filmlover Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 4 hours ago, Shawn said: I don't necessarily disagree but MP has less audience crossover with SW than SW does with Avengers, Deadpool, Jurassic, and Incredibles. It's a first world problem for Disney to have, but if I were them, I'd rather put Han at Christmas where it has less competition (both internally and externally) and SW has proven to be massively successful two -- presumably three -- years in a row now. Hard to blame them. Mary Poppins Returns is gonna be massive. Plus Solo is the first Star Wars movie to have an air of "let's just get this over with" around it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cookie Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 (edited) I don't really get the sense that Marry Poppins will be massive. Like I think Cinderella numbers would be a high end. Edited November 22, 2017 by cookie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 1 minute ago, cookie said: I don't really get the sense that Marry Poppins will be massive. Like I think Cinderella numbers would be a high end. These Disney remakes/updates have been making a goldmine and Mary Poppins is arguably the most iconic movie in their live-action canon (plus can you find a better substitute for Julie Andrews than Emily Blunt?). And being a musical is hardly a setback for a movie anymore when the ingredients are there (La La Land was one of the biggest movies of last year, Beauty and the Beast '17 is one of the biggest of all time). It's definitely gonna be the hot ticket for families throughout Christmas/New Year's. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cookie Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 (edited) 16 minutes ago, filmlover said: These Disney remakes/updates have been making a goldmine and Mary Poppins is arguably the most iconic movie in their live-action canon (plus can you find a better substitute for Julie Andrews than Emily Blunt?). And being a musical is hardly a setback for a movie anymore when the ingredients are there (La La Land was one of the biggest movies of last year, Beauty and the Beast '17 is one of the biggest of all time). It's definitely gonna be the hot ticket for families throughout Christmas/New Year's. I feel like BatB and soon Lion King and Aladdin tap directly into people's nostalgia whereas MPR may necessarily not to the same degree. I think it's going to be super leggy but I'm not expecting some huge initial rush for it. Edited November 22, 2017 by cookie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meriodejaneiro Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 (edited) 4 hours ago, filmlover said: Hard to blame them. Mary Poppins Returns is gonna be massive. Plus Solo is the first Star Wars movie to have an air of "let's just get this over with" around it. But even with that "air" around the Solo movie, in the christmas slot it could make RO numbers easily. Actual 2018 summer for Disney is: Black Panther Buena Vista 2/16/18 A Wrinkle in Time Buena Vista 3/9/18 Avengers: Infinity War Buena Vista 5/4/18 Solo: A Star Wars Story (3D) Buena Vista 5/25/18 The Incredibles 2 Buena Vista 6/15/18 Ant-Man and the Wasp Buena Vista 7/6/18 Untitled Christopher Robin Project Buena Vista 8/3/18 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms Buena Vista 11/2/18 Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 Buena Vista 11/21/18 Mary Poppins Returns Buena Vista 12/25/18 If I were Disney, i would keep the "SW Christmas", and would move up all the summer movies one slot, like this: - Avengers 4 (beginning of may) - The Incredibles 2 (end of may - Memorial Day weekend) - Ant-Man and the Wasp (mid june) - Christopher Robin-Winnie The Poo live action movie (july) - Wreck-It Ralph 2 (august) - The Nutcracker (beginning november) - Mary Poppins Returns (end november - Thanksgiving holiday) - Solo (december - Christmas) I think the MPR could make a record opening for Thanksgiving we (100M+) and benefit from a long run with very good legs along Christmas, since Solo won't share much audience with MPR. Also, depending on what time of the year the MPR movie is settled, i mean, the original MP was an autumn-winter set movie. If MPR is set also in a cold time of the year, it could help (rather than Moana last year being a beach-summer set movie released in winter on north américa, europe, china ...). I don't see MPR breaking the christmas boxoffice as a SW movie would (independently of it being a Solo or en "Episode..."). Edited November 22, 2017 by meriodejaneiro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 1 minute ago, meriodejaneiro said: But even with that "air" around the Solo movie, in the christmas slot it could make RO numbers easily. Actual 2018 summer for Disney is: Black Panther Buena Vista 2/16/18 A Wrinkle in Time Buena Vista 3/9/18 Avengers: Infinity War Buena Vista 5/4/18 Solo: A Star Wars Story (3D) Buena Vista 5/25/18 The Incredibles 2 Buena Vista 6/15/18 Ant-Man and the Wasp Buena Vista 7/6/18 Untitled Christopher Robin Project Buena Vista 8/3/18 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms Buena Vista 11/2/18 Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 Buena Vista 11/21/18 Mary Poppins Returns Buena Vista 12/25/18 If I were Disney, i would keep the "SW Christmas", and would move up all the summer movies one slot, like this: - Avengers 4 (beginning of may) - The Incredibles 2 (end of may - Memorial Day weekend) - Ant-Man and the Wasp (mid june) - Christopher Robin-Winnie The Poo live action movie (july) - Wreck-It Ralph 2 (august) - The Nutcracker (beginning november) - Mary Poppins Returns (end