5-Day Weekend Thread | Saturday #s (Asgard p.109) - Coco 17.7, Justice League 15.7, Wonder 8.3, Thor: Ragnarok 6.4, Daddy's Home 2 5.3

[Eric Atreides]

6 minutes ago, somebody85 said:

Oh yeah and speaking of that, does anyone know when it actually goes wide? I know it hits limited next week but I haven't seen any other dates yet.

Guessing end of December if not early January to stay away from TLJ and the other stuff being released around Christmas. Screener will probably be out by then.

Nothings out next week now if you don't live in NY or LA (I think those are the only two cities getting new releases). Disaster Artist doesn't go wide until the 8th.

If there is any saving grace for JL, it's that. Predicting Coco has a strong hold.

I feel it'll go for a La La Land style expansion. 4 theaters, then ~200, then 600-800 come Christmastime, then around the 1,000 mark in January.

[AniNate]

So what's the baumer mantra this time? FTSGD?

[CoolioD1]

2 minutes ago, 4815162342 said:

 

I haven't seen the film but the time period of May/June 1940 would make for a very good political thriller of sorts as you have a tug of war in the British Cabinet between the hawks and the appeasers as to whether to consider peace with Germany after France got blitzkrieged. From the trailers the film goes to more of a standard biopic drama route.

kinda. the script i read over a year ago (so probs different) now was basically British Lincoln.

Edited November 26, 2017 by CoolioD1

[YM!]

Just now, tribefan695 said:

So what's the baumer mantra this time? FTSGD?

I’m in contempt with the Coco?

[somebody85]

1 minute ago, La Binoche said:

What did you love? Maybe I missed some good things....

Films I rated an A or A- (it's rare for me to rate anything an A+):
A Ghost Story
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Coco (I know you disagree with this)

Detroit

Dunkirk
Gerald's Game
Ingrid Goes West
IT
Ladybird
Logan
War For The Planet Of The Apes
Wonder Woman

So yeah A24 has 3 releases that I've given an A that are all vastly different films. Props to them.

Also strong on the indie horror front were A Dark Song, Better Watch Out and Personal Shopper. The Big Sick was too Appatow for the first 20-30 minutes but got a lot better. A nice spot in the weakest genre of film right now (comedy).

Still waiting to watch Brigsby Bear, Good Time and Wind River (have been putting them off). And still need to see The Florida Project and Three Billboards.

[Eric Atreides]

Just now, somebody85 said:

Films I rated an A or A- (it's rare for me to rate anything an A+):
A Ghost Story
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Coco (I know you disagree with this)

Detroit

Dunkirk
Gerald's Game
Ingrid Goes West
IT
Ladybird
Logan
War For The Planet Of The Apes
Wonder Woman

So yeah A24 has 3 releases that I've given an A that are all vastly different films. Props to them.

You only have two A24 movies.

[a2k]

6 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

Jigsaw at 94 million

 

I guess 100 million worldwide locked now. 

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$37,292,414	39.6%
+ Foreign:	$56,900,000	60.4%
= Worldwide:	$94,192,414

was 88m ww last weekend so added a good 6m last week. 6m more should happen for 100m+.

[somebody85]

3 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

I feel it'll go for a La La Land style expansion. 4 theaters, then ~200, then 600-800 come Christmastime, then around the 1,000 mark in January.

Yeah that's what I'm guessing which kind of sucks because I want to see it. I'm guessing it will go much wider around early to mid January.

[YM!]

Like 2016 with animation, 2017 is the year of the CBM. No MCU, DCEU, or Fox CBM this year went under $200M domestic. Most of them went $800M+ or higher. I wonder if 2018 will have a fall for CBMs.

[MikeQ]

29 minutes ago, narniadis said:

I think the Sunday hold for the family films (Coco in particular are really optimistic) wouldn't surprise me at all to see some decent % adjustments in the actuals.

