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Jojo Rabbit | 18 OCT 2019 | WW2 Dramedy from ACADEMY AWARD NOMINEE Taika Waititi | Taika Waititi is literally Hitler | 7 Oscars Noms Including Best Picture

By aabattery, in Box Office Discussion

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lorddemaxus Global Phenomenon

lorddemaxus

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, TMP said:

Yeah but even Green Book debuted with a higher MC score. Just Mercy sounds even more basic than that film (albeit with way less controversy). Maybe OUATIH can win Picture? It's certainly the best film of the year so far in my heart.

I'm still betting on Just Mercy to win the People's award. If it does, then it's 100% an Oscar frontrunner. If it's a runner up then a nomination is a 50/50 chance. If it doesn't then get even runner up, I guess you're right and even a nom won't happen. I think OUATIH is unlikely to get much. I think it's coming out with just a screenplay and supporting actor win. 

Edited by lorddemaxus
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TMP Global Phenomenon

TMP

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22 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I'm still betting on Just Mercy to win the People's award. If it does, then it's 100% an Oscar frontrunner. If it's a runner up then a nomination is a 50/50 chance. If it doesn't then get even runner up, I guess you're right and even a nom won't happen. I think OUATIH is unlikely to get much. I think it's coming out with just a screenplay and supporting actor win. 

Mr. Rogers or Knives Out seem more likely for the People's choice award

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lorddemaxus Global Phenomenon

lorddemaxus

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15 minutes ago, TMP said:

Mr. Rogers or Knives Out seem more likely for the People's choice award

I don't see Knives Out getting it. Even if it's great, it's a genre film and genre films usually don't win it. Same reason why Hustler won't win it (although it's not so much a genre film). I can see either Hustler or Knives Out (or even Joker for that matter) get one runner up spot and I think it's between Mr Rogers and Just Mercy for the win (and the one that doesn't end up winning is runner up).

 

On the other hand Joker could actually win it. Sure, it's a genre film but genre films are just unlikely to win the Golden Lion and Joker won that so maybe if Americans like it as much as the Venice jury did, it could.

Edited by lorddemaxus
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TMP Global Phenomenon

TMP

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4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

This feels like it's gonna end up an awards season nonstarter unless it does well at the box office (which I'm doubting).

Daniel Cretton and Waititi can at least take solace in the fact that they both have billion dollar grossers coming up. Most other directors at TIFF can't really say that

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Valonqar Global Phenomenon

Valonqar

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2 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

I'm still betting on Just Mercy to win the People's award. If it does, then it's 100% an Oscar frontrunner. If it's a runner up then a nomination is a 50/50 chance. If it doesn't then get even runner up, I guess you're right and even a nom won't happen. I think OUATIH is unlikely to get much. I think it's coming out with just a screenplay and supporting actor win. 

Just Mercy winning the Oscar would be like Green Book winning. A pedestrian positive message movie wins because middlowbrow taste still rules supreme. It's a Lifetime movie that didn't raise above its genre trappings (reviews are very clear on that). It literally hangs on positive message not on an actual merit. The biggest mistake they could make is going for this mediocrity a year after another one won. It would not age well. people would look back and say Joker or something else with actual flavor and staying power should have won. If MBJ won Actor over Phoenix, well, my condolences. he'd never live it down. 

 

So I hope WB stays strong and proceed with Joker push for its obviously a stronger movie in every way. It has an actual merit, it isn't just a message. 

 

But anyway, I must say I'm shocked at Jojo reception. I honestly thought it would play well. 

Edited by Valonqar
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TMP Global Phenomenon

TMP

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16 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

Isn’t Disney+ supposed to be for the more family friendly content? If anything, Fox Searchlight would probably be relegated to Hulu. 

Iger said Fox Searchlight will be developing content exclusively for Disney+ 

Also, MC dropped to 45; Slant gave it a ZERO. Damn. RT at 57% too.

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WittyUsername Summer Tentpole

WittyUsername

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2 minutes ago, TMP said:

Iger said Fox Searchlight will be developing content exclusively for Disney+ 

Also, MC dropped to 45; Slant gave it a ZERO. Damn. RT at 57% too.

That’s weird. If Disney+ is supposed to generally be reserved for family friendly titles, why would they get Fox Searchlight to make content for it? Are they going to get Fox Searchlight to specifically make safe and sanitized content?

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