Top Grossing Movies of 2019 Predicts

[Porthos]

On 6/6/2019 at 8:49 PM, Royce said:

Call me crazy but I still think

The Lion King DOM and WW > Endgame DOM and WW

 

[Legion Again]

TLK DOM+TLK DOM+TLK WW will just about do the trick  

[KP1025]

 

On 1/5/2019 at 12:36 PM, KP1025 said:

2015's Top 5 WW combined for $7.82 billion. Even with the juggernauts releasing in 2019, beating that number won't be easy.

 

 

Looking back at my post from the beginning of the year, looks like 2019's Top 5 WW combined will beat 2015's record after all. Endgame's huge overperformance helped a lot. 

 

Also:

On 1/5/2019 at 7:45 AM, xxoo said:

Mark my words Frozen and ToyStory not crossing a billion 

 

[Legion Again]

Spoiler

 

On 8/4/2019 at 6:21 PM, Arendelle Legion said:

2019 will put 8 movies in the WW top 45 (probably top 40). Comparison to past years:   

 

2018 5 (5)

2017 5 (5)  

2016 5 (5)  

2015 7 (6)  

2014 2 (2) yikes!  

2013 5 (5)  

2012 6 (6) TASM 46th  

2011 4 (3)  

2010 6 (5) 

2009 7 (7) 

2008 6 (4)

2007 7 (6)  

2006 5 (5)  

2005 6 (6) 

2004 8 (8)

2003 6 (5) 

2002 6 (4)  

2001 7 (7)

2000 4 (3)

 

So it’s pretty typical to get 5-7 movies per year in the top 45. From now on that will mean 1B+, not too far from now it will mean 1.2B+. Basic billie inflation, won’t be long before we’ve got over 75 and we’re averaging double digits a year.    

 

2019 does still stick out as being above historical norms, with a single year making up 20% of the top 40 not having happened since 2004 (Shrek 2, Azkaban, SM2, The Incredibles, Passion of the Christ, The Day After Tomorrow, Meet The Fockers, and Troy). In fact those 8 all managed to make it into the top 35, we’ll see if 2019 can manage the same.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Also this is so, so, not a big deal but I just can’t help myself

 

*shoo-in

 

 

 

Thanks to Joker, it seems 2019 is actually putting 9 movies in the all-time top 45 and top 40, which seems to be entirely unprecedented this century. Even working relatively rather than with nominal $ figures, a truly stunning and remarkable year.   
 

I feel confident that 2020 will field at least 3, perhaps up to 7 (if I had to pick a single number, 4). That would be on the weak side but at least not 2014 tier.

[john2000]

lol at these iw and endgame predictions ,understimated as fuck, idk what it will take for people to stop be so sure about marvel, no i am not saying that every mcu movie from now on will hit 1 bill, but still i cant understand how people still saying things like this  ," the character isnt popular, noone cares about that character, marvel reached its pick etc etc"

[darthdevidem01]

1 hour ago, john2000 said:

lol at these iw and endgame predictions ,understimated as fuck, idk what it will take for people to stop be so sure about marvel, no i am not saying that every mcu movie from now on will hit 1 bill, but still i cant understand how people still saying things like this  ," the character isnt popular, noone cares about that character, marvel reached its pick etc etc"

This was after age of ultrons 'disappointing' domestic gross...pre infinity war

No one got Star Wars as low as 500's yikes

Edited January 6, 2020 by darthdevidem01

[john2000]

16 minutes ago, darthdevidem01 said:

This was after age of ultrons 'disappointing' domestic gross...pre infinity war

No one got Star Wars as low as 500's yikes

dissapointing or not 380-400 million for iw ? thats ridiculous  , 450-500 would be more reasonable

[charlie Jatinder]

On 1/20/2019 at 9:53 PM, Jedi Jat said:

IMO the worldwide leaderboard.

 

1. The Lion King = 2.3 Billion (-$0.65bn Down 1)

2. Avengers: Endgame = $2.25 Billion (+$0.55bn Up 1)

3. Detective Pikachu = $1.25 Billion (-$0.8Bn lol)

4. Frozen 2 = $1.2 Billion (+$0.3Bn Up 1)

5. Toy Story 4 = $1.2 Billion (-0.13Bn Down 1)

5. Star Wars 9 = $1.15 Billion (-$0.08Bn)

6. Captain Marvel = $1.1 Billion

7. Far From Home = $1 Billion (+$0.1Bn)

8. Aladdin = $925mn (+$0.13Bn)

9. Pets 2 = $900mn (lol)

10. Jumanji 3 = $900mn (-$0.1Bn)

 

 

[Avatree]

15 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

 

Nice one on the Pikachu 🤣

 

Is Frozen 2 really on track for $1.5b?

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, Avatree said:

Nice one on the Pikachu 🤣

 

Is Frozen 2 really on track for $1.5b?

