MagnarTheGreat Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 (edited) On 12/29/2018 at 10:22 PM, MovieMan89 said: Disagree. The Fandango yearly poll Is often overlooked for how accurate when it comes to gauging if a movie is going to be huge or not. If you go back and look at them through the years, whatever makes the top 5 has almost always opened big at least. The only movies to miss the top 5 anticipated on their respective year this decade and still gross over 400 are Frozen and Jumanji. It’s the 6-10 spots that tend to be a bit shakier. But it’s always a good sign for a movie being massive if it’s in the top 5 of that poll and a bad sign if it’s not. Domestic 2019 Fandango Anticipated Rank Actual First Weekend Rank Actual Total Box Office Rank Avengers: End Game #1 TBD TBD Captain Marvel #2 TBD TBD Star Wars: Episode IX #3 TBD TBD Spider-Man: Far From Home #4 TBD TBD Toy Story 4 #5 TBD TBD Glass #6 TBD TBD The Lion King #7 TBD TBD Aladdin #8 TBD TBD Dumbo #9 TBD TBD Joker #10 TBD TBD There's notable omissions here like Frozen 2, their survey may underestimate movies that appeal to children. Here's the domestic Fandango charts for the past 4 years with the actual results: Spoiler Domestic 2018 Fandango Anticipated Rank Actual First Weekend Rank Actual Total Box Office Rank Avengers: Infinity War #1 #1 ($258M) #2 ($679M) Black Panther #2 #2 ($202M) #1 ($700M) Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom #3 #4 ($148M) #4 ($417M) Untitled Deadpool Sequel #4 #5 ($126M) #5 ($318M) Solo: A Star Wars Story #5 #6 ($84M) #9 ($214M) Incredibles 2 #6 #3 ($183M) #3 ($609M) Fantastic Beasts: TCoG #7 #12 ($62M) #19 ($157M) A Wrinkle in Time #8 #29 ($33M) #30 ($100M) X-Men: Dark Phoenix #9 n/a n/a Ocean’s 8 #10 #22 ($42M) #21 ($140M) (2018 ranks could change because releases are still playing.) Domestic 2017 Fandango Anticipated Rank Actual First Weekend Rank Actual Total Box Office Rank Star Wars: Episode VIII #1 #1 ($220M) #1 ($620M) Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2 #2 #3 ($146M) #5 ($390M) Beauty and the Beast #3 #2 ($175M) #2 ($504M) Wonder Woman #4 #7 ($103M) #3 ($413M) Spider-Man: Homecoming #5 #6 ($117M) #6 ($334M) Justice League #6 #9 ($94M) #10 ($229M) The Fate of the Furious #7 #8 ($99M) #12 ($226M) Fifty Shades Darker #8 #20 ($47M) #27 ($115M) Logan #9 #10 ($88M) #11 ($226M) Despicable Me 3 #10 #11 ($72M) #9 ($265M) Domestic 2016 Fandango Anticipated Rank Actual First Weekend Rank Actual Total Box Office Rank Rogue One: A Star Wars Story #1 #3 ($155M) #1 ($532M) Finding Dory #2 #4 ($135M) #2 ($486M) Batman v Superman: DoJ #3 #2 ($166M) #8 ($330M) Untitled Jason Bourne Movie #4 #14 ($59M) #15 ($162M) Captain America: Civil War #5 #1 ($179M) #3 ($408M) Star Trek Beyond #6 #13 ($59M) #16 ($159M) Independence Day: Resurgence #7 #19 ($41M) #27 ($103M) X-Men: Apocalypse #8 #12 ($66M) #17 ($155M) Zoolander No. 2 #9 #72 ($14M) #91 ($29M) The Jungle Book #10 #8 ($103M) #5 ($364M) Domestic 2015 Fandango Anticipated Rank Actual First Weekend Rank Actual Total Box Office Rank Star Wars: The Force Awakens #1 #1 ($248M) #1 ($937M) Avengers: Age of Ultron #2 #3 ($191M) #3 ($459M) The Hunger Games: M-P2 #3 #6 ($103M) #7 ($282M) Fifty Shades of Grey #4 #8 ($85M) #17 ($166M) Jurassic World #5 #2 ($209M) #2 ($652M) There's always movies that sneak into the Top charts that Fandango doesn't see coming and movies that are overly represented. The Top 3 have been represented each time and it's been pretty close to accurate for the top grossing movie (A:IW and Black Panther were fairly close but in the reverse order). Edited December 31, 2018 by MagnarTheGreat 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JGAR4LIFE Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 LMAO at 2016; Jason Bourne beating Captain America: Civil War Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCKillswitch123 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Predicts for top 10 biggest hits of the Summer: The Lion King - 700+ Avengers: Endgame - 660 (I know it opens in April, but c'mon, let's not pretend like its opening isn't basically the beginning of Summer season at this point) Spider-Man: Far From Home - 350 Pokémon: Detective Pikachu - 320 Toy Story 4 - 280 The Secret Life Of Pets 2 - 260 Aladdin - 250 Godzilla: King Of The Monsters - 210 Once Upon A Time In Hollywood - 190-200 Hobbs & Shaw - 160-170 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PPZVGOS Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 3 hours ago, Brainbug said: And heres where we fundamentally disagree. After Attack of the Clones, the Star Wars franchise was officially declared dead and ruined by the "fans". Its a never-ending circle