The Panda Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 (edited) Currently have Peele Gerwig Del Torro Guadagino Nolan with Sean Baker as an alt who could take out Nolan. If that happens I could potentially see Argo 2.0 happening. Edited December 8, 2017 by The Last Panda Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 The Nolan/Spielberg/del Toro/Gerwig/Guadagnino lineup feels right to me. If anyone breaks in, it'll be PTA (passion) or McDonagh (if 3B is the BP winner). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 18 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: The Nolan/Spielberg/del Toro/Gerwig/Guadagnino lineup feels right to me. If anyone breaks in, it'll be PTA (passion) or McDonagh (if 3B is the BP winner). Pretty much. That'll likely be the DGA line-up too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 (edited) 25 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: The Nolan/Spielberg/del Toro/Gerwig/Guadagnino lineup feels right to me. If anyone breaks in, it'll be PTA (passion) or McDonagh (if 3B is the BP winner). PTA, McDonagh and Spielberg haven't been showing up whereas Peele and Baker definitely have. Obviously the Guilds will matter more and could deviate, but it's not like they haven't snubbed Spielberg before (same with Hanks in BA). Phantom Thread is something that was going to play better with critics, and it's still not gaining traction, PTA Is a non-factor. I think there's more of a passion vote for Baker and more of a consensus vote for Peele and Get Out. Edited December 8, 2017 by The Last Panda Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 Yeah, I could also see Sean Baker surprising everyone on the morning nominations are announced like the Beasts of the Southern Wild guy did nearly five years ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichWS Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 12:54 PM, filmlover said: Yeah, I could also see Sean Baker surprising everyone on the morning nominations are announced like the Beasts of the Southern Wild guy did nearly five years ago. I'm rooting for it. He did a fantastic job with some of my favorite shots of the year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BardCrank Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Ok so if you look at the numbers it goes like this : to win best director your movie must be top 3 contender for BP at least then you either win because your movie won best picture, your directing was remarkable and the movie was difficult to pull ( The King's Speech , No country for old men ) OR you win because the movie was a technical and artistic achievement on an undeniable level ( Life of Pi , La La Land , Gravity ) or you get the best of both worlds and win because you aced both ( Birdman ) So , this year looking at the potential directors lineups we have GDT , Gerwig , McDonagh , Spielberg , Gaudagnino , Nolan , MAYBE Baker or Peele of those , the top 3 could be any combination of 3 Billboards , Lady Bird , The Post and The Shape of Water ( at least that's what we think for now , you can add other movies like CMBYN or Get Out but that won't change what's to come ) , even if lady bird wins BP it's very difficult for Gerwig to get the oscar ( it's a small , subtle and smooth movie ) unless the movie starts smashing through the awards season and becomes the next Slumdog millionaire , 3 Billboards and The Post can win best director only if BP was theirs and the movie snatches a bunch of other oscars . that leaves us with The Shape of Water which seems like the technical player of the year that can win if any other movie wins BP but is not undeniably strong as to snatch BD too . A case can be made for Nolan too but his movie must be a top 3 BP contender and win a bunch of technical awards and Honestly I don't see that happening Did I miss anyone ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 best director winner bet on it 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 DGA announces in an 1 and a half hour (12 pm EST). Prepare for snubs. NGNG: Sorkin gets in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichWS Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Wouldn't be surprised if he gets in for DGA, but Spielberg (and The Post itself) has really lost steam. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, Valonqar said: DGA announces in an 1 and a half hour (12 pm EST). Prepare for snubs. NGNG: Sorkin gets in. Apparently it's been pushed back to 2 EST. LMAO Franco was one of the nominees, wasn't he? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 hours ago, Valonqar said: DGA announces in an 1 and a half hour (12 pm EST). Prepare for snubs. NGNG: Sorkin gets in. Tangentially related, but Game of Thrones got 3 of the 5 TV Drama slots from them this time around. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 19 minutes ago, filmlover said: Apparently it's been pushed back to 2 EST. LMAO Franco was one of the nominees, wasn't he? Joke is that they are removing his name as we speak hence the delay. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BardCrank Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 did something new break ? i read the source and it wasn't much to go on ( one account was very alarming tho ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 25 minutes ago, 4815162342 said: Tangentially related, but Game of Thrones got 3 of the 5 TV Drama slots from them this time around. And Master of None got 2, they were on point with those nominations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fancyarcher Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 So based off DGA, it looks like Gerwig, McDonagh, Nolan, Peele, and del toro are our potential director nominees. I think that's a fine and fair lineup. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said: So based off DGA, it looks like Gerwig, McDonagh, Nolan, Peele, and del toro are our potential director nominees. I think that's a fine and fair lineup. I think that's going to be our Top 5 at the Oscars. Nolan, Del Toro and McDonagh hit all precursors so I guess they are locked. DGA gave Gerwig and Peele a boost. I guess only Guadangino (sp?) is a possible threat for one spot. The Post is dead so I don't expect Spielberg to sneak in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fancyarcher Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, Valonqar said: I think that's going to be our Top 5 at the Oscars. Nolan, Del Toro and McDonagh hit all precursors so I guess they are locked. DGA gave Gerwig and Peele a boost. I guess only Guadangino (sp?) is a possible threat for one spot. The Post is dead so I don't expect Spielberg to sneak in. Call Be Your Name's chances are slipping, so I'd be surprised if Guadangino gets in. I'd say that Gerwig and Peele are #4 and #5 respectively. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Valonqar said: I think that's going to be our Top 5 at the Oscars. Nolan, Del Toro and McDonagh hit all precursors so I guess they are locked. DGA gave Gerwig and Peele a boost. I guess only Guadangino (sp?) is a possible threat for one spot. The Post is dead so I don't expect Spielberg to sneak in. There is almost always one difference between DGA line up and Oscar line up, so yeah Call me by your name Guadagnino could get in. Even if those 5 are the 5 favorite with say an average chance of 80% of getting in, chance of at least one missing are of 67% Edited January 11, 2018 by Barnack Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 5 hours ago, Barnack said: There is almost always one difference between DGA line up and Oscar line up, so yeah Call me by your name Guadagnino could get in. Even if those 5 are the 5 favorite with say an average chance of 80% of getting in, chance of at least one missing are of 67% I think it’s fair to remember though that just because in the past DGA has gone 4/5 doesn’t mean they will this year. It’s possible Guadagino, Spielberg or Villeneuve (in a fox catcher like stunt) steal the spot. But none of them are nearly as strong as Peele and Gerwig. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
