THE LAST JEDI (and Ferdinand) WEEKEND THREAD | JEDI 220m, FERDINAND 13.3m, COCO 10m (official estimates) | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SALE ON GOLD & PREMIUM ACCOUNTS IN FIRST POST

[JonathanLB]

Uhh well anything is possible but you’re assuming that everyone cares about Avatar like you do. How often does anyone talk about Avatar now days? It was one movie. Bond is a beloved franchise that everyone knows about, literally everyone, and the biggest Bond is lucky for $1B worldwide. If Avatar 2-5 (is it 5?) each made $1.5B on average worldwide my god Fox (so Disney) would be stoked. That would be Avengers average grosses worldwide, and put Avatar firmly as the premium worldwide franchise. I think people forget how much money that is. Could Avatar 2 hit $2B? Sure how the hell do I know, maybe foreign audiences are somehow obsessed with it despite no sequel in almost a decade. But better bet is they’ve since seen countless 3D movies and story wise there’s nothing particularly special about Avatar to them that would justify it doubling Avengers as you seem to think it will. Nobody doubts Avatar 2 will be a very large success but I certainly don’t see it as the second coming of cinema. 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, JonathanLB said:

Uhh well anything is possible but you’re assuming that everyone cares about Avatar like you do. How often does anyone talk about Avatar now days? It was one movie. Bond is a beloved franchise that everyone knows about, literally everyone, and the biggest Bond is lucky for $1B worldwide. If Avatar 2-5 (is it 5?) each made $1.5B on average worldwide my god Fox (so Disney) would be stoked. That would be Avengers average grosses worldwide, and put Avatar firmly as the premium worldwide franchise. I think people forget how much money that is. Could Avatar 2 hit $2B? Sure how the hell do I know, maybe foreign audiences are somehow obsessed with it despite no sequel in almost a decade. But better bet is they’ve since seen countless 3D movies and story wise there’s nothing particularly special about Avatar to them that would justify it doubling Avengers as you seem to think it will. Nobody doubts Avatar 2 will be a very large success but I certainly don’t see it as the second coming of cinema. 

 

James Cameron should not be under estimated.  I did it once with Avatar.  i won't do it again.

[JonathanLB]

1 minute ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

I don't see how that is going to happen.  A normal Christmas season multiplier of 3.3 gives it 726.  I'd say 800 is the target.  The audience reaction to this is quite positive.

Funny thing here. My dad used to troll my sister, this really pissed her off (and was nonsense lol), by saying girls don’t acquire logic until they hit 25 because their brain is still growing. He mainly said this just to poke her. So we still joke about it. My GF is 23, and PostTrak said girls under 25 gave it 81% positive, guys were 89 / 90 so didn’t matter age, and girls over 25 at 94%. Very odd, large difference between girls over / under 25. I told my GF that her ranking TLJ last among SW movies is clearly because she’s under 25 and hasn’t acquired logic yet. She went to sleep earlier because of work; can’t wait to see what she texts back in the morning  LOL

[YM!]

22 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Agree with the TLJ stuff but your Avatar predictions are waaaaay off! Avatar made over $2b overseas. May I remind you Avatar sold 20million more tickets than The Force Awakens in Europe, it was the highest grossing film in China making $200m. The highest grossing film in China now has made $800m.. so it's more than possible we see Avatar with close to a billion from China alone.

Again better exchange rates. It adjusts to a still strong $1.6B OS but with the appeal of 3D gone, unless Cameron pulls VR 3D out of his ass, I can see $1.3B-$1.45B. Domestically, sure Avatar was big but again I doubt it stocked much, R1 numbers seem right. Besides the only non foreign film from China to do about $400M was F8te and that was frontloaded as fuck.

[YM!]

20 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

if we're talking about the hottest guy in star wars, i think the answer is pretty obvious.

 

  Hide contents

 

😩😩😩😩

[MattW]

2 hours ago, Noctis said:

Can someone explain something to me, please? It's always confused me.