of a part of the SW fanbase which is incredibly hatefull to nearly everything related to new Star Wars films that come out. And still, after Attack of the Clones, Revenge of the Sith would go on to become the biggest hit of 2005. Because in my eyes, the vast majority of SW-moviegoers - the GA - doesnt care one bit about internet hatred for Star Wars. All the GA wants is an entertaining film that pleases them. And as long as Episode IX delivers exactly that, it will be a giant hit. Domestically, i see no real danger for main episode SW films. Overseas on the other hand is a different question. Okay, neither of us has a crystal ball. Maybe you are right and I am wrong. Maybe also somehow Episode 9 is great and takes theaters by storm, but if I had to bet, I would say that it won't do that well, meaning that it will gross even less than SW8. I hope we are here this time next year and see what happens then. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 5 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said: Okay, neither of us has a crystal ball. Maybe you are right and I am wrong. Maybe also somehow Episode 9 is great and takes theaters by storm, but if I had to bet, I would say that it won't do that well, meaning that it will gross even less than SW8. I hope we are here this time next year and see what happens then. Yeah, absolutely. What makes it even harder to predict Episode IX atm is that we dont have any marketing material. A Trailer would be really helpfull to give us the first hint. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 4 hours ago, MagnarTheGreat said: Domestic 2019 Fandango Anticipated Rank Actual First Weekend Rank Actual Total Box Office Rank Avengers: End Game #1 TBD TBD Captain Marvel #2 TBD TBD Star Wars: Episode IX #3 TBD TBD Spider-Man: Far From Home #4 TBD TBD Toy Story 4 #5 TBD TBD Glass #6 TBD TBD The Lion King #7 TBD TBD Aladdin #8 TBD TBD Dumbo #9 TBD TBD Joker #10 TBD TBD There's notable omissions here like Frozen 2, their survey may underestimate movies that appeal to children. Here's the domestic Fandango charts for the past 4 years with the actual results: Hide contents Domestic 2018 Fandango Anticipated Rank Actual First Weekend Rank Actual Total Box Office Rank Avengers: Infinity War #1 #1 ($258M) #2 ($679M) Black Panther #2 #2 ($202M) #1 ($700M) Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom #3 #4 ($148M) #4 ($417M) Untitled Deadpool Sequel #4 #5 ($126M) #5 ($318M) Solo: A Star Wars Story #5 #6 ($84M) #9 ($214M) Incredibles 2 #6 #3 ($183M) #3 ($609M) Fantastic Beasts: TCoG #7 #12 ($62M) #19 ($157M) A Wrinkle in Time #8 #29 ($33M) #30 ($100M) X-Men: Dark Phoenix #9 n/a n/a Ocean’s 8 #10 #22 ($42M) #21 ($140M) (2018 ranks could change because releases are still playing.) Domestic 2017 Fandango Anticipated Rank Actual First Weekend Rank Actual Total Box Office Rank Star Wars: Episode VIII #1 #1 ($220M) #1 ($620M) Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2 #2 #3 ($146M) #5 ($390M) Beauty and the Beast #3 #2 ($175M) #2 ($504M) Wonder Woman #4 #7 ($103M) #3 ($413M) Spider-Man: Homecoming #5 #6 ($117M) #6 ($334M) Justice League #6 #9 ($94M) #10 ($229M) The Fate of the Furious #7 #8 ($99M) #12 ($226M) Fifty Shades Darker #8 #20 ($47M) #27 ($115M) Logan #9 #10 ($88M) #11 ($226M) Despicable Me 3 #10 #11 ($72M) #9 ($265M) Domestic 2016 Fandango Anticipated Rank Actual First Weekend Rank Actual Total Box Office Rank Rogue One: A Star Wars Story #1 #3 ($155M) #1 ($532M) Finding Dory #2 #4 ($135M) #2 ($486M) Batman v Superman: DoJ #3 #2 ($166M) #8 ($330M) Untitled Jason Bourne Movie #4 #14 ($59M) #15 ($162M) Captain America: Civil War #5 #1 ($179M) #3 ($408M) Star Trek Beyond #6 #13 ($59M) #16 ($159M) Independence Day: Resurgence #7 #19 ($41M) #27 ($103M) X-Men: Apocalypse #8 #12 ($66M) #17 ($155M) Zoolander No. 2 #9 #72 ($14M) #91 ($29M) The Jungle Book #10 #8 ($103M) #5 ($364M) Domestic 2015 Fandango Anticipated Rank Actual First Weekend Rank Actual Total Box Office Rank Star Wars: The Force Awakens #1 #1 ($248M) #1 ($937M) Avengers: Age of Ultron #2 #3 ($191M) #3 ($459M) The Hunger Games: M-P2 #3 #6 ($103M) #7 ($282M) Fifty Shades of Grey #4 #8 ($85M) #17 ($166M) Jurassic World #5 #2 ($209M) #2 ($652M) There's always movies that sneak into the Top charts that Fandango doesn't see coming and movies that are overly represented. The Top 3 have been represented each time and it's been pretty close to accurate for the top grossing movie (A:IW and Black Panther were fairly close but in the reverse order). Right, it gets sketchy after the top 3 and top 5, but the biggest movies are pretty much always high up there. Which is why I think it’s proof at how overestimated TLK