WrathOfHan Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, filmlover said: He probably still thinks mother! is gonna get an Oscar nom for even Sound Editing. Yes, it will. 2 minutes ago, The Last Panda said: Yeah, last year you could have made the argument, "They didn't nominate La La Land because it didn't have an ensemble!" (And still remember, La La Land missed and lost the Oscar) But when your movie is ensemble based like the Post (as well as Shape of Water, Dunkirk, CMBYN, and The Florida Project) and you missed, it does indicate a lack of support from a major branch. That's especially true when your movie missed a lot of key nominations like CMBYN did with Hammer/Stuhlberg and The Post did with Streep and Hanks. Also, I think the Big Sick (despite a Globe miss in comedy) is a strong contender for the ninth slot, if there will be nine, now. I'd also say Mudbound, but I'm too skeptical of the academy shutting it out because of it being Netflix. How can a group support something when the vast majority of members haven't seen the film? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 Also, Best Actor is such a headache now. Call Me by Your Name is clearly losing steam, but it's not like Darkest Hour has much to begin with aside from Oldman. If the former also ends up missing Best Picture, that'll make it even worse. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: 2012 Supporting Actor lineup at SAG: Alan Arkin Javier Barden Robert De Niro Phillip Seymour Hoffman Tommy Lee Jones Oscar winner: Not saying it can't happen, but Waltz was picking up more precursor wins than Streep is right now. If Streep gets both the BAFTA and Globe, I'd say she'd have a chance, but I don't think I'd predict that (maybe she gets the Globe, but I don't see her getting the BAFTA over Ronan or McDormand) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said: Yes, it will. How can a group support something when the vast majority of members haven't seen the film? Maybe that argument plays out. But it is historically hard for late-comers in the race to become the major frontrunner. Especially when The Post is a movie that's liked, but isn't getting massive amounts of acclaim. It has a fair amount of people that don't like it, which is death when you're thinking of a preferential ballot that prefers the movie everyone likes and will place within their top 3 noms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, The Last Panda said: Maybe that argument plays out. But it is historically hard for late-comers in the race to become the major frontrunner. Especially when The Post is a movie that's liked, but isn't getting massive amounts of acclaim. It has a fair amount of people that don't like it, which is death when you're thinking of a preferential ballot that prefers the movie everyone likes and will place within their top 3 noms. You also have to look at the current political climate. Giving The Post the win would be a huge middle finger to Trump, especially with one of his favorite actresses in it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 the post just get "deleted" in SAG......The big sick is getting support from actor/actress branch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 21 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: You also have to look at the current political climate. Giving The Post the win would be a huge middle finger to Trump, especially with one of his favorite actresses in it I think Hollywood has moved beyond politics and is more focused on the sexual harassment cases that are happening right now. Given all of that, I think everything is really moving in Lady Bird's direction (if a "women's movie" is gonna win any year, it might as well be this one). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, filmlover said: I think Hollywood has moved beyond politics and is more focused on the sexual harassment cases that are happening right now. Given all of that, I think everything is really moving in Lady Bird's direction (if a "women's movie" is gonna win any year, it might as well be this one). The Me Too movement helps Three Billboards out a lot more than Lady Bird IMO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyK Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 These awards are all over the place, there isn't any clear consensus coming out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 34 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: You also have to look at the current political climate. Giving The Post the win would be a huge middle finger to Trump, especially with one of his favorite actresses in it Three Billboards, Get Out and Lady Bird are all politically relevant as well (and all of them would be answers to Hollywood controversies from this year and last year). They awarded a similar film to the Post, Spotlight, just two years ago and there isn't much indication that the Academy is necessarily going to award a movie as a political statement. Further, if the political statement aspect were true, you'd have seen SAG and other critics start following through. There's obviously room for other precursors to start giving the Post awards, but as of right now I don't think it's in contention. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Atreides Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 53 minutes ago, filmlover said: Also, Best Actor is such a headache now. Call Me by Your Name is clearly losing steam, but it's not like Darkest Hour has much to begin with aside from Oldman. If the former also ends up missing Best Picture, that'll make it even worse. Have faith in Tiny Tim. Spoiler Or perhaps Franco will swoop in and fumble his way to the win. (Get it? fumble? ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, CoolEric258 said: Have faith in Tiny Tim. Hide contents Or perhaps Franco will swoop in and fumble his way to the win. (Get it? fumble? ) ahaha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, CoolEric258 said: Have faith in Tiny Tim. Hide contents Or perhaps Franco will swoop in and fumble his way to the win. (Get it? fumble? ) You mean Lil' Timmy Tim. (no joke, "Ms. Lawton Klara" is my jam of the moment. Statistics, yep!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 Also, Lucas Hedges just turned 21 yesterday and already has 4 SAG nominations to his name (3 of which are part of Ensemble but still) along with an Oscar nomination. @WrathOfHan what are you doing with your life? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Late screeners or not Meryl missing for a well-reviewed "relevant" movie is kinda shocking. She will still make the oscar line-up. And I guess Chastain aint happening after all I guess what I got from these nominations is that 3 billboards even after not winning enough critics awards is still the frontrunner of sorts and Lady Bird, Get Out look like the other real conteders. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 I'd predict a Timothee win but his age. Oldman and Franco both seem like easy choice, but Kaluuya is oddly a dark horse as he's won a few (not just been nominated). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 (edited) I think Chalamet needed Call Me by Your Name to be a top 5 contender for him to have a chance at winning. But it clearly isn't. I think it's a given at this point that Oldman is gonna win for a film that's not up for Best Picture. It has happened in the past decade (since the expansion, Jeff Bridges, Meryl Streep, Christopher Plummer, Cate Blanchett, and Julianne Moore all won for movies that weren't up for the top prize), it can happen again this year. Edited December 13, 2017 by filmlover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Without having seen most of those movies (except the early releases like Dunkirk,Big Sick) I'm just rooting for something different from a 3B/Dunkirk split. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 13 minutes ago, Joel M said: Without having seen most of those movies (except the early releases like Dunkirk,Big Sick) I'm just rooting for something different from a 3B/Dunkirk split. I'm still kinda thinking get out takes it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: I'm still kinda thinking get out takes it. That would be great. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