november - Thanksgiving holiday) - Solo (december - Christmas) I think the MPR could make a record opening for Thanksgiving we (100M+) and benefit from a long run with very good legs along Christmas, since Solo won't share much audience with MPR. Also, depending on what time of the year the MPR movie is settled, i mean, the original MP was an autumn-winter set movie. If MPR is set also in a cold time of the year, it could help (rather than Moana last year being a beach-summer set movie released in winter on north américa, europe, china ...) Mary Poppins Returns is set in the winter, I think. Christmas has also been where musicals have flourished the last several years (Les Miserables, Into the Woods, La La Land, Fox is hoping the same for The Greatest Showman) so there's really a zero percent chance Disney will move it from where it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawk the Hutt Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Mary Poppins is going to be enormous. Not SW level huge, but I am expecting mid-300s at least. Perfect blockbuster to release at Christmastime as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 People are overestimating Poppins. I have it doing 30/164 right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 12 hours ago, That One Guy said: Let's try this: 187. Justice League 188. Last Jedi 189. Black Panther 190. A Wrinkle in Time 191. Ready Player One 192. Avengers: Infinity War 193. Solo: A Star Wars Story 194. Deadpool 2 195. The Incredibles 2 196. Jurassic World 2 197. Ant-Man and the Wasp 198. How the Grinch Stole Christmas 199. Mortal Engines 200. Aquaman update with Alita removed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meriodejaneiro Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 I see nobody is considering Coco as a 200M movie ... a bit surprised tbh. I see it closer to 300M than to 200M honestly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said: I see nobody is considering Coco as a 200M movie ... a bit surprised tbh. I see it closer to 300M than to 200M honestly. it's already considered, see the OP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meriodejaneiro Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 1 hour ago, filmlover said: Mary Poppins Returns is set in the winter, I think. Christmas has also been where musicals have flourished the last several years (Les Miserables, Into the Woods, La La Land, Fox is hoping the same for The Greatest Showman) so there's really a zero percent chance Disney will move it from where it is. That's what i mean. Releasing it in Thanksgiving would have gotten the 5 day holiday + long legs along Christmas. We are seeing now how good christmas movies are behaving in boxoffice being released mid-november. I think MPR releasing in Thanksgiving could have made Frozen's numbers + they could get more incomes from Solo being released in Christmas (more money than it might make in that crowded summer) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 I think Marry Poppins could do 200m. Huge name recognition, Disney marketing, Christmas.. If Les Mis which imo was over-rated did ~150, 200m+ for Poppins is certainly on cards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChipDerby Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 AQUAMAN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meriodejaneiro Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, a2knet said: it's already considered, see the OP. True. My bad. I have read a couple of lists not including Coco, but happen to be from the same ThatOneGuy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 190. Black Panther 191. A Wrinkle in Time 192. Avengers: Infinity War 193. Deadpool 2 194. Solo: A Star Wars Story 195. Incredibles 2 196. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom 197. Ant-Man and the Wasp 198. Mission: Impossible - Fallout 199. The Grinch 200. Mortal Engines Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Why is Wrinkle in Time considered to be that huge? I don't see it. 190. Black Panther 191. Ready Player One (why not? Nostalgia is in right now) 192. Rampage (the year of the Rock) 193. Infinity War Part 1 194. Deadpool 2 195. Solo 196. Ocean's 8 (let's get nuts and just predict something unexpected to break out) 197. Incredible's 2 198. Jurassic World 2 199. Ant-man 2 200. Skyscraper (The Rock rules) 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 (edited) Is this in order of release date or which one gets there first? My guess: 191. Black Panther 192. A Wrinkle in Time 193. Infinity War 194. Deadpool 195. Solo 196. Incredibles 2 197. Jurassic World 2 198. Ant Man and the Wasp 199. Mission: Impossible - Fallout 200. The Grinch or Fantastic Beasts 2 (Grinch by release date, maybe FB2 by which gets there first) Give a slight chance for The Greatest Showman and/or Venom to throw a wrench in there. Edited February 7, 2018 by MovieMan89 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avatree Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 0. SAMSON 191. Black Panther 192. Avengers 193. Deadpool 2 194. Solo 195. Jurassic World 196. Ant-Man 197. Aquaman 198. Mary Poppins 199. The LEGO Movie 2 200. Captain Marvel Wreck it Ralph 2 and The Grinch open very close to each other, if they were on their own then either one would get past 200M, but I have a feeling they'll damage each other and neither will get to 200M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XO21 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 I would be very surprised if Ready Player One and A Wrinkle in Time reached $200m... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
