5-Day Weekend Thread | Saturday #s (Asgard p.109) - Coco 17.7, Justice League 15.7, Wonder 8.3, Thor: Ragnarok 6.4, Daddy's Home 2 5.3

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Apart from Disc Tuesdays => Crap Wed thing, wonder if JL being targeted at a more family friendly audience got affected by Coco's OD more than expected (though in that case FB did well against Moana's OD increasing by 17% on Wed last year).

There’s also the fact Wonder keeps slaying too.

[a2k]

Just now, YourMother said:

There’s also the fact Wonder keeps slaying too.

Well Wonder was slaying Mon, Tue too...the Wed for JL is really an outlier.

[somebody85]

10 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Apart from Disc Tuesdays => Crap Wed thing, wonder if JL being targeted at a more family friendly audience got affected by Coco's OD more than expected (though in that case FB did well against Moana's OD increasing by 17% on Wed last year).

Fantastic Beats had better reviews and word of mouth though. And I think it did and will continue to be for awhile along with Wonder. 
 

Another factor for JL next week will be The Disaster Artist (actually yeah, that might not go wide until the 8th). The trailers have gotten a lot of hype and The Room is basically a meme.

I'm excited for The Shape Of Water but don't think it's going to be a big GA thing.

Edited November 23, 2017 by somebody85

[SteveJaros]

9 hours ago, That One Guy said:

 

Unless Father Figures becomes a 900M dollar megahit, you won't be for long.

For long? This race started January 1st, and it's November 23rd and I'm in the lead. That's pretty deep into the race eh and I've been winning for a long while.

 

Sounds like you're pinning your hopes on a last-second, skin of your teeth win at the buzzer. That's fine, but don't act like you've DOMinated the yearly DOM, because you've been playing from behind the whole time. 

[Brainbug]

11 minutes ago, somebody85 said:

Fantastic Beats had better reviews and word of mouth though. And I think it did and will continue to be for awhile along with Wonder. 
 

Another factor for JL next week will be The Disaster Artist (actually yeah, that might not go wide until the 8th). The trailers have gotten a lot of hype and The Room is basically a meme.

I'm excited for The Shape Of Water but don't think it's going to be a big GA thing.

 

[Brainbug]

Just now, SteveJaros said:

For long? This race started January 1st, and it's November 23rd and I'm in the lead. That's pretty deep into the race eh and I've been winning for a long while.

 

Sounds like you're pinning your hopes on a last-second, skin of your teeth win at the buzzer. That's fine, but don't act like you've DOMinated the yearly DOM, because you've been playing from behind the whole time. 

 

WB isnt even 200M above Disney in the race and this little independent movie called The Last Jedi will probably make 500M in the year 2017 alone. Just admit defeat.

[a2k]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

WB isnt even 200M above Disney in the race and this little independent movie called The Last Jedi will probably make 500M in the year 2017 alone. Just admit defeat.

jl = coco + thor3 was his mantra. he hasn't even talked about that yet.

[YM!]

12 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

For long? This race started January 1st, and it's November 23rd and I'm in the lead. That's pretty deep into the race eh and I've been winning for a long while.

 

Sounds like you're pinning your hopes on a last-second, skin of your teeth win at the buzzer. That's fine, but don't act like you've DOMinated the yearly DOM, because you've been playing from behind the whole time. 

Here’s the thing though. Disney is at $1.614B and WB is at $1.78B with Coco and JL likely doing about the same, Disney and WB should be within $400M of each other before Jedi, and even if it can’t, Jedi will make up the difference so unless Jedi flops, Disney wins.

Edited November 23, 2017 by YourMother

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

For long? This race started January 1st, and it's November 23rd and I'm in the lead. That's pretty deep into the race eh and I've been winning for a long while.

How's that "Justice League > Coco + Thor" club working out for ya?

[SteveJaros]

10 hours ago, Boner Omega said:

 

Out of curiosity, where do you think both movies will end up domestically?

Really, I don't know. I'm not good at predicting grosses over the holidays, these 5-day weekends and kids out of school and all that mess with my predictive powers for individual films. I see an OW of $50m and think "wow, this film is going to be lucky to gross $120m, and then next thing you know it's making $7m a day on weekdays, because of the holidays, and its nearly at $100m before the next weekend even arrives and i'm bamboozled. The grosses just seem to be higher all around. 

 

And it's not just me, some dummies around here saw JL's open at $93m and started laughing about it not making $200m DOM. Heck, it's going to be not far from that by Monday. It's more likely to make $300m DOM than miss $200m DOM.

