SAG Discussion thread

[redfirebird2008]

5 hours ago, The Last Panda said:

 

Also, it's worth noting there's a really high importance for a BP winner to have SAG nom (not necessarily a win) as it indicates major support from the actors branch of the academy.  

 

I'd say this puts the BP race between Lady Bird, Get Out and Three Billboards.

 

Agreed. Very surprised Call Me By Your Name and The Post didn't make the SAG ensemble list.

[WrathOfHan]

SAG's lineup stats this decade:

 

Actor (only the 2016 winner [Washington over Affleck] lost):

2016: 5/5

2015: 4/5 (Depp instead of Damon; The Martian also wasn't an ensemble nominee, which served as a forecast for Ridley's snub)

2014: 4/5 (Gyllenhaal instead of Cooper, who had a late screener)

2013: 3/5 (Hanks and Whitaker instead of DiCaprio and Bale; the former had a late screener)

2012: 4/5 (Hawkes instead of Phoenix)

2011: 4/5 (DiCaprio instead of Oldman)

2010: 4/5 (Duvall instead of Bardem)

 

Actress (only the 2011 winner [Davis over Streep] lost):

2016: 3/5 (Adams and Blunt instead of Huppert and Negga)

2015: 3/5 (Mirren and Silverman instead of Lawrence and Rampling)

2014: 4/5 (Aniston instead of Cotillard)

2013: 4/5 (Thompson instead of Adams)

2012: 3/5 (Cotillard and Mirren instead of Riva and Wallis)

2011: 4/5 (Swinton instead of Mara; I believe Dragon Tattoo was a late screener)

2010: 4/5 (Swank instead of Williams; not sure if this was due to a late screener because Blue Valentine had to be re-rated)

 

Supporting Actor (The Oscar winner lost in 2015 [Elba over Rylance] and 2012 [TLJ over Waltz, who wasn't even nominated]):

2016: 4/5 (Grant instead of Shannon)

2015: 2/5 (Elba, Shannon, and Tremblay instead of Hardy, Ruffalo, and Stallone)

2014: 5/5

2013: 3/5 (Bruhl and Gandolfini instead of Cooper and Hill, the latter of which had a late screener)

2012: 4/5 (Bardem instead of Waltz, who had a late screener)

2011: 4/5 (Hammer instead of Hill)

2010: 5/5

 

Supporting Actress (the winner has always won the Oscar):

2016: 5/5

2015: 4/5 (Mirren instead of Leigh, who had a late screener)

2014: 4/5 (Janey-E instead of Diane)

2013: 4/5 (Winfrey instead of Hawkins)

2012: 3/5 (Kidman and Smith instead of Adams and Weaver)

2011: 5/5

2010: 4/5 (Kunis instead of Weaver)

Edited December 13, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[Valonqar]

I'm not gonna say anything cause I don't want to jinx a movie I stand for and actors but so far so mighty good, that GG clusterfuck in Director aside. 

[Fancyarcher]

2 hours ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Agreed. Very surprised Call Me By Your Name and The Post didn't make the SAG ensemble list.

The Post screened late apparently. I'm not sure if this will affect its Oscar chances or not. I'm curious, it'll still get a best picture nomination, but I put Spielberg's chances of a nom on the fringes.

Edited December 13, 2017 by Fancyarcher

[The Panda]

20 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

The Post screened late apparently. I'm not sure if this will affect its Oscar chances or not. I'm curious, it'll still get a best picture nomination, but I put Spielberg's chances of a nom on the fringes.

Oscars haven't started the nom process, so it shouldn't hurt them.  I think it's safe to say Streep gets in over Dench, Hanks is another question given the fact the Academy seems to snub him a lot recently.

 

I also think late Phantom Thread kept DDL out over Washington.  So I'd replace Washington with either DDL or Hanks (leaning on DDL)

 

Harrelson is probably the most in danger of the Supp actor SAG noms to not get an Oscar nod, then Carell (However I think Carell could get in as their alternatives are either double noms, Stewart or Plummer).

 

For Supp Actress, I could see all 5 making it in, but if any swap out it'll be Chau or Blige (because of Netflix), and they'd be swapped with Spencer or Hadish (Maybe Maville, but that seems like an off-chance).

Edited December 13, 2017 by The Last Panda

[4815162342]

Not a surprise SAG didn't nominate Plummer since no one other than HFPA has actually seen the film

[WrathOfHan]

I just realized Searchlight has 4/5 Supporting Actor nominees  

[Fancyarcher]

1 hour ago, The Last Panda said:

Oscars haven't started the nom process, so it shouldn't hurt them.  I think it's safe to say Streep gets in over Dench, Hanks is another question given the fact the Academy seems to snub him a lot recently.

 

I also think late Phantom Thread kept DDL out over Washington.  So I'd replace Washington with either DDL or Hanks (leaning on DDL)

 

Harrelson is probably the most in danger of the Supp actor SAG noms to not get an Oscar nod, then Carell (However I think Carell could get in as their alternatives are either double noms, Stewart or Plummer).

 

For Supp Actress, I could see all 5 making it in, but if any swap out it'll be Chau or Blige (because of Netflix), and they'd be swapped with Spencer or Hadish (Maybe Maville, but that seems like an off-chance).

I don't think Carrell's getting a nomination, it's more of a SAG thing anyway, possibly the same thing with Washington (I'll be a bit surprised if DDL gets snubbed anyway). I also think Spencer's getting in supporting in place of Blige because of Netflix. 

[WrathOfHan]

This is where I have Supporting Actor at:

 

1. Rockwell

2. Dafoe

3. Jenkins

----------------

4. Odenkirk

5. Harrelson

6. Hammer

----------------

7. Carell

8. Plummer

9. Stuhlbarg

10. Shannon

[Webslinger]

Great news for Three Billboards. I get the feeling that we're not going to see Harrelson at the Oscars, but the SAG nomination definitely puts him in a better position to potentially crack the lineup.

