the Golden Globe and Oscar. Also think Joker is potentially looking at 8+ Oscar nods.

 

Picture - 90% chance

Actor - 100%

Score - 95%

Editing - 90%

Make Up & Hair - 90%

Sound Mixing - 90%

Sound Editing- 90%

 

Add Cinematography - 60%

 

Then a 50-50 for Adapted Screenplay and Art Direction.

A long shot for Director

 

So, anything from like 5 to 11 nominations, lol.

 

 

 

Amazing post! 

 

But I'm still wondering why the critics associations are snubbing Joker - similar to the likes of Adam Sandler in Uncut Gems, but the likes of Satellite, Golden Gloves, Screen Actors Guild are not? Director Bong spoke of the comparisons his film Parasite had with Joker - which many have seen, for example Grace Randolph - so it's even more of an irksome proposition that it's being neglected in contrast to Parasite.

Edited by Bart Allen

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38 minutes ago, Bart Allen said:

But I'm still wondering why the critics associations are snubbing Joker - similar to the likes of Adam Sandler in Uncut Gems, but the likes of Satellite, Golden Gloves, Screen Actors Guild are not?

Joker was never expected to do well with snobbish american critics associations, they absolutely hate the movie and they were the ones who created that "dangerous movie for incels" narrative. There's huge disconnect between their reception and audience/industry reception. I've been telling this for a long time that critics associations will be snubbing it, but it'll blow up in their faces on Globes and industry awards like Oscars and guilds.

Edited by Firepower
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1 minute ago, Firepower said:

Joker was never expected to do well with snobbish american critics associations, they absolutely hate the movie and they were the ones who created that "dangerous movie for incels" narrative. There's huge disconnect between their reception and audience/industry reception. I've been telling this for a long time that critics associations will be snubbing it, but it'll blow up in their faces on Globes and industry awards like Oscars and guilds.

Yep! Can't wait!

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40 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Joker was never expected to do well with snobbish american critics associations, they absolutely hate the movie and they were the ones who created that "dangerous movie for incels" narrative. There's huge disconnect between their reception and audience/industry reception. I've been telling this for a long time that critics associations will be snubbing it, but it'll blow up in their faces on Globes and industry awards like Oscars and guilds.

True, but they reluctantly have to at least acknowledge Phoenix (well most of them at least) or Hildur for score - more so as they wouldn't wish to create the impression that their anti-female ~

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Yep, what I said about them having to reluctantly nominate Phoenix for Best Actor, and Hildur for Best Score (as she's the only women) is once again proven to be correct with them being - once more - the only two nominations from theSan Francisco Bay Area Critics Circle Nominations ~

Edited by Bart Allen

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