 

Best guess: CoCo finishes at about $170m DOM. And that's tainted by my having seen it. Liked it, but didn't love it. Not nearly among Pixar's best despite the tomato meter. No shame in that as Pixar has about seven outright classics.

 

 

Edited November 23, 2017 by SteveJaros

[MCKillswitch123]

YASS at Coco's increase. Great stuff, close to Moana's multiplier. With even better wom, and much weaker competition (Ferdinand + Jumanji combined under Sing), its legs could actually surpass Moana's despite the smaller opening and DOM total.

 

If everything else remains as DHD says, that's another disappointment for JL. Not huge Wed increases all over the board, but that's probably because of the discount Tuesday.

 

Oh, and @SteveJaros, 170M for a 70M+ 5-day Thanksgiving opener is a prediction that reeks desperation. Your club is D-E-A-D, my friend. Whatever lead WB had was slowed by Ninjago + 2049, and then destroyed by disappointment of JL. The Last Jedi might do more in 3 days than JL in 3 weeks.

Edited November 23, 2017 by MCKillswitch123

[SteveJaros]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

How's that "Justice League > Coco + Thor" club working out for ya?

As long as WB > DIS, pretty good. It's an Interconnected Universe of predictions leading to that result. The nuts and bolts don't matter as long as the machine runs, and right now, it's running.

[a2k]

4 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

Really, I don't know. I'm not good at predicting grosses over the holidays, these 5-day weekends and kids out of school and all that mess with my predictive powers for individual films. I see an OW of $50m and think "wow, this film is going to be lucky to gross $120m, and then next thing you know it's making $7m a day on weekdays, because of the holidays, and its nearly at $100m before the next weekend even arrives and i'm bamboozled. The grosses just seem to be higher all around. 

 

And it's not just me, some dummies around here saw JL's open at $93m and started laughing about it not making $200m DOM. Heck, it's going to be not far from that by Monday. It's more likely to make $300m DOM than miss $200m DOM.

 

Best guess: CoCo finishes at about $170m DOM. And that's tainted by my having seen it. Liked it, but didn't love it. Not nearly among Pixar's best despite the tomato meter. No shame in that as Pixar has about seven outright classics.

 

 

so 65-70 5 day and 100-105 rest of the run? 

[filmlover]

A total similar to Moana shouldn't be difficult for Coco, even with plenty of competition in its fourth and fifth weekend (5 movies opening in wide release - I'm not convinced All the Money in the World will be making it in less than a month). Wonder will be the only other pre-Last Jedi release (that isn't an expanding Oscar contender, of course) that will hold on into the new year as well.

[titanic2187]

Wed's change for pre-thanksgiving openers:
2011: TW:BD1, +13%

2012: TW:BD2, +8.6%

2013: HG:CF, +30.4%

2014: MJ1, +20.5%

2015: MJ2, +20.3%

2016: FB, +17.6%

2017: JL, 0%

[filmlover]

@titanic2187 spoiler tag that gif please. Some of us are eating breakfast.

[SteveJaros]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

so 65-70 5 day and 100-105 rest of the run? 

Your total rep and # of posts are identical. That's pretty remarkable given how many hours of your life you've apparently spent posting here. Amazing, really. 

[AJG]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

@titanic2187 spoiler tag that gif please. Some of us are eating breakfast.

[Brainiac5]

1 hour ago, a2knet said:

imo, reasonably optimistically for JUSTICE LEAGUE:

 

Wed 10.5 (122.4 cume)

Thu 9.0 (-14%)

Fri 18.0 (+100%)

Sat 17.1 (-5%)

Sun 9.0 (-47.5%)

- 44.1 2nd weekend (-53.0%)

- 175.5 10-Day cume [93.8 ow + 81.7 Mon-Sun]

- If it adds the Mon-Sun amount to it's cume then the DOM is looking at 257 [2.74x]

 

Edit: If it falls short of this amount and COCO over-performs, then COCO over JL is a possibility, unthinkable a week before release, much like ZOOTP over BVS.

250 dom should be locked for JL after this weekend.

Keeping the same dom/ O.S Ratio gives it  750ww.

257 gives it 771ww.

Edited November 23, 2017 by Brainiac5

[Brainiac5]

5 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Wed's change for pre-thanksgiving openers:
2011: TW:BD1, +13%

2012: TW:BD2, +8.6%

2013: HG:CF, +30.4%

2014: MJ1, +20.5%

2015: MJ2, +20.3%

2016: FB, +17.6%

2017: JL, 0%

Now post the Tuesday increases for all films.