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That One Guy

5-Day Weekend Thread | Saturday #s (Asgard p.109) - Coco 17.7, Justice League 15.7, Wonder 8.3, Thor: Ragnarok 6.4, Daddy's Home 2 5.3

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Just now, Napoleon said:

Don't forget to mention JL looked like trash after the reshoots, and WB was selling it is a dumb fun movie. Infinity War will probably look great and exciting trailers promising something epic (which they won't deliver but still)

 

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To be honest, I’m not going to lie JL’s performance has me kind of leery at IW’s performance domestically.

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Just now, YourMother said:

To be honest, I’m not going to lie JL’s performance has me kind of leery at IW’s performance domestically.

Infinity War will be much better received then Justice League, I wouldn't worry. Justice League was following BVS, which was not well-received, and Wonder Woman, which almost had a a different audience altogether. Infinity War is following a string of Marvel hits, unless it's somehow a disaster of a film, it should do quite well. 400m is not impossible. 

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Just now, Fancyarcher said:

Infinity War will be much better received then Justice League, I wouldn't worry. Justice League was following BVS, which was not well-received, and Wonder Woman, which almost had a a different audience altogether. Infinity War is following a string of Marvel hits, unless it's somehow a disaster of a film, it should do quite well. 400m is not impossible. 

Agreed on that but I can see a very small chance it goes sub $400M (5%-10% chance).

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It takes 4 surprise hit, murder on the express, wonder, coco and Daddy home 2 to remedy the disappointing number of JL, not to mention others awesome run from limited release.  

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5 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

When a movie has a phenomenal run like Wonder Woman we rave nearly every day of its run about the great numbers it produces. But when a movie like JL is doing so bad that its failure is one of epic proportions, we are not allowed to say it like it is every time we get a new number from its run?

 

Doesnt make sense to me.

When it's pretty obvious based on a film's first few days of performance at the box office that it'll be a disappointment, it makes no sense to reiterate that conclision or point out new corroboration of that conclusion every time a new figure is revealed. To do so is to be sensational and intentionally negative. 

 

When we get the estimates for today, Sunday, that same user to whom I was responding and all of the other users like him will - yet again - reiterate the same obvious conclusion and - yet again - use metrics from the Sundays of past Thanksgiving weekends to point out the obvious via comparisons. Stupid and sensational.

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30 minutes ago, The Panda said:

Civil War did less than Iron Man 3, JL did less than every DCEU movie, and AoU dropped from TA by a large margin (and it was the second most accessible of the major crossover films, with TA being the most).

 

Maybe it could do a little better, but Guardians 2 had the benefit of being able to appeal to non-Marvel fans.  Anywhere in the 375m - 405m range wouldn't surprise me, 380m is just my predict for now.

I doubt that because:

 

1. There are more Avengers fans + GA audience fans than there are GOTG + GA fans.    

2. I don't see how watching IW will be more dependent on a core group of fans than CW was and in 2017 ticket prices CW would be $420m+ domestic (AOU about $480m)

3. CW was still for all the Avengers in it a Cap movie in tone and style

4. IW is more of an event movie than CW and also coming off Thor and Black Panther which might bring in new fans

 

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1 minute ago, YourMother said:

Agreed on that but I can see a very small chance it goes sub $400M (5%-10% chance).

I'd say a very small chance. It's possible to have Civil War legs, but I do think the film will do better then that. I do agree that no comic book film will reach 500m anytime soon though, since the landscape for superhero films has changed so much in the past few years. 

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10 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Outside of a few same people, the forum hasn’t gone to shit after Thor and JL which I thought would happen. Either the mods getting tougher spooked people or perhaps the fact that the fanboys decided to post at home than come here. Either way I’m both impressed and happy that the forum remains great.

 

Im really disappointed. I wanted chaos. A lot of The no-profile-pic guys fled once the first number so came in too. Very disappointing.

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3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

It takes 4 surprise hit, murder on the express, wonder, coco and Daddy home 2 to remedy the disappointing number of JL, not to mention others awesome run from limited release.  

