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Ezen Baklattan

What will be the 200th 200m grosser?

By Ezen Baklattan, in Box Office Discussion

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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

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11 hours ago, Tree Billboards said:

0. SAMSON

191. Black Panther

192. Avengers

193. Deadpool 2

194. Solo

195. Jurassic World

196. Ant-Man

197. Aquaman

198. Mary Poppins

199. The LEGO Movie 2

200. Captain Marvel

 

Wreck it Ralph 2 and The Grinch open very close to each other, if they were on their own then either one would get past 200M, but I have a feeling they'll damage each other and neither will get to 200M.

You realize you left off Incredibles 2 right? Surely you can't actually be predicting sub 200?

 

MI6 should hit 200 unless it's underwhelming

 

And the odds of Grinch, Ralph, and Fantastic Beasts all missing 200 are probably next to zero. At least one will make it, likely all 3. 2016 also proved the holiday season can handle multiple big animated grossers, we had one hit 150+, one hit 250+, and one hit 270+. That will probably be similar to how Ralph, Grinch, and Spider-Verse do. I don't see any possible way the 200th is delayed until 2019. 

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Avatree Global Phenomenon

Avatree

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15 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

You realize you left off Incredibles 2 right? Surely you can't actually be predicting sub 200?

 

MI6 should at least hit 200 unless it's underwhelming

 

And the odds of Grinch, Ralph, and Fantastic Beasts all missing 200 are probably next to zero. At least one will make it. 2016 also proved the holiday season can handle multiple big animated grossers, we had one hit 150+, one hit 250+, and one hit 270+. That will probably be similar to how Ralph, Grinch, and Spider-Verse do. I don't see any possible way the 200th is delayed until 2019. 

Oh lol. I just went through the list of releases on BOM, didn't notice incredibles 2. ofc that's doing 200M. Okay so the 200th will be The Lego Movie 2, I'm cool with that.

 

I don't see why MI6 "should" reach 200, yes it may do, or it may not. MI5 decreased on MI4 despite both being as well received as each other. I would assume MI6 will be equally well received and therefore be equally popular - however, MI6 has a lot more competition than MI5.

 

Rogue Nation opened against Vacation which bombed, and was followed next weekend by F4nt4stic which also bombed. Week 3 its most direct competition, Man from UNCLE, bombed too. August was completely dead apart from Compton.

 

In contrast, Fallout will have its 2nd weekend against Equalizer 2 and Predator, and the week after sees the release of Meg. Maybe these will all bomb too but at least they have odds. MI6 has more competition than MI5 and it will suffer as a result. Not hugely, but enough that it doesn't quite reach 200M.

 

As for the animated ones - it's a similar story really, they aren't films that would be huge blockbuster hits anyway. They might probably do 200M on their own but they're not Sing levels (270M like you said). Wreck it ralph is the worst performing of the CG Disney films and I see no reason for the sequel to do better than the first one 6 years after the fact. The Grinch is more likely to hit 200M but it is hardly a given, since Horton did 155M and Lorax did 214M. 

 

Fantastic Beasts, I think will drop from the first one significantly, since the curiosity factor of the series is gone.

 

 

I don't see why the animated spiderman film will be a hit, there is no precedent for it, quite the opposite - The Killing Joke made a whopping $3,775,000 in 2016, there is just no demand for superhero movies if they're not live action.

 

 

 

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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

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2 minutes ago, Tree Billboards said:

Oh lol. I just went through the list of releases on BOM, didn't notice incredibles 2. ofc that's doing 200M. Okay so the 200th will be The Lego Movie 2, I'm cool with that.

 

I don't see why MI6 "should" reach 200, yes it may do, or it may not. MI5 decreased on MI4 despite both being as well received as each other. I would assume MI6 will be equally well received and therefore be equally popular - however, MI6 has a lot more competition than MI5.

 

Rogue Nation opened against Vacation which bombed, and was followed next weekend by F4nt4stic which also bombed. Week 3 its most direct competition, Man from UNCLE, bombed too. August was completely dead apart from Compton.

 

In contrast, Fallout will have its 2nd weekend against Equalizer 2 and Predator, and the week after sees the release of Meg. Maybe these will all bomb too but at least they have odds. MI6 has more competition than MI5 and it will suffer as a result. Not hugely, but enough that it doesn't quite reach 200M.

 

As for the animated ones - it's a similar story really, they aren't films that would be huge blockbuster hits anyway. They might probably do 200M on their own but they're not Sing levels (270M like you said). Wreck it ralph is the worst performing of the CG Disney films and I see no reason for the sequel to do better than the first one 6 years after the fact. The Grinch is more likely to hit 200M but it is hardly a given, since Horton did 155M and Lorax did 214M. 

