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FANTASTIC BEASTS: THE CRIMES OF GRINDELWALD | 495.3 M overseas ● 654.9 M worldwide | Trans Rights are Human Right

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1 hour ago, ZeeSoh said:

Its likely gonna drop in its two biggest Asian markets (China and SK). Rest of the asian markets were not that big for it so even if there is a marginal increase it wont matter much eitherways. Its Europe and Japan (and to an extent LA) where it will make most of its money. Its likely gonna open bigger than the first but legs are gonna be worse

I think it's set to decrease Dom, China, SK, Japan, Aus (mirrors Dom well). Europe has started better than expected but legs may be short.

First film was $494 OS-China + $86 China + $234 Dom = 814 ww

For this one $445 OS-China + $75 China + $190 Dom = 710 ww seems reasonable

 

EDIT: China is looking at $20+ short of what I used. So even with some more coming in from OS-China, close to $700 is a reasonable target.

Edited by a2k
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1 hour ago, a2k said:

I think it's set to decrease Dom, China, SK, Japan, Aus (mirrors Dom well). Europe has started better than expected but legs may be short.

First film was $494 OS-China + $86 China + $234 Dom = 814 ww

For this one $445 OS-China + $75 China + $190 OS = 710 ww seems reasonable

Don't underestimate the power of Europe,the hype is huge here and we don't care about american critics.The reactions so far are great so i expect really good WOM

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This could be headed for a very big drop in China. Sub-$50 million is very possible. 

 

38 minutes ago, POTUS said:

FB2 run rate crashing, walk ups are dwindling.  It will barely clear 80m. unlikely to bump tomorrow. 230m/$33m weekend It will probably drop 90% next weekend.

$43m for the week

$4m next week

$47m Total

 

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70 ow is still the high end of epectations atm for FB2, 7.7 * 9.1 previews compared to 8.4 * 8.75 for FB1. Even after a 70 ow it's a significant 2.86x away from 200 dom. OW a couple below 70 and dom closer to 190 is the realistic case and don't think it's a positive trend when you have planned 5 movies. The Hogwarts, Dumbledore, Grindelwald push not bumping the sequel to a leggy film to a higher ow is concerning.

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First Day: Fantastic Beasts

 

The best release of the week was Fantastic Beasts 2 - The Crimes of Grindelwald which is a big budget Hollywood film but it hold little value in India and also does not have the sort of content that is needed for India. The film managed to get 2.75 crore nett on the first day which is the lower side

 

 

The first film is this Fantastic Beast series was released in 2016 and did not do well so that is an obstacle already for the second film in the franchise as far as India is concerned. Fantastic Beasts 1 released in 2016 did business of around 15.50 crore nett in its lifetime run.&nbs

 

The opening day of that film was a in the 1.75 crore nett range so even if we look at in that point of view its not really gone up by much with just an extra 1 crore nett coming and Hollywood is a a different level than it was in 2016.

 

 

The Saturday growth will tell if the has any chances of sustaining after weekend but a film of this sort probably needed better opening day collections.

 

https://boxofficeindia.com/report-details.php?articleid=4444

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43 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

Good :) 

 

Is it? 

 

Fantastic Beasts 2 is a bit more than $20M ahead of the first film internationally after 3 days. But $12M of that is China (which was delayed a week for FB1). FB2 also made more on Wednesday and Thursday. So basically, it's $30.7M overseas minus China on Friday for FB2 vs $29.7M for the first film's international Friday. 

 

https://variety.com/2016/film/box-office/fantastic-beasts-international-box-office-in-three-days-1201922980/

 

Domestic and China are likely to be down at least $90M from the first film combined. Possibly over $100M. 

 

If the rest of the international market drops off quicker than the first film, this could dip under $700M. I think that low 700s is probably the optimistic scenario. 

Edited by kswiston
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16 minutes ago, kswiston said:

 

Is it? 

 

Fantastic Beasts 2 is a bit more than $20M ahead of the first film internationally after 3 days. But $12M of that is China (which was delayed a week for FB1). FB2 also made more on Wednesday and Thursday. So basically, it's $30.7M overseas minus China on Friday for FB2 vs $29.7M for the first film's international Friday. 

 

https://variety.com/2016/film/box-office/fantastic-beasts-international-box-office-in-three-days-1201922980/

 

Domestic and China are likely to be down at least $90M from the first film combined. Possibly over $100M. 

 

If the rest of the international market drops off quicker than the first film, this could dip under $700M. I think that low 700s is probably the optimistic scenario. 

And you already know that those drop offs will happen because....🙄

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15 minutes ago, SMmadrid90 said:

And you already know that those drop offs will happen because....🙄

 

Because the domestic Friday was down 20% from Fantastic Beasts 1 when you screen out previews. And the fact that it is a sequel with poorer WOM, and has a much busier fall slate to compete against in coming weeks makes it unlikely to have the legs of the first film (which were pretty great).

 

$63M this weekend, with similar legs to the Hunger Games sequels is $170-175M domestic. That might end up being generous, as the Mockingjay films were received better by most metrics. 

 

User reviews in China are pretty terrible, and the film will be lucky to hit $60M there off of what is looking like a $36-37M opening. Exhibitioners are going to prioritize Venom for holdover business as a bunch of new films hit there next week. The first Fantastic Beasts opened to ~$41M in China and ended up with around $85M. 

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1 hour ago, kswiston said:

 

Is it? 

 

Fantastic Beasts 2 is a bit more than $20M ahead of the first film internationally after 3 days. But $12M of that is China (which was delayed a week for FB1). FB2 also made more on Wednesday and Thursday. So basically, it's $30.7M overseas minus China on Friday for FB2 vs $29.7M for the first film's international Friday. 

 

https://variety.com/2016/film/box-office/fantastic-beasts-international-box-office-in-three-days-1201922980/

 

Domestic and China are likely to be down at least $90M from the first film combined. Possibly over $100M. 

 

If the rest of the international market drops off quicker than the first film, this could dip under $700M. I think that low 700s is probably the optimistic scenario. 

 

That would be sad, and damn China doesn't seem to be the growth engine it was before for Hollywood, I hope it's temporary...In the meantime it's time to bet on Mexico, Indonesia, Brazil, other emerging markets.

Edited by Fullbuster
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