But I thought people didn't go to the movies unless it was for the blockbusters or the comic book movies *cough lordmandeep cough*.

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6 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

It takes 4 surprise hit, murder on the express, wonder, coco and Daddy home 2 to remedy the disappointing number of JL, not to mention others awesome run from limited release.  

 

Hey, Justice League is doing great numbers for an indie art film.

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Murder on the Orient Express was quite boring at points. But I’d never seen one of these before so the reveal surprised me! 

 

Branagh was insufferable for the majority. 

 

Michelle was, of course, great.

 

Daisy Ridley was quite stagey. 

 

5/10 

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8 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

I doubt that because:

 

1. There are more Avengers fans + GA audience fans than there are GOTG + GA fans.    

2. I don't see how watching IW will be more dependent on a core group of fans than CW was and in 2017 ticket prices CW would be $420m+ domestic (AOU about $480m)

3. CW was still for all the Avengers in it a Cap movie in tone and style

4. IW is more of an event movie than CW and also coming off Thor and Black Panther which might bring in new fans

 

completely agree.  I'm not going to make a prediction for the simple reason that I don't want to get annoyed hear how silly it is and then wait half a year before being proven wrong or right.  

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18 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

I doubt that because:

 

1. There are more Avengers fans + GA audience fans than there are GOTG + GA fans.    

2. I don't see how watching IW will be more dependent on a core group of fans than CW was and in 2017 ticket prices CW would be $420m+ domestic (AOU about $480m)

3. CW was still for all the Avengers in it a Cap movie in tone and style

4. IW is more of an event movie than CW and also coming off Thor and Black Panther which might bring in new fans

 

I can totally see IW pulling a 2.2-2.3x like CW, but with a much higher debut [and total]

 

This movie will be sell like an event, they probably have killing shots to show in trailers with everyone working together to built buzz

And the movie will have psychedelic scenes, a lot of colors, space scenes etc... they could make a Ragnarok-ish marketing for this with much more appeal

 

Right now i see $ 210-215M debut and $ 450 - 480M total [$ 1.45 - 1.5B worldwide]

 

Edited by ThomasNicole
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15 minutes ago, YourMother said:

To be honest, I’m not going to lie JL’s performance has me kind of leery at IW’s performance domestically.

IW will be the culmination of the last ten-years worth of films, which have all been received quite well (some more so than others), whereas JL is the complete opposite. Hence, there's no reason to worry about IW's performance. 

 

I personally predict that IW will earn a little more than $500M domestically. If It's at least as good as Civil War in terms of its story and action, it'll break records due to its robust roster of characters, which is what'll push it to $500M.

Edited by BluRayHiDef
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That's actually a great start for Darkest Hour, especially when it went head-to-head against the arthouse juggernaut that is Call Me by Your Name (which is also expected to be a much bigger Oscar player). It's a much bigger launch than Lion on the same weekend last year too.

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IW has a big sell which is Avengers + Guardians. Even if it drops like a rock after opening weekend, that alone is enough to get a huge OW.

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42 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Or the fact they say that critics have a alleged DC bias even though both WW and TLBM got rave reviews.

 

This is a box office forum. If SW or an Avengers movie did these type of numbers, we would laugh just as loud.

Laugh? If an Avengers movie did JL numbers, a bunch of people here would be doing victory laps.

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5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

 

 

That's actually a great start for Darkest Hour, especially when it went head-to-head against the arthouse juggernaut that is Call Me by Your Name (which is also expected to be a much bigger Oscar player). It's a much bigger launch than Lion on the same weekend last year too.

darkest hour is gonna make more than cmbyn in the long run imo.

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10 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Infinity War should make about 430m

I find any estimate less than $500M domestic for IW to be ludicrous. Do you know how many repeat viewings this movie is going to get? Hardcore fans of the franchise and Marvel in general will see this movie 4-5 times in theaters. They've been waiting ten years for this. Ten years worth of subliminal and overt advertisement for a movie - an event - to a loyal fan base results in more than $500M. 

Edited by BluRayHiDef

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