Top Grossing Movies of 2019 Predicts

[expensiveho]

10 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

It's cause some people thought Civil War showed signs of a ceiling for the team ups. Clearly Infinity War and Endgame have proven Civil War was a big anomaly.

Infinity War proved that CW didn't perform as an Avengers movie, but at EG's rate I don't even think Ultron was an Avengers movie either 

[The Panda]

5 hours ago, Rorschach said:

That was an OW prediction!

[Royce]

Call me crazy but I still think

The Lion King DOM and WW > Endgame DOM and WW

[MattW]

1 hour ago, Royce said:

Call me crazy but I still think

The Lion King DOM and WW > Endgame DOM and WW

Yeah just a lil crazy

[Legion Again]

My biggest takeaway was just what a huge % of movies predicted didn’t release at the time they were planned when this post was made/won’t release at all.

[MCKillswitch123]

On 5/2/2019 at 10:15 PM, expensiveho said:

 Infinity War proved that CW didn't perform as an Avengers movie, but at EG's rate I don't even think Ultron was an Avengers movie either 

Ultron performed like a sequel with sequelitis. It opened nearly on par with the 1st movie (its opening was only diminished by the sports events on Saturday), and then wom wasn't extraordinarily good by any stretch of the imagination as people were just like "meh" and sorta gave up.

 

Civil War, to me, is extremely complicated to analyze. I would say it performed like a really, REALLY big solo movie (that's why it never surprised me that it opened in the Iron Man 3 range, since that's where I had it pegged before overprediction-mania started around March/April 2016), that was both elevated and wounded by its own concept. And the overpredictions made sense, since the movie was basically an Avengers movie, only with the word "Captain America" in the title. One can still argue that the OW wouldn't have been anywhere near as high as it was without the amount of characters in the movie, and if it had been more of a crowdpleaser, it could have actually topped Ultron's numbers. But alas, it performed like a Captain America movie featuring almost every major Avenger + some new major characters alongside him, and not like an Avengers movie. The concept of heroes vs. heroes I also think wound up hurting the movie as audiences aren't really fans of seeing the heroes beating each other up rather than beating bad guys up, on top of the movie having a slowish pace and a bloated plot.

 

But yes, Infinity War and Endgame proved that those two films were definitely more of an exception rather than the rule. But even Ultron could have followed the rule a little closer in slightly less unfavorable circumstances (at least when it comes to its OW).

 

@Royce Yyyyyeah, that's not just crazy..... that's kinda ludicrous. Good luck topping 850M DOM and 2.7B WW. If The Lion King makes 700 DOM and 2B WW, that's amazing enough.

Edited June 7, 2019 by MCKillswitch123

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Some of these Secret Life of Pets 2 predictions......

 

A new Despicable Me franchise for Illumination this is not I think.

[jedijake]

Disney could end up with 

1 movie over $800 million (done)

1 movie in the $700 millions (TROS or TLK)

1 movie in the $600 millions (TROS or TLK)

1 movie in the $500 millions (Frozen 2)

2 movies in the $400 millions (TS4 and CM)

1 movie in the $300 millions (Aladdin-looking more and more likely every day)

No movies in the $200 millions (unless Aladdin misses $300 million barely)

2 movies in the $100 millions (Dumbo and Maleficent 2)

 

At THIS point, $4 billion domestic for the Mouse House seems certain.

[Legion Again]

3 hours ago, jedijake said:

Disney could end up with 

1 movie over $800 million (done)

1 movie in the $700 millions (TROS or TLK)

1 movie in the $600 millions (TROS or TLK)

1 movie in the $500 millions (Frozen 2)

2 movies in the $400 millions (TS4 and CM)

1 movie in the $300 millions (Aladdin-looking more and more likely every day)

No movies in the $200 millions (unless Aladdin misses $300 million barely)

2 movies in the $100 millions (Dumbo and Maleficent 2)

 

At THIS point, $4 billion domestic for the Mouse House seems certain.

Okay, but what if instead we move TS4 into the 500s, Frozen into the 600s, and use Maleficent to cover the 200s (~25% fall from first one adjusted gets there).

 

And then Penguins covers the 000s, it’s perfect. 

[jedijake]

14 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Okay, but what if instead we move TS4 into the 500s, Frozen into the 600s, and use Maleficent to cover the 200s (~25% fall from first one adjusted gets there).

 

And then Penguins covers the 000s, it’s perfect. 

Then it's better.

