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Ms Lady Hawk

Tuesday #s- JL- 2.96 Forbes

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Hilarious, infinity war trailer drops and everyone forgets about JL. JL can’t catch a break.

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24 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

that was looking obvious since opening weekend

I wasn't really checking for it.

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14 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Thee Billboards only increased 19% :gold: Lady Bird increased 47% though!

And Three Billboards will have small decent drop today. It's normal.

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Wait a minute. Hold up. Does Thor really look like it has a shot at 300m or am I tripping?


Should make it to 300m. There is like zero new movies coming out in the next two weeks.

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Hilarious, infinity war trailer drops and everyone forgets about JL. JL can’t catch a break.


JL was doomed the moment BvS came out.

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15 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:


Should make it to 300m. There is like zero new movies coming out in the next two weeks.

It is locked unless it somehow starts having much bigger drops than it has to date. It has largely tracked Doctor Strange's drops so no reason to expect that to change and Doctor Strange earned another $25M after the same day and Thor is still beating it in the dailies pretty handily. 

Edited by SoSaysI
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Some forecasting:

 

Coco:

 

2M (-38%)

1.9M (-3%)

 

6.6M (+245%)

13.2M (+100%)

9M (-32%)

28.8M Weekend, 43% drop

 

Coco is looking good for a sub-50 drop as these are Moana-like holds with a 6% better Friday increase

 

JL:
 

1.9M (-38%)

1.8M (-5%)

 

4.3M (+140%)

6.5M (+50%)

3.9M (-40%)

14.7M Weekend, 64% drop

 

Wonder:

 

1.1M (-40%)

1.1M (-)

 

3M (+170%)

5.4M (+80%)

3.6M (-33%)

12M Weekend, 47% drop

 

Wonder has a lot of variables at play here. We know this is skewing somewhat older, but it also has a substantial family audience. A 100% increase on Saturday isn't impossible.

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Long rang predictions:

 

Coco:

 

Dec 1: 28.8M (5.8M weekdays, 117M Total)

Dec 8: 17.5M (3.4M weekdays, 137.9M Total)

Dec 15: 8.5M (6.7M weekdays, 153.1M Total)

Dec 22: 4.7M (7.5M weekdays, 165.3M Total)

Dec 29: 4.7M (4.7M weekdays, 174.9M Total)

Jan 6: 5.7M (1.3M weekdays, 181.9M Total)

Jan 13: 1.6M (800k weekdays, 184.3M Total)

Fianl Total: 188M (3.7x from 3 day/2.58x from 5 day)

 

Coco won't have the benefit of light family competition like Moana did. Moana really only faced Sing and Rogue One; Coco has to face Last Jedi, Ferdinand, Jumanji, and Greatest Showman and has Paddington over MLK weekend. This will still be a great finish with a better OS total than Moana though.

 

JL:

 

Dec 1: 14.7M (4.1M weekdays, 199.5M Total)

Dec 8: 6.5M (1.9M weekdays, 207.9M Total)

Dec 15: 1.9M (1.2M weekdays, 211M Total)

Dec 22: 500k (600k weekdays, 212.1M Total)

Dec 29: 500k (400k weekdays, 213M Total)

Jan 6: 300k (100k weekdays, 213.4 Total)

Final Total: 215M (2.29x)

 

We'll see how it holds next weekend, but with a 60%+ drop in store this weekend, this may totally collapse once Star Wars opens :jeb!: 

 

I'll do Wonder later if I feel like it

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What's JL's current world wide take? It should be at $500M at this point; it's got to be. 

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2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Long rang predictions:

 

Coco:

 

Dec 1: 28.8M (5.8M weekdays, 117M Total)

Dec 8: 17.5M (3.4M weekdays, 137.9M Total)

Dec 15: 8.5M (6.7M weekdays, 153.1M Total)

Dec 22: 4.7M (7.5M weekdays, 165.3M Total)

Dec 29: 4.7M (4.7M weekdays, 174.9M Total)

Jan 6: 5.7M (1.3M weekdays, 181.9M Total)

Jan 13: 1.6M (800k weekdays, 184.3M Total)

Fianl Total: 188M (3.7x from 3 day/2.58x from 5 day)

 

Coco won't have the benefit of light family competition like Moana did. Moana really only faced Sing and Rogue One; Coco has to face Last Jedi, Ferdinand, Jumanji, and Greatest Showman and has Paddington over MLK weekend. This will still be a great finish with a better OS total than Moana though.

 

JL:

 

Dec 1: 14.7M (4.1M weekdays, 199.5M Total)

Dec 8: 6.5M (1.9M weekdays, 207.9M Total)

Dec 15: 1.9M (1.2M weekdays, 211M Total)

Dec 22: 500k (600k weekdays, 212.1M Total)

Dec 29: 500k (400k weekdays, 213M Total)

Jan 6: 300k (100k weekdays, 213.4 Total)

Final Total: 215M (2.29x)

 

We'll see how it holds next weekend, but with a 60%+ drop in store this weekend, this may totally collapse once Star Wars opens :jeb!: 

 

I'll do Wonder later if I feel like it

Just from my opinion, I think Coco can still finish with $200M. I don't think Ferdinand and Greatest Showman will do that well.