 

The Sunday drop for Coco doesn't look unreasonable to me - I expect it will be around that area. This would be in line with Moana, which it has followed rather closely (with a somewhat worse Friday increase balanced by a better Thursday hold):

 

Coco

Thu: -32.6%

Fri: +112.1%

Sat: -2.8%

Sun: -36.6%

 

Moana

Thu: -36%

Fri: +119.5%

Sat: -2.1%

Sun: -36.7%

 

The Good Dinosaur also only dropped 38.8% on it's Thanksgiving Sunday.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

4 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Good for Coco, should do $ 70M 5-day and $ + 200M total [hope for $ 250M]

 

$ 500M worldwide is almost locked with China's breakout

 

I'm really happy with this success, i was afraid the movie turn into a commercial failure like TGD

Under $200M DOM without a nice amount WW (over and above Mexico) isn't gonna make this a "commercial success" b/c I doubt it has the toy/merchandise breakout of other Pixar movies...I mean, it is a rumored $225M Production budget, only $75M less than JL's supposed production budget...it needs big numbers, although not as big as JL...

Edited November 26, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[somebody85]

1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

You only have two A24 movies.

Damn it, I thought Ingrid Goes West was A24 but you're right it's Neon. It certainly feels like it and that's where I first saw the trailer (in front of Ghost Story).

 

[Bishop54]

Perfect movie tie in. 

 

Edited November 26, 2017 by Bishop54

[ThomasNicole]

20 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Coco might go over JL WW. I never say that coming. Hell, I thought JL would double it.

 

 

Coco should finish from $210M-$250M.

$100M from China

$50M from Mexico

$50M-$100M from Japan

 

Assuming JL finishes at $675M WW, Coco needs anywhere from $175M-$225M from everywhere else to top it.  There’s even a chance if this explodes in Japan, has strong legs here and does great business in both Latin America and Europe, Coco can reach $1B 

10 days ago almost everybody is thinking Coco will underperform and now it's doing great in USA, exploding on China and potentially outgross JL worldwide

 

A truly plot twist

[cookie]

9 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

So what's the baumer mantra this time? FTSGD?

Coco No Bueno

Edited November 26, 2017 by cookie

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

10 days ago almost everybody is thinking Coco will underperform and now it's doing great in USA, exploding on China and potentially outgross JL worldwide

 

A truly plot twist

 

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, Bishop54 said:

Perfect movie tie in. 

 

Do you bleed? You won't.

[somebody85]

3 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Like 2016 with animation, 2017 is the year of the CBM. No MCU, DCEU, or Fox CBM this year went under $200M domestic. Most of them went $800M+ or higher. I wonder if 2018 will have a fall for CBMs.

I actually thought this year was pretty weak for those too as far as quality. Outside of Logan and Wonder Woman, found them all pretty average and forgettable. Box office wise, it's a different story. I agree that animation this year has not been strong which is why Coco was such a breath of fresh air.

Rankings for those:
Logan - A-
GOTG 2 - B-
Wonder Woman - A-
Spider-Man: Homecoming - B
Thor: Ragnarok - B
Justice League - C+

If you want to include The Lego Batman Movie - C.


 

 

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, the beast said:

Could It still reach $150m+?

unlikely....I don't know what happened, but the momentum just doesn't live up to its initial thought, 19% drop is great ,but not great enough to allow it to top $150m, GO dropped was just 15% in this march without holiday push. Same goes to Coco, doing great but not better given how full force it was in initially. 

[TalismanRing]

18 minutes ago, YourMother said:

The DCEU will be fine. Shazam, WW2 and Aquaman will do $300M+ domestic. They’ll probably use Flashpoint to make the past DCEU films except for WW non canonical.

I can't buy into these Aquaman over $300m and $800m WW predictions.  All we have for it so far is Momoa as AM who didn't exactly set the world on fire in JL.  At least let me see a trailer and some marketing that delivers.  And Shazam? $300m why?