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Best Director 2017

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GDT, Nolan and Guadagnino are the big three (and likely to win in that exact order I think). Because I don't care about rationally predicting the other two spots with a bunch of movies still unseen but I want the line-up to remain exciting, let's say PTA and Jordan Peele for #4 and #5. Anyone but Wright and Frears really. 

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1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

2. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

3. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name

4. Steven Spielberg, The Post

5. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour

 

6. Darren Aronofsky, mother!

7. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying

8. Alexander Payne, Downsizing

9. Jordan Peele, Get Out

10. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird

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I hope GdT takes it. He has a great narrative ( one of Three Amigos, 2 of which won, so it's a Hollywood fairytale), is super likable and the movie's praised for directorial virtuosity (among many othert things save the script). I have a bad feeling that Fishsex won't take Picture (it's a fantasy that doesn't get script praise and all BP have won or at least had script noms lately) but it shouldn't affect Best Director (splits are quite common lately).

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Del Torro And Nolan are both highly likely

 

Im skeptical about Spielberg getting in unless the Post is simply brilliant.  

 

Guadigino is quite possible, but there's been a lot of surgers lately with more heft.

 

I think Dees Reese and Greta Gerwig both have decent chances

 

Jordan Peele could get in, depending if Get Out can get a surge of critics awards ala Fury Road.  Plus it'll need a few tech noms in order to get a BP nom.

 

Villeneuve is another possibility given how much love 2049 is getting.  Big tech movies like that get a lot of director love.

 

I'm not sold on Darkest Hour yet.  It'll get a heavy push, but I could see it flopping in the non-acting cats based on reviews.

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Nolan

Del Toro

McDonagh 

Wright

Rees or Guadagnino 

 

I think the Post sucks at this point. PTA too weird, Lady Bird and Florida Project too small, Villeneuve boxed out by Nolan/Del Toro, and Craig Gillespie for I, Tonya seems like a classic case of a director having no chance even for their well liked nominated picture. Peele is legit too, I'd put him next up. 

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Is Lady Bird supposed to be any kind of a directorial showcase? It feels like a writing/acting-driven movie. I think Guadagnino is in, or at least he should be (if he missed it would be a Haynes for Carol-level snub, if not worse), and I can see the directors' branch go for Peele, PTA, Baker or even Bigelow before they go for Gerwig.

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