redfirebird2008 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 (edited) 7 minutes ago, junkshop36 said: Waaaay less people are off this Monday than we’re for both TFA and RO due to where those movies opened on the calendar. Most schools won’t start getting out until later this week. My wife’s last day is Friday. Starting next week the holidays fully kick in. It’ll cruise along just fine after that. Until proven otherwise im sticking with a multi the same as RO at the least. Rogue One came out a single day later than Last Jedi. It's not that big of a difference between them and that's exactly why a number of us were saying it would not hold as well Sunday or Monday as TFA. Force Awakens was playing in a very different sandbox with the 21st on a Monday. Most people get off work or school around the 21st. Rogue One should be a pretty decent guide for the daily percentages. If it can match that movie's multiplier performance, we've got a movie that will finish above Avatar on the domestic chart. Edited December 19, 2017 by redfirebird2008 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan Hunt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 (edited) 6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: Only big sequels that had mixed reception compared to their predecessor though. That’s the only way TLJ will have that multi. ... doesn't it seem like TLJ has mixed reception compared to it's predecessor? Edited December 19, 2017 by Ethan Hunt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Ethan Hunt said: ... doesn't it seem like TLJ has mixed reception compared to it's predecessor? I think so, hence why I’m predicting 3.1-3.15. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan Hunt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said: I think so, hence why I’m predicting 3.1-3.15. Personally I dont quote see it that low. think it'll do about 715M (3.25x) or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB33 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said: Rogue One came out a single day later than Last Jedi. It's not that big of a difference between them and that's exactly why a number of us were saying it would not hold as well Sunday or Monday as TFA. Force Awakens was playing in a very different sandbox with the 21st on a Monday. Most people get off work or school around the 21st. Rogue One should be a pretty decent guide for the daily percentages. If it can match that movie's multiplier performance, we've got a movie that will finish above Avatar on the domestic chart. Clearly it does make a big difference if only 31% of schools are out today compared to 48% last year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 4x multiplier, this is star wars afterall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB33 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, IronJimbo said: 4x multiplier, this is star wars afterall I expect a 10x multi for Avatar 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Schools are still in here all week. They weren't in 2015. But they are off right until the 8th of January. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, JB33 said: Clearly it does make a big difference if only 31% of schools are out today compared to 48% last year. The other post was lumping in Rogue One with TFA, which is not really the right approach. Rogue One dropped over 50% on Monday and it appears Last Jedi will too. TFA dropped under 34%. Rogue One is a lot more similar to Last Jedi if you are looking at these daily drops and the calendar dates. TFA really had the perfect setup on the calendar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB33 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Odds on Rth showing up tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 15 minutes ago, JB33 said: Am I alone in thinking NEXT Tuesday could be the perfect storm for TLJ? It's Boxing Day and cheap Tuesday! That mix is perfect for huge box office numbers. Isn't AMC ending cheap Tuesday for the year tomorrow? So, it's cheap Tuesday at a lot of places, but one less chain to make it even higher... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Not putting much stock in these super early Monday numbers. Something around $25M today seems most likely to me. Also, do I think WOM is more mixed for Last Jedi than it was for Force Awakens. Yes. But, it's certainly overall a positive response. The WOM and zeitgeist for TFA was incredible. Was never going to match that. What was Rogue One's multi? I'd expect something just over/under that for Last Jedi. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hw64 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, JohnnyGossamer said: Not putting much stock in these super early Monday numbers. Something around $25M today seems most likely to me. Also, do I think WOM is more mixed for Last Jedi than it was for Force Awakens. Yes. But, it's certainly overall a positive response. The WOM and zeitgeist for TFA was incredible. Was never going to match that. What was Rogue One's multi? I'd expect something just over/under that for Last Jedi. 3.43, which would take TLJ to $755m. I'd say a bit under that, maybe close to 3.3 for somewhere around $725m. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said: Not putting much stock in these super early Monday numbers. Something around $25M today seems most likely to me. Also, do I think WOM is more mixed for Last Jedi than it was for Force Awakens. Yes. But, it's certainly overall a positive response. The WOM and zeitgeist for TFA was incredible. Was never going to match that. What was Rogue One's multi? I'd expect something just over/under that for Last Jedi. 3.43 multiplier for Rogue One. That would put Last Jedi within very easy striking distance to jump Avatar for #2 on the domestic chart. If it can pull a legit 3.43, Disney would only need a couple million bucks of fudge to get past Avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanLB Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 14 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said: Schools are still in here all week. They weren't in 2015. But they are off right until the 8th of January. Yeah a lot of people are forgetting the first week of January should be a lot less sucky than usual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedieb Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Ugh, XMas on a Monday blows! I have to work until Wednesday and my kids have school until Thursday because of a snow day we had last week. I think many districts across the country are in the same boat. Schools will be in session until the middle of the week. I may sneak over tomorrow after work, but the break made seeing TFA on weekdays so much easier 2 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, jedieb said: Ugh, XMas on a Monday blows! I have to work until Wednesday and my kids have school until Thursday because of a snow day we had last week. I think many districts across the country are in the same boat. Schools will be in session until the middle of the week. I may sneak over tomorrow after work, but the break made seeing TFA on weekdays so much easier 2 years ago. What is your work schedule next week? My company is giving us Monday/Tuesday off. I am taking vacation for the other 3 days. 10 days off from 23rd to 1st and only using 3 vacation days. Pretty nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 3.43 for R1, eh? I'd probably revise my thinking to a total a little under that. But, I see no way that this finishes under $700M+ DOM. Thinking $725M DOM is the floor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB33 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, JohnnyGossamer said: 3.43 for R1, eh? I'd probably revise my thinking to a total a little under that. But, I see no way that this finishes under $700M+ DOM. Thinking $725M DOM is the floor. No chance of a 3.5x multi for $770M? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattW Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 (edited) 21-24 for Monday is what I was guessing when I thought Sunday was going to be in the 51-54 range. I think 21 indicates legs on par with Rogue One, at least as much as the first Monday can indicate something like that. Edited December 19, 2017 by MattW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
