Weekend Thread | Actuals ~ BR2049 32.753M :((, TMBU 10.551M, It 9.972M, MLP:TM 8.885M, K:TGC 8.675M, AM 8.446M, TLNM 7.002 M, V&A 4.171M | All those posts will be lost in time, like tears in rain. Time to die

[aabattery]

7 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Not talking about BR are we? 

 

Just gotta look at it with a fresh perspective. Dunno about you, but I'd be pretty chuffed with 30 million dollars.

 

[eXtacy2]

That sunday drop bodes well for BR2049 legs at least. Could maybe still get to 100m domestic - obviously still quite disappointing number.

[MCKillswitch123]

Wow, almost everything went up on estimates. Wasn't there a Canadian holiday or something if I remember correctly, or did studios just lowball the Sunday holds of almost every movie?

 

Regardless, BR2049's make or breaker will be its 2nd and 3rd weekend holds. Arrival dropped just under 50% in its 2nd weekend, and in its 3rd, it had a stunning 5.6% drop (although that was Thanksgiving week, but still). If BR2049 - which does hold a pretty damn strong 83% on the Flixster audience score (and an equally strong 4.2/5 average score), indicating that audiences that saw it did like it very much - can hold in the low 50's (possibly lower than that), it can still pull off 90+.

 

BR's internal multiplier was a 2.6x, which is:

• a noticeable improvement over the one pulled by the other 2017 Ridley Scott franchise revival, Alien: Covenant's 2.36x;
• a subtle improvement over Villeneuve's last film Arrival, which had a 2.57x internal multi (that being said, it's important to remember that Arrival only opened in 2300+ theaters, but still, doesn't change the inferior IM);
• way below Gravity and The Martian's 3.18x and dead on 3x multipliers respectively, and also under Interstellar's 2.81x...... although it's hardly a surprise as BR was expected to be more frontloaded than any of those, so not a huge deal there;
• smaller than fellow cult classic sequel Mad Max: Fury Road's IM of 2.74x;
• stronger than another sci-fi cult classic sequel of the decade, that being Tron Legacy, which had a 2.51x (and that movie came out at a time when films were much less frontloaded than they are today, not to mention it came out in the Holiday season which would usually boost better legs, so those are pretty good news for 2049);
• and for comparison sakes, it also had a better IM than Kingsman: The Golden Circle's 2.55x.

So, as it turns out, not all screams doom for 2049 here. If it can hold its own throughout October - and tbh, the purge of theater drops in the coming weeks won't make it easy, despite not much in the way of direct competition..... imo, Happy Death Day is the only potential 30M+ opener in the rest of the month, and that appeals almost exclusively to teenagers - then it could still be rescued, assuming OS gives it some strong numbers. While 300M+ wouldn't be a range of success, it would be kinda like Star Trek Beyond or even something like The Legend of Tarzan where it would be more of a win in spirit than in actual profits.

 

Also, since I spoke of Kingsman, does that drop mean that 100M DOM might still be on the table after all?

Edited October 10, 2017 by MCKillswitch123

[baumer]

@MCKillswitch123.....it was Thanksgiving here yesterday in Canada but more importantly it was Columbus Day in the US.  So almost all of the domestic market was celebrating a holiday on Monday.

[MCKillswitch123]

40 minutes ago, The Last baumer said:

@MCKillswitch123.....it was Thanksgiving here yesterday in Canada but more importantly it was Columbus Day in the US.  So almost all of the domestic market was celebrating a holiday on Monday.

Yeah, I was aware of Canadian Thanksgiving + Columbus Day, but that was Monday. Maybe it's the fact that I'm still a rookie with all the box office details, but does that explain the smaller drops on Sunday? If it does and rather obviously, then I'm a moron or a big rookie, I don't know

 

Btw, I actually miscalculated BR's multiplier - it's actually a 2.6x, not 2.61x as I originally posted. Not a big change, though, so let's just move on. Anyhow - taking away the actual Sunday hold (assuming the holidays had anything to do with it) and going by the estimated OW number (31.5M), it's internal multi would've actually been a 2.5x. Which is..... not that great at all. So let's hope that Sunday wasn't just a huge anomaly

Edited October 10, 2017 by MCKillswitch123

[filmscholar]

I just saw a new Blade Runner ad "The #1 Movie in the World".   That was quick.   I'm very interesting it it's weekday holds and next weekend's number.   

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Yeah, I was aware of Canadian Thanksgiving + Columbus Day, but that was Monday. Maybe it's the fact that I'm still a rookie with all the box office details, but does that explain the smaller drops on Sunday? If it does and rather obviously, then I'm a moron or a big rookie, I don't know

 

Btw, I actually miscalculated BR's multiplier - it's actually a 2.6x, not 2.61x as I originally posted. Not a big change, though, so let's just move on. Anyhow - taking away the actual Sunday hold (assuming the holidays had anything to do with it) and going by the estimated OW number (31.5M), it's internal multi would've actually been a 2.5x. Which is..... not that great at all. So let's hope that Sunday wasn't just a huge anomaly

 

The holiday had everything to do with it considering all films in the top 10 increased. 

 

Common sense tells me that people are more likely to go out and do stuff on the Sunday evening if they don’t have work the next day. 

[MrPink]

To be fair, I don't believe Columbus Day is widely celebrated outside of select industries/regions, but it's enough to be an impact.

[Hatebox]

I'd be very surprised if BR has good holds. I liked it well enough, but "it's so fucking long and slow" isn't the kind of WOM that usually predicates great legs.

[a2k]

Blade Runner 2049 grossed an estimated $4.46M on Monday. 4-Day total stands at $37.21M. (-49.6%)

 

The LEGO Ninjago Movie grossed an estimated $1.90M on Monday. 18-Day total stands at $45.98M. (-20.3%)

 

IT grossed an estimated $1.44M on Monday. 32-Day total stands at $306.69M. (-51.5%)

 

https://twitter.com/BORReport

Edited October 10, 2017 by a2knet

[MCKillswitch123]

2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

 

The holiday had everything to do with it considering all films in the top 10 increased. 

 

Common sense tells me that people are more likely to go out and do stuff on the Sunday evening if they don’t have work the next day. 

Yeah, I figured and I agree - the knowledge of a holiday in the next day probably bumped up people's interest to go to theaters on Sunday afternoon/evening.

 

STILL, at least 2049's rise from estimates to actuals was pretty damn strong, so MAYYYYYYBE it does have leg power. Again, wom is very good (despite the pacing and length), and competition is pretty muted. And I still maintain that the smaller number of showings on OW = more audience leftovers that could wanna try it out a weekend (or more) later. But this is extremely optimistic, to say the least. Realistically, it's probably gonna stall somewhere in the 80's.

Edited October 10, 2017 by MCKillswitch123