Monday 6 Nov. Numbers: Thor $8.25m (pg6)

[ZattMurdock]

@Rth Ragnarok we would like to have words with thee

[ZattMurdock]

16 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

I think that's why he said MOST. 

Yeah and I'm just saying that cold hard data from the latest films don't corroborate with his theory. Hell, going back to Doctor Strange last year and you have that film at $109.8. Doctor Strange went to make $232.6m dom. Ragnarok with Monday's grosses is at $130.9m, if it makes around $9m this Tuesday, $7m this Wednesday and $6m this Thursday (I know, crumbling numbers), itt'd be around $150m. The difference here is that I see Ragnarok as a crowdpleaser, so I'm thinking that Homecoming's multiplier is probably what Ragnarok is going for. So $122m for a 2.8 multiplier gets Ragnarok to around $340m, $40m more or less of where Ragnaroc's rule of thumb theory would lead us to think. 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, ZattMurdock said:

Yeah and I'm just saying that cold hard data from the latest films don't corroborate with his theory. Hell, going back to Doctor Strange last year and you have that film at $109.8. Doctor Strange went to make $232.6m dom. Ragnarok with Monday's grosses is at $130.9m, if it makes around $9m this Tuesday, $7m this Wednesday and $6m this Thursday (I know, crumbling numbers), itt'd be around $150m. The difference here is that I see Ragnarok as a crowdpleaser, so I'm thinking that Homecoming's multiplier is probably what Ragnarok is going for. So $122m for a 2.8 multiplier gets Ragnarok to around $340m, $40m more or less of where Ragnaroc's rule of thumb theory would lead us to think. 

 

And I see this finishing with around a 2.5.  It's not that well liked, not by the general audience anyway.  And there's a rush factor to almost all Marvel sequels.  But we've been down this road before, so I'll just leave it at that.

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

And I see this finishing with around a 2.5.  It's not that well liked, not by the general audience anyway.  And there's a rush factor to almost all Marvel sequels.  But we've been down this road before, so I'll just leave it at that.

Where have I heard you saying literally the same thing before? Haha. Oh, I remember, Spider-Man: Homecoming.  

[baumer]

3 hours ago, ZattMurdock said:

Where have I heard you saying literally the same thing before? Haha. Oh, I remember, Spider-Man: Homecoming.  

 

I made an error with Spidey. It had summer weekdays.  I didn't factor that in.  But I also went through this already and my data supports that sequels released in November, with the exception of The Hunger Games, don't fare well when it comes to multipliers.  So again, everything you are saying has already been mentioned in the last 5 pages or so.  

[ZattMurdock]

Quote

“Thor: Ragnarok” generated a perfect score on comScore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak audience survey with a rare five out of five stars. Of those surveyed, 28% of moviegoers vowed to see it again in theaters, 29% said they will buy the film on Blu-ray, and 84% said they would “definitely recommend” “Ragnarok” to their friends.

Source: http://variety.com/2017/film/news/thor-ragnarok-box-office-opening-thursday-1202606103/

 

Rotten Tomatoes:

 

93% Score all critics, raving critic consensus, 90% audience score

 

 

Baumer doesn't like a film: 

 

"It's not that well liked, not by the general audience anyway". 

 

Never change, BOT. Never change. 

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

Baumer is projecting his opinion onto his Thor predictions waaaaaay harder than I ever did with WW  

[ZattMurdock]

2 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

I made an error with Spidey. It had summer weekdays.  I didn't factor that in.  But I also went through this already and my data supports that sequels released in November, with the exception of The Hunger Games, don't fare well when it comes to multipliers.  So again, everything you are saying has already been mentioned in the last 5 pages or so.  

You just do one hell of lot errors when you don't like a film. It's a pattern. It's an integral part of BOT's lore at this point.  

[MrGlass2]

Ragnarok opened much higher than Doctor Strange, so all things equal it should have a worse multiplier.

 

And all things are not equal: it is a threequel and with two Avengers is much more fanboy-friendly than the introduction of a new character.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Thinking about 2.55 for Thor.

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Baumer is projecting his opinion onto his Thor predictions waaaaaay harder than I ever did with WW  

I don't do that with LITERALLY NOTHING once we have cold hard data. I said that It wouldn't be able to top Homecoming and even went on a fun back and forth with @a2knet  about it. Not that I wasn't impressed with It's box office and not that I won't love the shit out of that film once I see it, I just thought that the fact of not having 2d and Ragnarok / Justice League would prevent that from happening and lo and behold, I was right. I just find it funny how BOT behaves sometimes. It gives life to my day, haha. 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, ZattMurdock said:

You just do one hell of lot errors when you don't like a film. It's a pattern. It's an integral part of BOT's lore at this point.  

 

That's not true at all.  But you can believe whatever you choose to.  I will make predictions based on history and sometimes those predictions re proven correct and sometimes they are incorrect.  It has nothing to do with whether or not I like a film.  

[baumer]

3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Baumer is projecting his opinion onto his Thor predictions waaaaaay harder than I ever did with WW  

 

Again not true.  

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Christmas baumer said:

 

Again not true.  

You're claiming that this movie doesn't have good WOM, yet absolutely nothing indicates that yet.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Wouldn't shock me to see it over 2.6 though. This will not touch Spider-man Homecoming's multiplier. Doesn't have summer weekdays. Regardless, $300M+ DOM seems essentially locked up unless it has a crazy drop this weekend. 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

You're claiming that this movie doesn't have good WOM, yet absolutely nothing indicates that yet.

 

I did nothing of the sort.  In fact I have claimed that it's too early in the run to determine what the multiplier will and whether or not it has good wom.  I said the Monday drop indicates that the WOM might not be great and that it is not great amongst regular movie goers.  Would you like me to bring up the posts from a few pages back?

 

It's like clockwork at this site, say anything that isn't beamingly positive about a Marvel film and people get upset and accuse you of blasphemy.

[YM!]

8 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Baumer is projecting his opinion onto his Thor predictions waaaaaay harder than I ever did with WW  

Really? 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Wouldn't shock me to see it over 2.6 though. This will not touch Spider-man Homecoming's multiplier. Doesn't have summer weekdays. Regardless, $300M+ DOM seems essentially locked up unless it has a crazy drop this weekend. 

 

Wouldn't shock me if it does more than 2.6 as well.  

[YM!]

Still I think it’ll be a bit on the 2.45x-2.55x side on legs. Homecoming even though with Iron Man and that frontloaded OW was a origin story in the summer. GV2 was a rare well liked sequel that got the GA interested. Every other MCU sequel not named TWS or GV2 had sub 2.5x legs.

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Wouldn't shock me to see it over 2.6 though. This will not touch Spider-man Homecoming's multiplier. Doesn't have summer weekdays. Regardless, $300M+ DOM seems essentially locked up unless it has a crazy drop this weekend. 

I'm thinking that 2.7 is safe. Getting to a 2.8 multiplier is a different story, but it definitely could happen, depending on how public receives Justice League. So basically what I'm saying is that Ragnarok is going for 329.4, with a shot of going for around $340m, it's probably reaching $800m ww.