Will miss by 25-30mn.

[john2000]

31 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Will miss by 25-30mn.

hope somehow it can reach it, still fantastic though

[Gokai Red]

On 1/16/2019 at 10:18 PM, Gokai Red said:

Rank. Movie - WW/DOM/OS

All numbers rounded to the nearest 25th, and presented in Millions of Dollars

If there is a tie in the WW gross, then the DOM gross is used as the tiebreaker

 

1. Avengers: Endgame - 1925/625/1300

2. The Lion King - 1400/600/800

3. Frozen 2 - 1300/450/850

4. Star Wars: Episode IX - 1250/600/650

5. Spider-Man: Far From Home - 1025/375/650

6. Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw - 1000/200/800

7. Toy Story 4 - 975/350/625

8. Jumanji 3 - 925/350/575

9. Captain Marvel - 900/375/525

10. The Secret Life of Pets 2 - 900/325/575

 

First year where the entire Top 10 breaks $900M

 

Let's see how I did. 

 

Green text represents my prediction being within 9.9% right (either positively or negatively - hint, there's not that many). Yellow text represents my prediction being within 10-19.9% correct. Red text means that I was more than 20% off on my prediction. The percentages are based on (My prediction) divided by (What the film actually grossed), so as to measure my own ability to predict the box office.

 

1. Avengers: Endgame - 1925 (-31.2%)/625 (-27.2%)/1300 (-33.0%) - Way off on this, but then again, who wasn't. OS alone outgrossed what I thought would be its WW gross

2. The Lion King - 1400 (-15.5%)/600 (+10.4%)/800 (-28.1%) - I was somewhat close on the domestic front, but the OS over performance was hard to see coming

3. Frozen 2 - 1300 (-10.3%)/450 (-10%)/850 (-10.5%) (Assuming 1450/500/950) - We were this close to greatness. Under predicted, but at least I got the ratios right

4. Star Wars: Episode IX - 1250 (+17.9%)/600 (+17.6%)/650 (+18.2%) (Assuming 1060/510/550) - Over predicted, but at least I got the ratios right. 

5. Spider-Man: Far From Home - 1025 (-9.4%)/375 (-4.0%)/650 (-12.3%) - One if my better predictions. OS over performed

6. Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw - 1000 (+31.8%)/200 (+15.1%)/800 (+36.7%) - Over predicted by a lot 

7. Toy Story 4 - 975 (-9.2%)/350 (-19.4%)/625 (-2.3%) - Another halfway decent prediction.  If I had had DOM up by 75, this prediction would pretty much be spot on

8. Jumanji 3 - 925 (+18.6%)/350 (+12.9%)/575 (+22.3%) (Assuming 780/310/470) - Over predicted

9. Captain Marvel - 900 (-20.2%)/375 (-12.1%)/525 (-25.1%) - I say I'm an MCU fanboy but I under predicted all 3 MCUs this year. Maybe I should start going higher

10. The Secret Life of Pets 2 - 900 (+109.6%)/325 (+105.3%)/575 (+112.0%) - Don't even talk to me about this one dude

 

I did not predict Joker or Aladdin making it into the top 10. I'm still trash at this

[Juby]

On 1/6/2020 at 3:26 PM, darthdevidem01 said:

No one got Star Wars as low as 500's yikes

 

I got Star Wars under $480 mln.

Edited January 14, 2020 by Juby

[MattW]

1	Avengers: Endgame	$2,797,800,564
2	The Lion King	$1,656,313,097
3	Frozen II	$1,369,253,192
4	Spider-Man: Far From Home	$1,131,927,996
5	Captain Marvel	$1,129,729,839
6	Toy Story 4	$1,073,394,813
7	Joker	$1,066,549,908
8	Aladdin	$1,050,959,216
9	Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker	$989,677,724
10	Fast & Furious Hobbs & Shaw	$760,477,120
11	Jumanji: The Next Level	$671,685,553
12	How to Train Your Dragon 3	$521,799,505
13	Maleficent: Mistress of Evil	$490,350,650
14	It: Chapter Two	$470,288,232
15	The Secret Life of Pets 2	$434,461,580
16	Pokémon: Detective Pikachu	$429,685,022
17	Alita: Battle Angel	$402,971,268
18	Godzilla: King of the Monsters	$383,299,915
19	Once Upon a Time	$369,782,459
20	Shazam!	$363,664,533
21	Dumbo	$353,166,307
22	John Wick: Chapter 3	$325,785,782

 

Taking out Chinese releases there are 22 that went over 300m, with Knives Out possibly making it.

 

	1b+	600-1000	300-600
2019	9	2	11
2018	5	6	18
2017	4	11	15
2016	4	8	16
2015	5	5	14
2014	1	12	15
2013	2	8	14
2012	4	7	16

 

2019 was a very light year for mid-range block busters.