is around here. It should have at least cracked their top 3 if it was going to be a juggernaut, or top 5 for sure. Sure it’s a family movie which is at a disadvantage on these polls, but that was also my point as to why I’m saying more demand than we think may be there for TS4 after all for it to crack the top 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulder Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 5 hours ago, Lordmandeep said: I think the problems the prequels and the new films have been quite different though. The prequels strength was the story and the path of Anakin while the weakness was the acting and such. The new films strength is the acting and that its very well shot but a lot of the backlash it seems to be is over the story so far and that lacks a clear focus. Now episode 9 may fix that. The PT's story was absolutely torn to shreds at the time. The complaints over a SW opening crawl mentioning taxes are infamous to this day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB33 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 13 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: Right, it gets sketchy after the top 3 and top 5, but the biggest movies are pretty much always high up there. Which is why I think it’s proof at how overestimated TLK is around here. It should have at least cracked their top 3 if it was going to be a juggernaut, or top 5 for sure. Sure it’s a family movie which is at a disadvantage on these polls, but that was also my point as to why I’m saying more demand than we think may be there for TS4 after all for it to crack the top 5. Where was BEAUTY AND THE BEAST on the 2017 poll? Was it in the top 3? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KP1025 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 34 minutes ago, JB33 said: Where was BEAUTY AND THE BEAST on the 2017 poll? Was it in the top 3? Yes, it was #3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedijake Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 For the people who are predicting around $200-$250 million for Aladdin, 1. What are you thinking the OW will be? 2. Are you pinning this prediction on the Memorial Day opening? 3. What kind of multiplier do you actually think this will get? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Atom's Top 10 anticipated Quote Avengers 4: Endgame, starring Scarlett Johansson, Robert Downey Jr., Chris Hemsworth, Chris Evans, and Mark Ruffalo topped multiple lists by wide margins, including overall "most anticipated," "most anticipated superhero movie," and "most excited ensemble cast to see." https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/avengers-4-endgame-is-the-most-anticipated-movie-of-2019-finds-atom-tickets-survey-300771502.html Avengers 4: Endgame Captain Marvel Spider-Man: Far From Home Toy Story 4 The Lion King Star Wars: Episode IX Aladdin X-Men: Dark Phoenix Glass Jumanji Sequel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KP1025 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 I wonder if Frozen 2 missing is because there's been zero marketing and not even much general news about the film other than the release date. Detective Pikachu missing despite the highly successful trailer is equally surprising. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 (edited) No Detective Pikachu is a bit alarming if it wants to make the top 5 or the predictions that we all are craving but they still have a few months to fix it. 44 minutes ago, jedijake said: For the people who are predicting around $200-$250 million for Aladdin, 1. What are you thinking the OW will be? 2. Are you pinning this prediction on the Memorial Day opening? 3. What kind of multiplier do you actually think this will get? 1.) $85M-$90M OW/$105M-$115M 4 day/$235M-$260M, I do expect a hefty amount overseas though say $600M-$750M as the release dates will be more spread out. The main reason why I suspect a domestic underperformance is primarily the competitive landscape for families, Disney having to juggle marketing for Endgame, TS4 and Lion King with it and when Disney juggles marketing, one or two suffers, and tepid response not mention the track record of Guy Ritchie. If this opened in say November 2019 or 2020 I'd be much more optimistic. 