 

Fantastic Beasts, I think will drop from the first one significantly, since the curiosity factor of the series is gone.

 

 

I don't see why the animated spiderman film will be a hit, there is no precedent for it, quite the opposite - The Killing Joke made a whopping $3,775,000 in 2016, there is just no demand for superhero movies if they're not live action.

 

 

 

The Fallout trailer and reception seems too good for me to believe MI6 will miss 200. RN's marketing was never on the same level. Sure it could end up being a lackluster movie and not have good WOM, but that seems far more unlikely than likely at this point. 

 

Beasts will need to take a pretty nasty 20%+ admissions drop to miss 200. The first posted a very underwhelming OW and instead relied on good legs to achieve a modest total for the franchise. Indicating that there wasn't much curiosity at all and it was a WOM hit. There should be room for growth, or at the worst a soft drop off. 

 

The Grinch is locked for 200, I see no way around that. There's zero precedent for an Illumination animated film to go under 200m, and in fact if you adjust for inflation there's not even a precedent for one of them to go under 250m. Every Illumination release is a potential 250+ grosser until proven otherwise. That's before even factoring in that The Grinch is an enduring holiday classic with a beloved book, beloved animated special, and the 2000 live action film (which adjusts to over 440m). 

 

WDAS also has a box office precedent this decade, Ralph may be at the bottom but it still clears 200 with ease adjusted. And it was pre Frozen, everything post Frozen by them has done 220+ unadjusted. As long as the movie is well received, a gross between 190-220 is likely. So maybe it will barely miss 200, but it has just as good of a shot at going over. 

 

I never made a case for Spider-Verse crossing 200, doubt it would. 

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Avatree Global Phenomenon

Avatree

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14 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The Fallout trailer and reception seems too good for me to believe MI6 will miss 200. RN's marketing was never on the same level. Sure it could end up being a lackluster movie and not have good WOM, but that seems far more unlikely than likely at this point. 

 

Beasts will need to take a pretty nasty 20%+ admissions drop to miss 200. The first posted a very underwhelming OW and instead relied on good legs to achieve a modest total for the franchise. Indicating that there wasn't much curiosity at all and it was a WOM hit. There should be room for growth, or at the worst a soft drop off. 

 

The Grinch is locked for 200, I see no way around that. There's zero precedent for an Illumination animated film to go under 200m, and in fact if you adjust for inflation there's not even a precedent for one of them to go under 250m. Every Illumination release is a potential 250+ grosser until proven otherwise. That's before even factoring in that The Grinch is an enduring holiday classic with a beloved book, beloved animated special, and the 2000 live action film (which adjusts to over 440m). 

 

WDAS also has a box office precedent this decade, Ralph may be at the bottom but it still clears 200 with ease adjusted. And it was pre Frozen, everything post Frozen by them has done 220+ unadjusted. As long as the movie is well received, a gross between 190-220 is likely. So maybe it will barely miss 200, but it has just as good of a shot at going over. 

 

I never made a case for Spider-Verse crossing 200, doubt it would. 

Yeah like I said I expect Fallout will be a well received film. But that hasn't managed to elevate Rogue Nation or Ghost Protocol much past 200M. 

 

20% drop is not unusual for a sequel. I don't see how it will grow imo. the harry potter audience has been maxed out, it won't increase.

 

When you say "no Illumination film has gone under 200M" I assume you forgot that they made Hop?

I am just playing it safe in thinking both Grinch and Ralph will just miss 200, but Grinch certainly has a much higher potential. 

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Asyulus Blockbuster

Asyulus

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194.) Incredibles 2

195.) Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

196.) Ant-Man and the Wasp

197.) Mission: Impossible - Fallout

198.) Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

199.) Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck it Ralph

200.) CAPTAIN MARVEL

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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

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On 6/15/2018 at 12:47 PM, CoolEric258 said:

194. Incredibles 2

195. Solo

196. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

197. Ant-Man and the Wasp

198. Mission: Impossible - Fallout

199. Christopher Robin

200. :Venom:

Agreed up to 199, though still not sure if Venom can do it. Beasts #200 if not. Don't think Halloween will resonate enough with the younger demo for 200. 

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Asyulus Blockbuster

Asyulus

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Updated.

 

196.) Mission: Impossible - Fallout

197.) :Venom:

198.) Nutcracker and the Four Realms

199.) Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

200.) Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck it Ralph 2

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Eric Duncan Global Phenomenon

Eric Duncan

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Venom's now a lock, so now there's only one more movie left. Unless Halloween explodes on its OW (with presales being strong, that seems like a possibility), it's basically a race between Grinch, Fantastic Beasts, and Ralph 2. Pretty interesting conclusion in all honesty.

 

PS: Han, if you so much as dare mention Bohemian Rhapsody, I'm flying to Florida and slapping you silly.

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