[MattW]

On 5/30/2018 at 9:41 AM, water said:

i haven't flexed my box office muscles in a while so i thought this would be a good exercise. here are my very partisan predictions/wishes for everything i think will do over 100m dom, in order of release

 

title	ow	multi	dom	os	ww
httyd3	38	3.6	137	400	537
captain marvel	120	3.5	420	770	1190
shazam	43	2.4	103	250	353
avengers 4	300	3.4	1020	1800	2820

 

Vs the actual ww numbers:

520

1128

363

2750

 

Solid predictions there.

[Legion Again]

9 minutes ago, MattW said:

 

Vs the actual ww numbers:

520

1128

363

2750

 

Solid predictions there.

At first I was like “wow, da god.”    

 

Then I followed the quote back 😛 

[The GOAT]

On 6/6/2019 at 8:49 PM, Royce said:

Call me crazy but I still think

The Lion King DOM and WW > Endgame DOM and WW

I will not accept this, even if it happens.

Edited June 12, 2019 by The GOAT

[tupek]

On 6/7/2019 at 11:20 AM, Thanos Legion said:

Okay, but what if instead we move TS4 into the 500s, Frozen into the 600s, and use Maleficent to cover the 200s (~25% fall from first one adjusted gets there).

 

And then Penguins covers the 000s, it’s perfect. 

Frozen in the 500s is enough..

[Darth Lehnsherr]

On 1/29/2019 at 9:19 AM, Darth Lehnsherr said:

1. Avengers: Endgame 270/700/2.2B

2. The Lion King 240/750/2B

3.Frozen 2 150/500/1.25B

4. Star Wars Episode IX 190/600/1.2B

5. Toy Story 4 150/450/1.05B

6. Detective Pikachu 110/300/1B

7. Spider-Man: Far From Home 140/360/950

8. Captain Marvel 160/430/950

9. Hobbs and Shaw 70/170/900

10. Secret Life of Pets 2 100/320/860

 

Other Potentials

Jumanji 3 70/330/850

 

So far my Pika Pika and Secret Life of Pets 2 predictions look embarrassing. Also lol at me for not even considering Aladdin for the Top 10 too. 

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

FANDANGO

1. “Avengers: Endgame” (April 26)

2. “Captain Marvel” (March 😎

3. “Star Wars: Episode IX” (Dec. 20)

4. “Spider-Man: Far From Home” (July 5)

5. “Toy Story 4” (June 21)

6. “Glass” (Jan. 18)

7. “The Lion King” (July 19)

8. “Aladdin” (May 24)

9. “Dumbo” (March 29)

10. “Joker” (Oct. 4)

 

ATOM

1.Avengers: Endgame
2.Captain Marvel
3.Spider-Man: Far From Home
4.Toy Story 4
5.The Lion King
6.Star Wars: Episode IX
7.Aladdin
8.X-Men: Dark Phoenix
9.Glass
10.Jumanji Sequel

 

 

So these were the most anticipated lists from Fandango and Atom and for the most part its turning out accurate.

 

Notable misses would be Xmen, Glass and Dumbo but the first two could just be fanboy bias on these surveys. Star Wars and Jumanji should make bank easily during holidays and Joker has potential. 

 

Notable absence of Frozen 2 on both lists due to lack of marketing I would assume. 

[MovieMan89]

Fandango's most anticipated Top 5's have been incredibly accurate this whole decade for the most part if you go back and look. The big misses have consistently been in the 6-10 range, which is true again this year. 

 

Edited July 10, 2019 by MovieMan89

[water]

On 5/30/2018 at 8:41 AM, water said:

i haven't flexed my box office muscles in a while so i thought this would be a good exercise. here are my very partisan predictions/wishes for everything i think will do over 100m dom, in order of release

 

title	ow	multi	dom	os	ww
lego movie 2	45	3.3	149	150	299
dark phoenix	58	2.9	168	380	548
httyd3	38	3.6	137	400	537
captain marvel	120	3.5	420	770	1190
shazam	43	2.4	103	250	353
avengers 4	300	3.4	1020	1800	2820
aladdin	151	3.2	483	950	1433
godzilla 2	63	2.6	164	350	514
slop2	82	3.2	262	430	692
men in black	63	3.0	189	550	739
toy story 4	75	3.4	255	550	805
spider-man 2	143	2.7	386	750	1136
the lion king	215	4.0	860	1500	2360
hobbs & shaw	65	2.4	156	440	596
artemis fowl	39	2.6	101	150	251
it 2	70	2.5	175	240	415
abominable	55	2.6	143	500	643
ww2	125	2.6	325	450	775
bond 25	85	3.0	255	800	1055
death on the nile	35	3.3	116	300	416
frozen 2	110	3.5	385	1000	1385
star wars 9	185	4.2	777	777	1554
wicked	35	3.5	123	100	223

