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FANTASTIC BEASTS: THE CRIMES OF GRINDELWALD | 495.3 M overseas ● 654.9 M worldwide | Trans Rights are Human Right

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38 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

$170M DOM

$440M oversea

$610M WW

This weekend, if we exclude China, the movie did almost 80% of the amount FB1 did OS-China. 

If it does 50% of the amount FB1 did OS-China after its third weekend and nothing more in China, it will do about 460M . 

I believe it can do at least 480M, and 500M is not impossible if it retains 75-80% from now on

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40.2 OS + 11.2 Dom = 51.4 WW weekend 

Is 180.4 away from 700 WW with no new markerts left.

Even if it adds 3x this weekend more WW, that's 520 + 155 = 675 WW at most.

650 WW probably is more realistic round target. 

Thinking less than that brings it to an even more shocking level : FB2 WW under VENOM OS (635-640)

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17 minutes ago, a2k said:

40.2 OS + 11.2 Dom = 51.4 WW weekend 

Is 180.4 away from 700 WW with no new markerts left.

Even if it adds 3x this weekend more WW, that's 520 + 155 = 675 WW at most.

650 WW probably is more realistic round target. 

Thinking less than that brings it to an even more shocking level : FB2 WW under VENOM OS (635-640)

 

Ya, 700M is dead. Same exact domestic and international legs as FB1 from this weekend forward is a bit under $675M, and there is no reason to assume that it will start holding on par with FB1. 

Edited by kswiston
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On 11/26/2018 at 10:02 AM, Ed Raven said:

 

China - $51.9M vs $72,5 (-20,6m) 2 weeks
U.K. - $28.3M vs $37,6 (-9,3m) 2 wk
Germany - $23.2M vs $17,9 (+5,3m) 2 wk
France - $19.8M vs $15,7 (+4,1m) 2 wk
Russia - $19.4M vs $17,2 (+2,2m) 2 wk
South Korea - $16.6M vs $24,5 (-7,9m) 2 wk
Japan - $13.0M vs $15,2 (-2,2m) 1 wk
Italy - $11.9M vs $11,4 (+0,5m) 2 wk
Australia - $11.5M vs $13,5 (-2m) 2 wk
Brazil - $11.3M vs $11,2 (+0,1m) 2 wk
Mexico - $11.2M vs $11,3 (-0,1m) 2 wk

 

From these 11 markets alone FB2 is behind FB1 by $29,9m.

 

According to the cumulative international total, however, after two weeks of release FB2 is leading by 5m (323 OS for FB2 vs 318 for FB1). 

 

Globally, though, after the second weekend FB2 lost its 34m advantage and is now 35m behind the first installment (439 WW for FB2 vs 474 WW for FB1).

 

-----          FB2    vs     FB1 (FB2 difference) 

 

China - $56.2M vs $82,4 (-26,2m) 3 weeks
U.K. - $33.8M vs $48,2 (-14.4m) 3 wks
Germany - $29.2M vs $23,6 (+5.6m) 3wks
Japan - $25.4M vs $27,6 (-2.2m) 2 wks
France - $24.4M vs $19,9 (+4.5m) 3 wks
Russia - $22.0M vs $20,3 (+1.7m) 3 wks
S. Korea - $18.0M vs $30,4 (-12.4m) 3 wks
Australia - $13.9M vs $17,3 (-3.4m) 3 wks
Italy - $13.5M vs $13,8 (-0,3m) 3 wks
Brazil - $13.4M vs $14,5 (-1.1m) 3 wks
Mexico - $12.5M vs $13 (-0.5m) 3 wks
Spain - $9.4M vs $10,2 (-0.8m) 3 wks

 

From these 12 markets alone FB2 is behind FB1 by $49,5m. Dammit China and South Korea! :P

 

Internationally, after three weeks of release FB2 is behind by 37m (387 OS for FB2 vs 424 for FB1). 

 

Globally, FB2 is now 86m behind the first installment (521 WW for FB2 vs 607 WW for FB1).

 

At this point FB2 won't even reach $650m WW. Honestly, very bad considering what the first one was able to do.

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1 hour ago, MaxAggressor said:

 

So...the final gross will be $650M more or less? Oh well..i hope the third movie will be able to fix the problems of this one but i don't see some US critics "forgiving" JK and Johnny Depp also a part of the audience really hate both of them now

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17 minutes ago, a2k said:

Even topping 640 seems tough...is 71.5 away after a ~29 weekend (22 os + 6.8 dom)

Yeah was just gonna say 650m seems out of reach. 

 

It had a 45% drop OS this weekend. For the whole OS week it dropped about 40% from approximately 63m last week to about 38m this week. If it continues to have 40% drops then it will make another 55ish million more OS. But this was with not much competition. With heavy competition coming I doubt if it can continue posting 40% drops. 

 

Domestically I think it might make 15-20m more. So I suppose it has some chance of getting to 640 but will require good holds. 

Edited by ZeeSoh
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Gotta love the overreactions by some. This will still turn in a profit for WB, not to mention the countless merchandising out there, hell, the screenplay is in the best sellers list and has been for several weeks now on Amazon UK, FR, US, along with the screenplay for FBAWTFT, it all trickles down to HP as well. 

 

That's the beauty of this. Also, it's funny how you don't see the pundits say that COS decreased from PS (might have been a different time but it still applies), domestically and worldwide, and POA did from COS. And TLJ from TFA, JW: FK from JW and also countless others (hell, The Lost World from JP). This happens. FBAWTFT may have had fantastic legs, there's bound to be a portion of people who didn't care that much for it who simply did not return for TCOG. 

 

Add to that a LOT more competition. FBAWTFT only really had Moana to worry about and that didn't even open as high as WIR did this year domestically. TCOG faced WIR which overperformed, Creed II which increased on Creed, The Grinch which has been having INSANE drops for weeks. Add to that Venom overperforming in China and taking a ton of screens away.

 

Then the film being more divisive and also a very different beast than FBAWTFT. China and SK didn't dig it: quite a decrease. Although some markets increased like France, Russia, Germany (will probably when all is said and done), etc. France has great WOM, so does Japan. In a way, it's encouraging because the film OPENED, it just faced more competition, and being more frontloaded and divisive, it'll end up lower with still a strong result.

 

David Yates said the third film would be a lot lighter and simpler which I believe will probably make it closer to FBAWTFT. I just hate the haters having a field day and ridiculously saying that it's done. This is a five part story, JK asked for it and you just need to have that span to be able to go from 1927 to 1945 (third film will jump a few years ahead), and to properly develop Dumbledore, Grindelwald and all the other characters. I believe that whatever hiccups (I personally love the film and don't have any issues with it) were felt by some with TCOG will all be resolved or will pay off when the other films come. Trust Jo. 

Edited by TimmyRiggins
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I remember when Justice League would be saved because it would be a lot lighter and simpler. Sorry but I don't listen to that propaganda. If WB spends 200+mil on FB3 then they are stupid because it's in for another decrease. 

Edited by Zakiyyah6
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1 hour ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

Competition will kill legs in the next weeks. Aquaman, Bumblebee and Mary Poppins will cut a ton of things.

 

WB should be glad FB 2 might be able to make more than 600 million worldwide. 

Japan alone should be good to get it close to the $600m-Mark.

Also, more than $5m are expected from Germany alone.
$10-15m from the US should also be doable. 

This should be able to get to around $625m.

 

At least it didn't pull a complete Prince Kaspian...

Edited by Poseidon
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