FANTASTIC BEASTS: THE CRIMES OF GRINDELWALD | 495.3 M overseas ● 654.9 M worldwide | Trans Rights are Human Right

[Barnack]

On 11/22/2018 at 1:09 PM, SMmadrid90 said:

That predictions were very delusional,not even HP hit $1 billion until the last movie and this movies are spin-offs. 

FB1 grossed $812 WW so if FB2 gross $650-680 the drop wont be too big (HP1 grossed +900 while HP2 grossed +800,a drop pretty similar) but i think for the next movie JK needs help writing the script because the plot of this one is very messy and dense

That was quite the different situation, first Harry Potter was like the second biggest movie ever behind Titanic when it released almost doubled everything that was not an other Intl monster in Lord of the Rings, it was probably closer to a 2 billion movie today than a 1 billion movie.

 

Going down from that was more like coming down from Jurassic Park, Force Awaken or Avengers and 879 from 975 is an excellent 90% retention rate, 650 from 812 would be 80% in comparison.

[Taruseth]

Are there any countries were it does better than FB1 (apart from Germany)?

Germany:

FB1 vs. FB2:

827k vs. 995k

523k vs. 600k

(Total after second weekend 1794k vs ~1925k)

 

In the end, I guess, FB2 will drop below FB1 even here, at least in Adm. probably finish around 3.3M (FB1: 3.48M) which would mean roughly the same gross in € and a little better in $ as Exchange rate in November/December 2016 was around 1€=1.06$ and now is around 1.12$.

[salvador-232]

14 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Are there any countries were it does better than FB1 (apart from Germany)?

Germany:

FB1 vs. FB2:

827k vs. 995k

523k vs. 600k

(Total after second weekend 1794k vs ~1925k)

 

In the end, I guess, FB2 will drop below FB1 even here, at least in Adm. probably finish around 3.3M (FB1: 3.48M) which would mean roughly the same gross in € and a little better in $ as Exchange rate in November/December 2016 was around 1€=1.06$ and now is around 1.12$.

Until right now? France, Rusia, Japan. A lot of minors had bigger OW than FB1 but who knows how it is holding (until we see Deadline spin tomorrow I suppose).

The problem is the legs going forward. 

Edited November 24, 2018 by salvador-232

[SMmadrid90]

4 hours ago, Barnack said:

That was quite the different situation, first Harry Potter was like the second biggest movie ever behind Titanic when it released almost doubled everything that was not an other Intl monster in Lord of the Rings, it was probably closer to a 2 billion movie today than a 1 billion movie.

 

Going down from that was more like coming down from Jurassic Park, Force Awaken or Avengers and 879 from 975 is an excellent 90% retention rate, 650 from 812 would be 80% in comparison.

80% rate in a spin-off movie without a hugely popular book based on isn't bad at all (yeah i know,it's the same universe but the characters and story are very different)

[MrGlass2]

2 hours ago, SMmadrid90 said:

80% rate in a spin-off movie without a hugely popular book based on isn't bad at all (yeah i know,it's the same universe but the characters and story are very different)

The success of FB1 is so underrated: an original movie sold entirely on the writer's involvement and making $800M+, it showed the power of Rowling at her peak. But making a five-movie plan for the spin-off may have been too optimistic even for her.

[Welfin]

1 hour ago, MrGlass2 said:

The success of FB1 is so underrated: an original movie sold entirely on the writer's involvement and making $800M+, it showed the power of Rowling at her peak. But making a five-movie plan for the spin-off may have been too optimistic even for her.

It sold on the strength of the brand. If Rowling writes an entirely original movie not connected to the Wizarding World does it make $800M? People wanted to return to the world of Harry Potter. But they got a much less interesting story than the adventures of Harry, Ron, and Hermione. 

 

A five movie plan could have worked, if these films were better. 

 

But that time has passed. 

[Barnack]

5 hours ago, SMmadrid90 said:

80% rate in a spin-off movie without a hugely popular book based on isn't bad at all (yeah i know,it's the same universe but the characters and story are very different)

But the drop is from a movie without a hugely popular book spin-off already, sure Fantastic Beat having a 80% retention would have been nuts (would have made over a billion)

[Gaston Zylbering]

What about the second weekend? Right now it's at 191M. Do you think it can cross 300M by tomorrow?