 

Looks like The Big Sick isn't as dead as the Globe shutout suggested.

 

I'm kinda disappointed that they nominated Denzel Washington. He's handily the best part of a disappointing film, but it's not in the same tier as the other performances for which he gained awards traction - especially last year's Fences. An Oscar nod for that performance would be a lazy nomination.

 

I guess I shouldn't be so surprised because it isn't an awards film or a big-budget offering, but the omission of John Wick: Chapter 2 in Stunt Ensemble is disappointing. The stuntwork went a long, long way toward making the movie as deliriously entertaining as it was.

[filmlover]

6 hours ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Agreed. Very surprised Call Me By Your Name and The Post didn't make the SAG ensemble list.

Call Me by Your Name always faced a challenge here because it's mostly a two man show between Chalamet and Hammer (Ensemble would've cemented a top 5 status though). 

[The Panda]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

This is where I have Supporting Actor at:

 

1. Rockwell

2. Dafoe

3. Jenkins

----------------

4. Odenkirk

5. Harrelson

6. Hammer

----------------

7. Carell

8. Plummer

9. Stuhlbarg

10. Shannon

Odenkirk's definitely not 4.  He hasn't gotten notice beyond a few twitter shoutouts.

[filmlover]

Well this is a unique, and at the same really nice, gesture: all of the categories will be presented by women at the ceremony.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/13/movies/sag-awards-all-female-presenters.html?_r=0

[PenguinHyphy]

The Carrell and Harrellson placements are surprising. I suspect Plummer and another person to replace them at the Oscars. 

Edited December 14, 2017 by PenguinHyphy

[PenguinHyphy]

On 12/11/2017 at 9:11 PM, WrathOfHan said:

What early release could get an ensemble nomination? The Big Sick is the only one that comes to mind because Dunkirk and Get Out are not performance driven movies.

 And you were saying what exactly?SAG voters are populists and have very broad tastes. That is why The Big Sick and Get Out are easy to highlight as potential ensemble nominees as your post makes apparent after my goading. Most Oscar pundits and bloggers are wrong. There are a few who actually report what is going on in the industry, but the rest report what they want to transpire. 

 

I have already stated that most of the things that I see post on here have absolutely no basis when someone stated that the Oscar nominees are going to be all white this year. Surely enough, the four that I stated as having huge buzz are the ones who have Globe plus SAG nominations. It is just so strange how people fabricate their own narratives. 

 

Call Me By Your is not widely liked within the industry. It makes many people uncomfortable in a negative way, so I have no idea why people are predicting it to be a force at the Oscars. The entire sexual assault revolution is really exacerbating that. As I have been saying, there is a high possibility that it goes the Carol route, which is appearing more likely seeing as it is performing worse than Carol at the same point in the industry awards. 

[filmlover]

Just now, PenguinHyphy said:

The entire sexual assault revolution is really exacerbating that.

If Call Me by Your Name was a movie about sexual assault, maybe. But, ya know, it's not.

[SLAM!]

6 hours ago, filmlover said:

If Call Me by Your Name was a movie about sexual assault, maybe. But, ya know, it's not.

 

The sexual assault revolution has had and will continue to have unforeseen consequences- both positive and negative- across the entire board of the film industry. The #MeToo movement is the TIME Person of the Year and the SAG awards will be presented entirely by women because those are consequences of the revolution. Another possible consequence is that a romance between a young man and a somewhat older man will suddenly cause discomfort among more voters than it would have, because the general concept of such a romance is closely and unavoidably linked to the general concept of what Kevin Spacey did to Anthony Rapp and other young victims. I agree with PenguinHyphy in saying that Call Me By Your Name could very well go the Carol route because, in this tense atmosphere around Hollywood at the current moment, more than a few Oscar voters might have only so much they can stomach. Of course, if it gets snubbed like I think it might, people will call it out as such, but it will be what it will be.

[The Panda]

I will say the first time I saw the trailer for CMBYN the age gap rubbed me the wrong way.  Maybe the movie is doing that to some academy voters?  Especially with the recent Spacey stuff (unfair but still)?

 

However it's way too early to tell.

 

Ensemble was very competitive this year, and CMBYN is a rather small cast.  Snubs have happened before, and Hammer could still find his way in.  I'd wait until we get some more guild nominees to decide.  Plus, CMBYN has more acclaim than Carol, as it's winning more Critics awards and overall has stronger reviews.  And despite surface level similarities, CMBYN is definitely less cold than Carol

Edited December 15, 2017 by The Last Panda

[filmlover]

There honestly hasn't been any kind of vocal backlash towards Call Me by Your Name beyond the "ewww a gay movie" comments you would expect to find from bigots in the YouTube comments section and such. I think it was a great move on SPC's part that they sent Chalamet and Hammer on the entire press tour for the film together (Q&As, talk shows, etc.) and that the actors have charmed everyone they've come across (which will help sell voters on their chemistry in the film and will be why both get nominated in their respective categories even in the event the film ends up missing Best Picture).

[NCsoft]

7 hours ago, PenguinHyphy said:

 As I have been saying, there is a high possibility that it goes the Carol route, which is appearing more likely seeing as it is performing worse than Carol at the same point in the industry awards. 

Maybe, maybe not, Carol has the same metacritic score but CMBYN is definitely better received among movie goers in general. Carol alienated a lot of people by being relatively cold. 

CMBYN also has better standing in the best actor and adapted screenplay race than Carol was, these may propel it to  getting a BP nomination, at least I hope so. 

Edited December 15, 2017 by NCsoft