so as we are on the eve of lion king

• i was right about lego flopping, it surpassed floppage expectations
• dark phoenix idk what i was thinking i knew it was a disaster
• httyd3 now that i'm looking on bom i didn't even realize it did pretty well dom. nailed it ww tho
• cm nailed it although i should have realized ow would be bigger and more regular legs
• shazam nailed it although i think i went so low on dom because i was making fun of dc so much at the time 😂
• endgame NAILED IT bow down
• aladdin i was too bullish but i will say that given how it turned out to be a ginormous success (like... 1b is happening disney will find the money) i was accurate in spirit. also best picture
• godzilla 2 well i saw the drop coming but damn
• slop2 again saw the drop but holy crap os 💀
• mib 😢
• ts4 not sure what my reasoning was tbh but ironically i might be close on ww
• ffh i don't think i even realized it was opening on a tuesday or whatever, i think i'll be close though

ok...

• tlk i'm almost tempted to stand by. right now they're saying previews up to 25m and comparing to jurassic world and incredibles 2 (only other big mid-summer movies) both had 18m thurs and 200 180 ow, so 25 could translate to 200-250 ow....
• hobbs & shaw definitely low on os, upping to like 500-800 os i guess?
• maleficent 2 i'm seeing 60/190/600/790. not sure though
• frozen 2 idk what i was thinking ow will probably be like at LEAST 150 but maybe 200 if i get hype about the songs, 500 dom (600? that feels too high but it also feels like it should be higher than incredibles 2), os probably like 1.2b, 1.7b ww... sounds crazy to say that but i feel like the math checks out

[MattW]

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio*  Filter A24 Amazon Annapurna Aviron Briarcliff BST BV ENTMP Fathom Focus Fox FoxS FUN LG/S LGF MGM Neon Orion Par. PFR RAtt. SGem Sony SPC STX UAR Uni. WB WB (NL) ALL	Worldwide	Domestic / %		Overseas / %
1	Avengers: Endgame	BV	$2,794.5	$857.4	30.7%	$1,937.1	69.3%
2	The Lion King (2019)	BV	$1,195.8	$430.9	36.0%	$764.9	64.0%
3	Captain Marvel	BV	$1,128.3	$426.8	37.8%	$701.4	62.2%
4	Spider-Man: Far from Home	Sony	$1,075.3	$360.3	33.5%	$715.0	66.5%
5	Aladdin (2019)	BV	$1,025.6	$350.4	34.2%	$675.2	65.8%
6	Toy Story 4	BV	$959.3	$410.1	42.7%	$549.2	57.3%

 

5 billion dollar movies so far with a 6th soon to come.  Frozen and Star Wars are basically shoe-ins putting the year at 8.  Outside shot for Jumanji, nothing else gets close (and even jumanji I think will drop pretty big).  2018 and 2015 both had 5 so this year is a pretty big step up for high end movies.

[Legion Again]

2019 will put 8 movies in the WW top 45 (probably top 40). Comparison to past years:   

 

2018 5 (5)

2017 5 (5)  

2016 5 (5)  

2015 7 (6)  

2014 2 (2) yikes!  

2013 5 (5)  

2012 6 (6) TASM 46th  

2011 4 (3)  

2010 6 (5) 

2009 7 (7) 

2008 6 (4)

2007 7 (6)  

2006 5 (5)  

2005 6 (6) 

2004 8 (8)

2003 6 (5) 

2002 6 (4)  

2001 7 (7)

2000 4 (3)

 

So it’s pretty typical to get 5-7 movies per year in the top 45. From now on that will mean 1B+, not too far from now it will mean 1.2B+. Basic billie inflation, won’t be long before we’ve got over 75 and we’re averaging double digits a year.    

 

2019 does still stick out as being above historical norms, with a single year making up 20% of the top 40 not having happened since 2004 (Shrek 2, Azkaban, SM2, The Incredibles, Passion of the Christ, The Day After Tomorrow, Meet The Fockers, and Troy). In fact those 8 all managed to make it into the top 35, we’ll see if 2019 can manage the same.

 

Spoiler

Also this is so, so, not a big deal but I just can’t help myself

 

*shoo-in

 

Edited August 5, 2019 by Thanos Legion