Jump to content

FlashMaster659

Monday #s - TLJ 21.6M

Recommended Posts

12 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Lol, it’s not missing 600. If it came out the same week as TFA and did 20m today, then we could talk about missing 600. 

 

13 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I can’t see under a 3x multiple.

We have to wait and see

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites





Just now, MovieMan89 said:

3.1-3.15x is what I’m guessing. Below 3x is practically impossible given its release date.

I agree...and then I think that we've had practically impossible numbers (in both directions) over and over the last few years, so I think of that saying "don't count your chickens before they hatch":)...or at least don't count them without seeing a few more days of box office:)...

Link to comment
Share on other sites



9 minutes ago, Brainiac5 said:

We have to wait and see

 

Thing is 560m is not under 3.0 multiplier it is under 2.55x

 

Star wars is one of the leggiest franchise ever (rewatch, people fearing the fans, people waiting for hole family event), with the release date make a under 2.55 multiplier extremely unlikely.

 

If you look here:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/month/?mo=12&sort=percent&order=DESC&p=.htm

 

No big december openner ever went below 2.6 multiplier, even movie like Exodus Gods and Kings or Point break and it is rare to not reach 3.0.

 

Hard to imagine the worst case scenario being lower than Golden Compass, Point Break or Exodus, I think that realistically the worst reasonable scenario is those 2.75 type of hold, over 600m dbo.

Edited by Barnack
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

3.1-3.15x is what I’m guessing. 

 

That would be about 17-18% drop from TFA's 3.78 multiplier. Very similar to TDKR's drop to 2.78 multiplier from TDK's 3.36 multiplier. Ultron's 2.4 multiplier was a 20% drop from Avengers' 3.0 multiplier. Ultron and TDKR both received the "A" Cinemascore too. 

 

Obviously way too early to expect this kind of result. I am still thinking more along the lines of Rogue One's 3.43 multiplier. But we will see how it goes and should be interesting to watch. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



1 minute ago, junkshop36 said:

 

So is 3.1-3.15x

 

Sorry but that’s not happening. 

 

3.3-3.4, sure but it isn’t going lower than that. 

That’s where people are being presumptuous. It very well could go lower than that with how this first Monday hold is already looking.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

That would be about 17-18% drop from TFA's 3.78 multiplier. Very similar to TDKR's drop to 2.78 multiplier from TDK's 3.36 multiplier. Ultron's 2.4 multiplier was a 20% drop from Avengers' 3.0 multiplier. Ultron and TDKR both received the "A" Cinemascore too. 

 

Obviously way too early to expect this kind of result. I am still thinking more along the lines of Rogue One's 3.43 multiplier. But we will see how it goes and should be interesting to watch. 

Anything below ROs multi and I think we have to agree WOM was nowhere near as universal as TFA

Link to comment
Share on other sites



4 minutes ago, junkshop36 said:

 

So is 3.1-3.15x

 

Sorry but that’s not happening. 

 

3.3-3.4, sure but it isn’t going lower than that. 

 

In relative terms, a 17-18% drop on the multiplier from the previous episode is not that shocking. We had two mega sequels to extremely well received cultural phenoms that dropped by amounts similar to that. They both had "A" Cinemascore and still the multiplier dropped by 17-20% for TDKR/Ultron. 

 

The Christmas/New Year holidays are a nice boost for sure. TFA also benefited from holiday boost. So we have to see how it goes. Right now I'm thinking legs similar to Rogue One's 3.43 multiplier. MovieMan89's prediction is not outrageous though considering what happened with some other big sequels recently. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites



12 minutes ago, MrPink said:

Clocking past 20 feels like a rather broad definition right now that feels useless to speculate until its narrowed down.

This. Am I the only one who's looking at that going "Yeah, and..."? I realize a $20M Monday is great news whatever the circumstances but let's call a spade a spade: it's pretty much expected. We have to wait and see where in the 20's this will land.

Edited by JB33
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

That’s where people are being presumptuous. It very well could go lower than that with how this first Monday hold is already looking.

 

Waaaay less people are off this Monday than we’re for both TFA and RO due to where those movies opened on the calendar. Most schools won’t start getting out until later this week. My wife’s last day is Friday. Starting next week the holidays fully kick in. It’ll cruise along just fine after that. 

 

Until proven otherwise im sticking with a multi the same as RO at the least. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Rogue One was pretty much flat (-0.1%) on the first Tuesday last year. I think Last Jedi probably increases at least 10% on Tuesday. Looks like all of the big openers this year jumped at least 20%. This one has at least a small holiday boost on Monday, so that might hurt the Tuesday jump a little bit. But still should do very well tomorrow.

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



11 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

In relative terms, a 17-18% drop on the multiplier from the previous episode is not that shocking. We had two mega sequels to extremely well received cultural phenoms that dropped by amounts similar to that. They both had "A" Cinemascore and still the multiplier dropped by 17-20% for TDKR/Ultron. 

 

The Christmas/New Year holidays are a nice boost for sure. TFA also benefited from holiday boost. So we have to see how it goes. Right now I'm thinking legs similar to Rogue One's 3.43 multiplier. MovieMan89's prediction is not outrageous though considering what happened with some other big sequels recently. 

Only big sequels that had mixed reception compared to their predecessor though. That’s the only way TLJ will have that multi. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites





Am I alone in thinking NEXT Tuesday could be the perfect storm for TLJ? It's Boxing Day and cheap Tuesday! That mix is perfect for huge box office numbers.

Edited by JB33
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites







  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.