THE LAST JEDI (and Ferdinand) WEEKEND THREAD | JEDI 220m, FERDINAND 13.3m, COCO 10m (official estimates) | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SALE ON GOLD & PREMIUM ACCOUNTS IN FIRST POST

[grey ghost]

Never change the title.

 

"Save the rebellion. Save the dream!"

 

 

[LinksterAC]

8 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

You can't bring up exchange rates then disregard inflation.

Inflation gains are probably another year or two away from cancelling out the exchange rate loss to the Euro.  That’s assuming exchange rates stay where they are, and don’t drop to early 2017 levels (in which case it could take another eight years).

 

So basically Avatar 2 has to equal Avatar’s number of tickets sold to get within shouting distance of its predecessor’s WW gross.  Maybe it can do that, but it will take some serious JC magic.  I’m not counting him out, because he’s a visionary who pushes the medium technically (while consistently telling good stories).  

 

That said, I think the original Avatar was a perfect storm of things that’s unlikely to be repeated given the movie’s tepid imprint on popular culture in the years since its release, and the broad adoption of its benchmark technology by the rest of the industry.  It’s no Titanic in terms of its cultural impact, and its sequels won’t likely be the must-see technical showcase it was.

 

Calling $3B the floor is unrealistic in my mind.  Maybe for the cumulative WW gross of two of the sequels. 

[NCsoft]

1 hour ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I’m not. I just don’t think the appeal will be as strong as the first one. I don’t see it doing more than $400M in China either.

I don't see under 800M in China unless a world war is happening.

[Brainbug]

It will be so hilarious when Avatar 2 fails to top 2 Billion. People would call it a disappointment for only beeing like the 4th or 5th biggest movie ever.

Edited December 17, 2017 by Brainbug

[a2k]

18 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Starting to wonder if Pitch Perfect 3 can miss $100M DOM

Even though Jumanji will be big and win the non-SW bo, I think we are under-estimating PP3. Young, single women, college, musical comedy is gonna get a big audience. 

 

shameless plug: 

 

 

 

 

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Even though Jumanji will be big and win the non-SW bo, I think we are under-estimating PP3. Young, single women, college, musical comedy is gonna get a big audience. 

 

shameless plug: 

 

 

 

 

There’s Showman too though.

[filmlover]

I've been thinking that Pitch Perfect 3 would play out similarly to The Hangover 3 this whole time. Sequels with an overall vibe of "one sequel too many" surrounding them.

 

My predictions for next week:

 

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle: $54M (6-day)

Pitch Perfect 3: $30M (4-day)

The Greatest Showman: $24M (6-day)

Downsizing: $10M (4-day)

Father Figures: $6M (4-day)

 

No idea about All the Money in the World yet.

[Ezen Baklattan]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Coco had a higher PTA than Ferdinand over the holidays - even now they’re not too far apart, and with Coco inevitably losing a lot of screens next week, it’ll probably play like Moana and Tangled, making some bank in a smaller screen.

[Brainbug]

A generel question as im not familiar with US holidays: Is the first week of January free for kids/workers? Because if not, TLJ would have only one week of holiday weekdays...which doesnt seem right.

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

A generel question as im not familiar with US holidays: Is the first week of January free for kids/workers? Because if not, TLJ would have only one week of holiday weekdays...which doesnt seem right.

Most kids are already off this week. At least that is how it works here.

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, Brainbug said:

A generel question as im not familiar with US holidays: Is the first week of January free for kids/workers? Because if not, TLJ would have only one week of holiday weekdays...which doesnt seem right.

Depends...when you get a Monday Xmas and NY's, some schools take off this early (mine) and start back Jan 2...some go through Dec 22, but then wait to go back til Jan 8...and some go through Dec 22 and go back Jan 2, b/c they are hardcore...

 

Colleges will all be out the whole time...and most employees start their vacations sometime between this weekend and next, but tend to go back Jan 2 or 3...

[baumer]

Second showing of TLJ 

955am

Imax

90% full

Wtf

Lol

[baumer]

Avatar will do 2 Billion. Easily.

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

A generel question as im not familiar with US holidays: Is the first week of January free for kids/workers? Because if not, TLJ would have only one week of holiday weekdays...which doesnt seem right.

Most schools are already off and go back on either January 3rd or 4th.

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

Second showing of TLJ 

955am

Imax

90% full

Wtf

Lol

 

I hope you like it better the second time around

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Most schools are already off and go back on either January 3rd or 4th.

I wouldn't say most - New England schools tend to be the late leavers/late go backers...and NJ schools (where I have nephews) are doing the really short holiday thing...it's probably something like 33% off now, and 33% off after Jan 2...and 100% off Dec 22-Jan 1:)...

Edited December 17, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[Ethan Hunt]

10 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Most kids are already off this week. 

Errrrre. Nope

[Fancyarcher]

Yeah Avatar 2 will probably make nearly 2 billion or something. I don't wanna underestimate Cameron anyway. Even if it underperforms domestically, I think it could break records in China alone. 

Edited December 17, 2017 by Fancyarcher

[Ethan Hunt]

Avatar 2 will do a big number that's not as big as Avatar

[SchumacherFTW]

Avatar 2 feels like a 1.5bn movie to me. Exchange rates in 09 were insane don't forget.