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3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Some forecasting:

 

Coco:

 

2M (-38%)

1.9M (-3%)

 

6.6M (+245%)

13.2M (+100%)

9M (-32%)

28.8M Weekend, 43% drop

 

Coco is looking good for a sub-50 drop as these are Moana-like holds with a 6% better Friday increase

 

JL:
 

1.9M (-38%)

1.8M (-5%)

 

4.3M (+140%)

6.5M (+50%)

3.9M (-40%)

14.7M Weekend, 64% drop

 

Wonder:

 

1.1M (-40%)

1.1M (-)

 

3M (+170%)

5.4M (+80%)

3.6M (-33%)

12M Weekend, 47% drop

 

Wonder has a lot of variables at play here. We know this is skewing somewhat older, but it also has a substantial family audience. A 100% increase on Saturday isn't impossible.

It also dropped 77.5% Monday. I think it will finish closer to 13m this weekend but I do think that it will definitely avoid a 50% drop due to its fantastic WOM.

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5 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Long rang predictions:

 

Coco:

 

Dec 1: 28.8M (5.8M weekdays, 117M Total)

Dec 8: 17.5M (3.4M weekdays, 137.9M Total)

Dec 15: 8.5M (6.7M weekdays, 153.1M Total)

Dec 22: 4.7M (7.5M weekdays, 165.3M Total)

Dec 29: 4.7M (4.7M weekdays, 174.9M Total)

Jan 6: 5.7M (1.3M weekdays, 181.9M Total)

Jan 13: 1.6M (800k weekdays, 184.3M Total)

Fianl Total: 188M (3.7x from 3 day/2.58x from 5 day)

 

Coco won't have the benefit of light family competition like Moana did. Moana really only faced Sing and Rogue One; Coco has to face Last Jedi, Ferdinand, Jumanji, and Greatest Showman and has Paddington over MLK weekend. This will still be a great finish with a better OS total than Moana though.

Moana also faced Fantastic Beasts.  Yes there's more competition but aside from SW it's not significant competition.

 

Coco has already pulled ahead of Moana in dailies this Tues.  It's about $9m behind.    I can't see it how it ends up almost $60m behind

 

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5 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Coco:

 

Fianl Total: 188M (3.7x from 3 day/2.58x from 5 day)

Coco won't have the benefit of light family competition like Moana did. Moana really only faced Sing and Rogue One; Coco has to face Last Jedi, Ferdinand, Jumanji, and Greatest Showman and has Paddington over MLK weekend. This will still be a great finish with a better OS total than Moana though.

 

This is really a stretch, they are competition in the same way Sing, Rogue One, Passengers, Assassin's Creed, Why Him?, La La Land  are competition, obviously there's gonna be plenty of films released in Dec/Jan holiday season each year, and some probably have audience overlap with Coco, it's just that I don't see what's so different this year that lead to Coco having unreasonably bad legs.

 

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9 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

This is really a stretch, they are competition in the same way Sing, Rogue One, Passengers, Assassin's Creed, Why Him?, La La Land  are competition, obviously there's gonna be plenty of films released in Dec/Jan holiday season each year, and some probably have audience overlap with Coco, it's just that I don't see what's so different this year that lead to Coco having unreasonably bad legs.

 

They're all movies targeting families, especially the Fox ones with their PG ratings. Jumanji is going to be big too if the early reactions from critics are any indication.

Edited by WrathOfHan

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Keep in mind that Moana was 6th last Christmas and was able to hit 4th on the last weekend of the year. Coco will likely be 9th (Star Wars/Jumanji/Pitch Perfect/Greatest Showman/Ferdinand/All the Money in the World/Downsizing/Father Figures) and potentially be 10th depending how wide Darkest Hour goes.

Edited by WrathOfHan

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I just realized tonight that Friend Request is playing at my local discount theater 2 miles away. Tickets are $3.95 for their one daily showing (10:05pm). I almost want to go, buy a ticket, and walk out to see if I can be the 4 dollar gross for a day. Their seats are so hard and they only play movies you can rent so I never go there unless I get dragged by someone.

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4 minutes ago, Substandard Towels said:

I just realized tonight that Friend Request is playing at my local discount theater 2 miles away. Tickets are $3.95 for their one daily showing (10:05pm). I almost want to go, buy a ticket, and walk out to see if I can be the 4 dollar gross for a day. Their seats are so hard and they only play movies you can rent so I never go there unless I get dragged by someone.

Yikes :gold: You must do it for the greater good though!

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7 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Long rang predictions:

 

JL:

 

 

Dec 22: 500k (600k weekdays, 212.1M Total)

Dec 29: 500k (400k weekdays, 213M Total)

Jan 6: 300k (100k weekdays, 213.4 Total)

 

These 3 drops in particular seem way off. Weekends and weekdays. 

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