[Purple Minion]

 

[MaxAggressor]

 

[salvador-232]

Japan is more like +$14M. (8M for the proper weekend)

 

So it almost did in 3 days what the first one did in 5. Impressive. But I don't  think legs are going to be pretty

Edited November 25, 2018 by salvador-232

[Godzilla]

So how does $700M looks like now? 

[a2k]

23 minutes ago, Godzilla said:

So how does $700M looks like now? 

Tough, even being optimistic :-

Had a 71 OS-Japan weekend, so say 150 more OS-Japan.

13 Japan ow, so add 50 more for a total of 63, pretty much same as FB1's 63.7

Current OS is 323 (322.6)

 

Gives, 323 + 150 OS-Japan + 50 Japan = 523 OS (FB1's was 580)

 

170 Dom gives 523 + 170 = 693

 

(I think it come in 15-20 below that)

Edited November 25, 2018 by a2k

[Gaston Zylbering]

It will cross 170 dom imo. I'm comparing the daily grosses with the first Twilight movie (2008). 

OW: 69 vs 62 of FB2

By the second weekend, Twilight was at 119.7, and FB2 gained a bit, is at 117.1. 

Twilight ended with 191 (it's as 192 in BOM, but that's because of a fan event held the following year).

If FB2 holds like it's doing..well, it could end up similarly. Agree?

[PanaMovie]

I think 685M WW is more likely 

[Zakiyyah6]

I was expecting a drop but potentially under 700mil would be solidly disappointing. Welp, the only way to rebound is to make a FB3 that's undeniably a solid film.

[Ed Raven]

16 hours ago, MaxAggressor said:

 

 I added the difference with the first film for every listed Country in the same period of time. East Asia countries aren't helping. Steep declines both in China and in SK, two key markets.

 

--------- FB2    vs     FB1 (FB2 difference) 

 

China - $51.9M vs $72,5 (-20,6m) 2 weeks
U.K. - $28.3M vs $37,6 (-9,3m) 2 wk
Germany - $23.2M vs $17,9 (+5,3m) 2 wk
France - $19.8M vs $15,7 (+4,1m) 2 wk
Russia - $19.4M vs $17,2 (+2,2m) 2 wk
South Korea - $16.6M vs $24,5 (-7,9m) 2 wk
Japan - $13.0M vs $15,2 (-2,2m) 1 wk
Italy - $11.9M vs $11,4 (+0,5m) 2 wk
Australia - $11.5M vs $13,5 (-2m) 2 wk
Brazil - $11.3M vs $11,2 (+0,1m) 2 wk
Mexico - $11.2M vs $11,3 (-0,1m) 2 wk

 

From these 11 markets alone FB2 is behind FB1 by $29,9m.

 

According to the cumulative international total, however, after two weeks of release FB2 is leading by 5m (323 OS for FB2 vs 318 for FB1). 

 

Globally, though, after the second weekend FB2 lost its 34m advantage and is now 35m behind the first installment (439 WW for FB2 vs 474 WW for FB1).

Edited November 26, 2018 by Ed Raven

[Ed Raven]

The OS total has been updated to:  $343,800,000

 

What happened? Maybe Japan's long weekend numbers were added?

 

With the weekend's actuals it was at 322,2 so that's a 20+m jump. 

Edited November 30, 2018 by Ed Raven

[John Marston]

5 hours ago, Ed Raven said:

The OS total has been updated to:  $343,800,000

 

What happened? Maybe Japan's long weekend numbers were added?

 

With the weekend's actuals it was at 322,2 so that's a 20+m jump. 

 

5 hours ago, Ed Raven said:

The OS total has been updated to:  $343,800,000

 

What happened? Maybe Japan's long weekend numbers were added?

 

With the weekend's actuals it was at 322,2 so that's a 20+m jump. 

 

 

Thats up to Thursday 

[John Marston]

5 hours ago, Ed Raven said:

The OS total has been updated to:  $343,800,000

 

What happened? Maybe Japan's long weekend numbers were added?

 

With the weekend's actuals it was at 322,2 so that's a 20+m jump. 

 

5 hours ago, Ed Raven said:

The OS total has been updated to:  $343,800,000

 

What happened? Maybe Japan's long weekend numbers were added?

 

With the weekend's actuals it was at 322,2 so that's a 20+m jump. 

 

 

Thats up to Thursday