5-Day Weekend Thread | Saturday #s (Asgard p.109) - Coco 17.7, Justice League 15.7, Wonder 8.3, Thor: Ragnarok 6.4, Daddy's Home 2 5.3

[Ethan Hunt]

7 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Anymore I'm starting to feel like IW is the most overpredicted movie on the whole forum. 

 

why yes I do feel that way

Edited November 26, 2017 by Ethan Hunt

[YM!]

Just now, raulbalarezo said:

Less than GotG 2... sure...

It’s possible. There’s a 5% chance imo that it’s a DHP2 situation.

[The Panda]

3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

One thing that worried me since I saw it is that I don't know if I think it's going to go over great with younger kids (9 and under). Not sure how much they will get out of it, I feel like the themes and overall ability to enjoy it are on a more mature level than your average animated film or even your average Pixar film. Then again, Ratatouille is one of Pixar's most mature and had a crazy multi. Also, the Mexican culture aspect just might not carry as much widespread appeal unfortunately. 

I think that'll probably help it.  It's not the young kids buying the tickets, it's their parents.  Being an appealing movie to the family, while also being enjoyable by the parents, is essential for an animated movie's WoM (the other being not having any competition, which Coco does not).  I think it should be fine.

 

Parents will be more likely to recommend a movie to other families if they can get enjoyment out of the movie too.

[YM!]

I do think IW will cross $400M with ease (CW although marketed as Avengers 2.5, some didn’t think so and Guardians should be a huge draw, likely good reception, barren May) but no CBM will ever make $500M domestic again without crazy inflation. Besides although May is barren, IW can easily be as frontloaded as its predecessors.

[Ethan Hunt]

400M just seems like a stretch to me 

[BluRayHiDef]

14 minutes ago, Joel M said:

That 57% drop for JL is just bad any way you look at it. 

 

BD1 - 69,8%

BD2 - 69,1%

CF - 53,1%

MJ1 - 53,3%

MJ2 - 49,3%

FB - 39,4%

 

The only pre-thanksgiving blockbusters that JL had a better drop against where the final twilights which were as frontloaded and fan-driven as big blockbusters get and also did 45m more than JL on OW. MJ2 was not exactly a movie with great WOM and still dropped way better while opening 8m higher. That's just bad.

Oh, piss off with this repetitive drivel. There's no sense in beating a dead horse. This film has been performing badly since its Thursday night previews, and the franchise of which it is a part has been performing badly since its first entry (barring WW). So, you and others like you need to stop pointing out the obvious and the expected. 

 

 

[narniadis]

I don't get the gloom about Cocos Saturday. It had a very normal fall expecting anything better was asking for a miracle. I swear it is like some do not actually follow the statistics of box office.  

[The Panda]

3 minutes ago, raulbalarezo said:

Less than GotG 2... sure...

Civil War did less than Iron Man 3, JL did less than every DCEU movie, and AoU dropped from TA by a large margin (and it was the second most accessible of the major crossover films, with TA being the most).

 

Maybe it could do a little better, but Guardians 2 had the benefit of being able to appeal to non-Marvel fans.  Anywhere in the 375m - 405m range wouldn't surprise me, 380m is just my predict for now.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, The Panda said:

Civil War did less than Iron Man 3, JL did less than every DCEU movie, and AoU dropped from TA by a large margin (and it was the second most accessible of the major crossover films, with TA being the most).

 

Maybe it could do a little better, but Guardians 2 had the benefit of being able to appeal to non-Marvel fans.  Anywhere in the 375m - 405m range wouldn't surprise me, 380m is just my predict for now.

To be fair JL suffered from the combo of mixed reviews and bad reception of the past DCEU movies and AOU was bound to drop, it’s a sequel after all.

[The Panda]

3 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I do think IW will cross $400M with ease (CW although marketed as Avengers 2.5, some didn’t think so and Guardians should be a huge draw, likely good reception, barren May) but no CBM will ever make $500M domestic again without crazy inflation. Besides although May is barren, IW can easily be as frontloaded as its predecessors.

I also don't think May is that barren.  There's a Melissa McCarthy comedy, if it's decent then it'll pull good numbers, the week after.  I'd wait until marketing comes in, but Slenderman could do good numbers.  Then of course Solo will be large.

 

A barren May also doesn't guarantee people will go see Infinity War because there's nothing to see.  As we've seen this year, people will probably just not see anything at all until something appealing comes out.

[WrathOfHan]

The people whining about people saying JL's numbers are bad need to shut the fuck up. This is a box office forum. We discuss the receipts. 

[The Panda]

Just now, YourMother said:

To be fair JL suffered from the combo of mixed reviews and bad reception of the past DCEU movies and AOU was bound to drop, it’s a sequel after all.

That's why I'm not giving it a ridiculous drop off like JL.  I was just using it as an example that being a cross-over movie doesn't guarantee anything.

 

Infinity War is also a sequel, it's also a Part 1 film (cliffhangers don't seem to bode well for legs), and it's a massive crossover, which will make it the least GA accessible MCU movie yet.

[YM!]

Just now, The Panda said:

I also don't think May is that barren.  There's a Melissa McCarthy comedy, if it's decent then it'll pull good numbers, the week after.  I'd wait until marketing comes in, but Slenderman could do good numbers.  Then of course Solo will be large.

 

A barren May also doesn't guarantee people will go see Infinity War because there's nothing to see.  As we've seen this year, people will probably just not see anything at all until something appealing comes out.

This also very true. I can see IW anywhere from $375M-$450M. However, I’m banking on the fact that GV2 almost getting to $400M and the past Avengers team ups getting there will help. But I agree on massive frontloadedness ($195M-$210M OW/$415M-$450M).

 

 

The only real problem IW has to face is the hook. JL suffered from a not so appealing hook imo. I think the fact that all the MCU characters teaming up will help but then again.

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The people whining about people saying JL's numbers are bad need to shut the fuck up. This is a box office forum. We discuss the receipts. 

Or the fact they say that critics have a alleged DC bias even though both WW and TLBM got rave reviews.

 

This is a box office forum. If SW or an Avengers movie did these type of numbers, we would laugh just as loud.

[Brainbug]

When a movie has a phenomenal run like Wonder Woman we rave nearly every day of its run about the great numbers it produces. But when a movie like JL is doing so bad that its failure is one of epic proportions, we are not allowed to say it like it is every time we get a new number from its run?

 

Doesnt make sense to me.

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

When a movie has a phenomenal run like Wonder Woman we rave nearly every day of its run about the great numbers it produces. But when a movie like JL is doing so bad that its failure is one of epic proportions, we are not allowed to say it like it is every time we get a new number from its run?

 

Doesnt make sense to me.

Yep, and I was threadbanned for bringing this point up because several fanboys reported me.

[YM!]

Outside of a few same people, the forum hasn’t gone to shit after Thor and JL which I thought would happen. Either the mods getting tougher spooked people or perhaps the fact that the fanboys decided to post at home than come here. Either way I’m both impressed and happy that the forum remains great.

[Ethan Hunt]

Lol I forgot Thor existed 

[LaughingEvans]

1 minute ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Lol I forgot Thor existed 

 

It's not an unusual response to stress Ethan

[Napoleon]

24 minutes ago, YourMother said:

To be fair JL suffered from the combo of mixed reviews and bad reception of the past DCEU movies and AOU was bound to drop, it’s a sequel after all.

Don't forget to mention JL looked like trash after the reshoots, and WB was selling it is a dumb fun movie. Infinity War will probably look great and exciting trailers promising something epic (which they won't deliver but still)