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WEDNESDAY NUMBERS| THOR- $6.15M (DOWN 44% FROM TUE)| BAD MOMS 2- $1.61M

By Premium George, in Numbers and Data

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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

For comparison, since we only have one good seasonal one...Dr Strange same Monday to Wednesday drop was 18ish%...Thor's was 26%...

 

Same holiday set up...same holiday week federal holiday coming...

 

If Thor doesn't rise today (Strange got an 18%+ rise), it might not matter if it starts to show legs next week, b/c rapid falls with tons of premier movies coming Nov 17 and then Nov 22 may not let Thor have a chance to ever really develop those legs...

 

The only two premiers are JL and Coco but this drop is worrisome. DS calculations give it a $42.12M second weekend. However this is assuming no Thursday jump.

Edited by YourMother
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Rumpot Box Office Gold

Rumpot

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12 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

See, between the large Monday and now Wednesday drop, I see Tuesday as the outlier "OW fans who are too cheap to pay full price" date...I don't see evidence of real family play yet, at least not larger than normal superhero family play (vs say Spidey's and WW's family play this summer)...

 

Spidey I agree would have a comparable age skew as Thor, but Strange would skew older imo.  We will have to see if these numbers jump substantially for the weekend - I think they will, but who knows.  I would agree that Tuesday doesn't intrinsically mean "kids movies day" but even outside summer it has seen outsized jumps in those movies as with Trolls last year this time.  Also as you had pointed out Fairfax County Schools were closed Monday and Tuesday and per RTHs post a couple days ago Tyson's Corner Mclean (theater I go to as well) was #5 in the country for Thor so that and other closings should've made a dent.

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Brainiac5 Box Office Gold

Brainiac5

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1 minute ago, YourMother said:

The only two premiers are JL and Coco but this drop is worrisome. DS calculations give it a $42.12M second weekend.

This is the only reason why I wasn’t to sure about  300m Dom being a lock and it’s still not off the table (yet) as we have to see what the second weekend drop is gonna be.

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MCKillswitch123 Summer Tentpole

MCKillswitch123

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I mean, no shock the drop was big. After such a big Tuesday bump, it was bound to happen.

 

But before anyone cries doom and gloom, the movie has already crossed 500M worldwide. In terms of global total, it's running confidently ahead of Guardians V2 at the same point. If Justice League doesn't destroy its legs completely, it may have a shot at not just over Spider-Man, but over 900M as well.

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted
Just now, YourMother said:

The only two premiers are JL and Coco but this drop is worrisome. DS calculations give it a $42.12M second weekend.

Wonder will possibly get 2 screens, Star already has 1 for Nov 17 and JL has 4, with theaters maybe going to 5 when they release week of schedules...and now there's 2 (or is it 3 - let's assume most theaters only pick 2) wide releases on Thanksgiving...with the 2 holdovers, Orient Express and Daddy's Home not able to be punted...that's 11 screens before Thor's 1, if JL sticks to 4...now, it will probably keep that 1 for Thanksgiving, but those hoping it will stay til Christmas have got to hope most of the coming movies flop if these legs don't pick up...Spidey rode out the wave b/c it had no direct competition since all family stuff flopped and there were no more supers...

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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

Posted
Posted
Just now, Brainiac5 said:

This is the only reason why I wasn’t to sure about  300m Dom being a lock and it’s still not off the table (yet) as we have to see what the second weekend drop is gonna be.

That’s assuming without a Thursday jump which after further research seems unlikely.

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Brainiac5 Box Office Gold

Brainiac5

Posted
Posted
Just now, MCKillswitch123 said:

I mean, no shock the drop was big. After such a big Tuesday bump, it was bound to happen.

 

But before anyone cries doom and gloom, the movie has already crossed 500M worldwide. In terms of global total, it's running confidently ahead of Guardians V2 at the same point. If Justice League doesn't destroy its legs completely, it may have a shot at not just over Spider-Man, but over 900M as well.

JL is gonna suck it dry ,Mark my words.

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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

Posted
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3 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Why did Strange jump though?

Vetran's Day on Friday so maybe Thu was part of long weeked http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?view=1day&sortdate=2016-11-10&p=.htm

In 2015 VD was on Wed. Big jumps http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?view=1day&sortdate=2015-11-11&order=DESC&p=.htm

 

This year it's on Saturday. So Thu for Thor3 could be lame compared to DS's bump, but Friday bump could be huge.

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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

Posted
Posted
Just now, TwoMisfits said:

Wonder will possibly get 2 screens, Star already has 1 for Nov 17 and JL has 4, with theaters maybe going to 5 when they release week of schedules...and now there's 2 (or is it 3 - let's assume most theaters only pick 2) wide releases on Thanksgiving...with the 2 holdovers, Orient Express and Daddy's Home not able to be punted...that's 11 screens before Thor's 1, if JL sticks to 4...now, it will probably keep that 1 for Thanksgiving, but those hoping it will stay til Christmas have got to hope most of the coming movies flop if these legs don't pick up...Spidey rode out the wave b/c it had no direct competition since all family stuff flopped and there were no more supers...

I’m willing to bet Wonder and The Star share a screen. DH2 will likely get the short end of the stick due to The Star, Wonder, Thor and JL attracting families and lose a screen or share a screen with someone.

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I’m willing to bet Wonder and The Star share a screen. DH2 will likely get the short end of the stick due to The Star, Wonder, Thor and JL attracting families and lose a screen or share a screen with someone.

Have you looked at the sales of Wonder - it already has a full screen (as does the Star) and it's practically got sell outs for Thursday night and Saturday morning at some places...this seems to be hitting the right zeitgeist for parents as perfect alternative programming that weekend...

 

Heck, the Star, getting a smaller theater, has only 2 rows left for its Saturday prime afternoon show...these movies are moving tickets without being heard from...that's huge for originals prior to even seeing reviews or ads or press...

 

If nothing else, these sales guarantee a non-share, but full screens through Thanksgiving...

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baumer Cinematic Universe

baumer

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Posted

 Thor is not going to jump to jump to 8 million on Thursday lol. If anything it might go to seven million but even that is up in the air. Well this drop looks kind of bad it's still only about six or seven percent higher than I thought it would be

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