 

HBP did $302m in 2009. DH1 did $296m in 2010. Yet when you adjust it to 2017 prices, HBP is at $363m and DH1 at $330m. How is the gap so massive?

I noticed another one, Jurassic world's Saturday adjusts up over 4 million while force awakens adjusts up less than 2m just 6 months later from nearly the same starting point

[La Binoche]

 

[YM!]

 

[La Binoche]

Lady Bird less than $2M away from passing Moonlight to become A24's highest grossing film. 

[IronJimbo]

6 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Again better exchange rates. It adjusts to a still strong $1.6B OS but with the appeal of 3D gone, unless Cameron pulls VR 3D out of his ass, I can see $1.3B-$1.45B. Domestically, sure Avatar was big but again I doubt it stocked much, R1 numbers seem right. Besides the only non foreign film from China to do about $400M was F8te and that was frontloaded as fuck.

You can't bring up exchange rates then disregard inflation.

[YM!]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

You can't bring up exchange rates then disregard inflation.

I’m not. I just don’t think the appeal will be as strong as the first one. I don’t see it doing more than $400M in China either.

[DAR]

Avatar 2 won't do as well as Avatar but it's stil going to do pretty damn good.

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I’m not. I just don’t think the appeal will be as strong as the first one. I don’t see it doing more than $400M in China either.

It made 14 million dollars from 16 imax screens in China (thats all they had in 2009).

 

Anyway it wouldn't be fun if everyone predicted the same thing, kind of a downer of the TLJ run to be honest. The fact that everyone is estimating TFA's gross minus 5-30%. It's going to be awesome when Avatar hits cinema because we're going to have people estimating under 1 billion, and some going as high as $4billion. Done with Avatar talk no derail.

[La Binoche]

2 minutes ago, DARth DAR said:

Avatar 2 won't do as well as Avatar but it's stil going to do pretty damn good.

It just needs to come out before everyone who saw Avatar in theaters has died. 

[RamblinRed]

55 minutes ago, a2knet said:

+6% from true Friday. SW7 was +10%. Totally understandable for a sequel.

104.8 + 63.6 + 50.8 (-20%) = 219.2

That's a good guess.

I'm going with 104.8 +63.6 + 54 (-15% - split the difference between R1 and TFA) = 222.4

 

whatever estimate Disney gives i'm expecting the actual to be a little higher Monday afternoon.

 

assuming a 220 base 3X gets you to 660, that seems to be about the absolute floor at this point, and pretty unlikely.

Anything over a 3.2X gets you over 700.

R1 multiplier gets you over 750, TFA multiplier gets you over 800.

 

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

It made 14 million dollars from 16 imax screens in China (thats all they had in 2009).

 

Anyway it wouldn't be fun if everyone predicted the same thing, kind of a downer of the TLJ run to be honest. The fact that everyone is estimating TFA's gross minus 5-30%. It's going to be awesome when Avatar hits cinema because we're going to have people estimating under 1 billion, and some going as high as $4billion. Done with Avatar talk no derail.

Jedi is doing as well as I expected ($750M-$800M/$1.5B-$1.6B). Avatar will decrease but have a solid run ($475M/$2.B), when almost every blockbuster has 3D it’s not special anymore.

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Jedi is doing as well as I expected ($750M-$800M/$1.5B-$1.6B). Avatar will decrease but have a solid run ($475M/$2.B), when almost every blockbuster has 3D it’s not special anymore.

You're making the assumption Avatar's gross was solely because of the 3D buzz. Ahhhh sorry no more Avatar lol

[DMan7]

I thought this was the Ferdinand thread why da fck are people talking about silly wars in space?

[DAR]

I would not be surprised if Bob Iger says to James Cameron, we're going to let you do your thing.  But here's another 200 million can you get this out by 2020

Edited December 17, 2017 by DARth DAR

[fabiopazzo2]

Avatar 2? Easy over 2B