2.) Sure, if I'm wrong I'm wrong and will accept my mistake 3.) The average multiple for a Disney live action remake is about 3.17x, the average Memorial Day opener 4 day represents 44.33% when using the top 10. My guess is Aladdin will have a multiple of 2.76x-2.89x but I suspect the first two weekend drops should be harsh, as I suspect they'll be fans on OW and Pets 2 which even though will drop from the first, is the first fully animated major movie since Dragon 3, and will steal a significant amount of it's family audiences but summer weekdays will help as after Pets 2 it's smooth sailing. Edited December 31, 2018 by YourMother the Edgelord Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JGAR4LIFE Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 1 hour ago, TalismanRing said: Atom's Top 10 anticipated https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/avengers-4-endgame-is-the-most-anticipated-movie-of-2019-finds-atom-tickets-survey-300771502.html Avengers 4: Endgame Captain Marvel Spider-Man: Far From Home Toy Story 4 The Lion King Star Wars: Episode IX Aladdin X-Men: Dark Phoenix Glass Jumanji Sequel Dark Phoenix and Jumanji 2? How are these lists even made? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Safeno Rdz Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 On 12/28/2018 at 9:47 PM, jedijake said: Aladdin's gonna make a LOT more than $543 million. I'd say at least $800 million. People underestimate the immense popularity. Well, Cinderella is way more popular than Aladdin, and it grossed $543, even with the good reviews... Aladdin hasn't had good reactions so far to it's first images. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Safeno Rdz Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 On 12/29/2018 at 7:59 AM, jedijake said: 9. SLOP 2 $270 mill / $750 mill (it will be somewhat overshadowed by TS4) Well, Inside out was a masterpiece, and it still got overshadowed by Minions in 2015, so I think there is a big chance that SLOP2 will end up surprising everyone and being bigger than TS4... besides, many Pixar fans don't agree with a 4th entry of the franchise, and TS is no longer a big thing among this generation's kids. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2kt09 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, Safeno Rdz said: Well, Cinderella is way more popular than Aladdin, and it grossed $543, even with the good reviews... Aladdin hasn't had good reactions so far to it's first images. The music is a big factor. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MagnarTheGreat Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 (edited) Top 10 Domestic Movie Unadjusted Box Office (2009-2018) Year Total Average Median 2018* $3.852B $385.2M $292.0M 2017 $3.801B $380.1M $362.0M 2016 $3.789B $378.9M $363.5M 2015 $4.005B $400.5M $344.5M 2014 $2.736B $273.6M $256.4M 2013 $3.168B $316.8M $282.6M 2012 $3.314B $331.4M $297.7M 2011 $2.489B $248.9M $225.5M 2010 $2.859B $285.9M $294.3M 2009 $3.263B $326.3M $285.2M * 2018 results not final best value in green; worst value in red Top 10 Domestic Movie Unadjusted Box Office (2009-2018) Year Highest 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th Lowest 2018* $700.1M $678.8M $608.6M $416.8M $318.5M $265.5M $220.2M $216.6M $213.8M $213.2M 2017 $620.2M $504.0M $412.6M $404.5M $389.8M $334.2M $327.5M $315.1M $264.6M $229.0M 2016 $532.2M $486.3M $408.1M $368.4M $364.0M $363.1M $341.3M $330.4M $325.1M $270.4M 2015 $936.7M $652.3M $459.0M $356.5M $353.0M $336.0M $281.7M $228.4M $201.2M $200.1M 2014 $350.1M $337.1M $333.2M $259.8M $257.8M $255.1M $245.4M $241.4M $233.9M $222.5M 2013 $424.7M $409.0M $400.7M $368.1M $291.0M $274.1M $268.5M $258.4M $238.7M $234.9M 2012 $623.4M $448.1M $408.0M $304.4M $303.0M $292.3M $262.0M $237.3M $218.8M $216.4M 2011 $381.0M $352.4M $281.3M $254.5M $241.1M $209.8M $209.4M $191.5M $186.8M $181.0M 2010 $415.0M $334.2M $312.4M $300.5M $296.0M $292.6M $251.5M $238.7M $217.6M $200.8M 2009 $749.8M $402.1M $302.0M $296.6M $293.0M $277.3M $257.7M $256.0M $219.6M $209.0M Avg. $573.3M $460.4M $392.6M $333.0M $310.7M $290.0M $266.5M $251.4M $232.0M $217.7M Med. $576.2M $428.6M $404.4M $330.4M $299.5M $284.8M $259.9M $240.1M $219.2M $214.8M * 2018 results not final best value in green; worst value in red * 2018 results not final Edited January 5, 2019 by MagnarTheGreat 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Gato Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 (edited) 1) Avengers: Endgame 2) The Lion King 3) Detective Pikachu 4) Frozen 2 5) Hobbs & Shaw 6) Toy Story 4 7) Star Wars IX 8. Spider-Man: Far From Home 9) Shazam 10) Secret Life of Pets 2 Aladdin, Dumbo and Capatain Marvel are going to underperform relative to expectations. Godzilla/Joker will just miss the top 10, thanks to Hobbs and Shaw. I also don't know if Jumanji will be ready in time for a 2019 release, so i left it off the list. Edited January 2, 2019 by El Gato Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 LOL at people predicting only 300m for Pikakchu. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...