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Wednesday #s: TLJ 16.9M, Jumanji 7.2M, Greatest Snowman 2.45M

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grey ghost Global Phenomenon

grey ghost

Posted
Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

they did some good stuff, but execution was sloppy, and some of that comedy with Luke on island was just bad or just plain insulting

 

I'm sure there will be a great fan edit

I can't remember being offended or much comedy at all.

 

I guess the comedy was forgettable but what stuck with me was the reasons Luke did the things he did.

 

That was the really compelling stuff and overshadowed any Porg or seacow stuff.

 

(though most agree Porgs are fucking awesome)

 

 

Edited by grey ghost
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Barnack Global Phenomenon

Barnack

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15 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

I'm curious about that myself. Reviews are good, but I think it could get lost in the Christmas shuffle. I don't think the controversy and last minute casting change will really help it all that much. 

The only help of the casting change is not loosing people that will not have wanted to see a Spacey movie and make some junket more pleasant for the cast if they do it, but otherwise I agree, prevent some lost but I do not expect to be much if any gain versus nothing would have happened.

 

It could certainly get lost, but it has what it take to work (very fast to explain high concept, big name director, nearly 90% on RT)

 

Recent comparable:

 

http://www.imdb.com/search/title?genres=biography,crime&num_votes=2010,&release_date=2010,&sort=boxoffice_gross_us,desc&title_type=feature

 

Black mass: 62.5m

american made:  51m

J edgar: 37m

The infiltrator: 17m

 

Hard to see doing as well as Black Mass/American Made, but maybe between Infiltrator and J Edgar (middle ground is 27m, Patriot Day made 31m last December release for Walhberg, The Gambler 33m, so 25-35m is probably a good range to expect), not being a world studio release I would not expect a too good intl ratio too.

 

 

Edited by Barnack
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BK007 Box Office Gold

BK007

Posted
Posted

Just wanted to say that sometimes the days just don't fall kindly and there is no making up the difference.

 

I didn't really do a great analysis, but compared Eragon in 2006 Vs Alvin & the Chipmunks 2016, and a small drop early on is obviously a lot better because all the forthcoming numbers are higher.

 

That week of extra holidays that apparently extend to the 8th, don't help Eragon much more than it hurt A&TC that kids were going back to school. (I'm assuming here that the school holidays were the same this year due to the dates).

 

I'll take a look after the holidays to see how Coco fared against Tangled/Moana but I think this (and there are other holiday weekends too) will turn out to be just unfavourable dates, and that does make a difference, whether you are Star Wars or a smaller movie.

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Fancyarcher Global Phenomenon

Fancyarcher

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Barnack said:

The only help of the casting change is not loosing people that will not have wanted to see a Spacey movie and make some junket more pleasant for the cast if they do it, but otherwise I agree, prevent some lost but I do not expect to be much if any gain versus nothing would have happened.

 

It could certainly get lost, but it has what it take to work (very fast to explain high concept, big name director, nearly 90% on RT)

 

Recent comparable:

 

http://www.imdb.com/search/title?genres=biography,crime&num_votes=2010,&release_date=2010,&sort=boxoffice_gross_us,desc&title_type=feature

 

Black mass: 62.5m

american made:  51m

J edgar: 37m

The infiltrator: 17m

 

Hard to see doing as well as Black Mass/American Made, but maybe between Infiltrator and J Edgar (middle ground is 27m, Patriot Day made 31m last December release for Walhberg, The Gambler 33m, so 25-35m is probably a good range to expect), not being a world studio release I would not expect a too good intl ratio too.

 

 

ATMITW is being released in 2000 theaters on Monday apparently. While Sony appears to be giving it a clear Oscar push, I'd say a final gross around 30m is more then likely. Some films are gonna fare worse then others around this season.

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Ryan Reynolds Blockbuster

Ryan Reynolds

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

I can't remember being offended or much comedy at all.

 

I guess the comedy was forgettable but what stuck with me was the reasons Luke did the things he did.

 

The was the really compelling stuff and overshadowed any Porg or seacow stuff.

 

(though most agree Porgs are fucking awesome)

 

 

comedy of porgs was fine, but actual resolution of cliffhanger set the tones, love it or hate it. i won't say more.

 

there is a lot to love, they went against fan exceptions, but should have struck a balance

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Fancyarcher Global Phenomenon

Fancyarcher

Posted
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19 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

I can't remember being offended or much comedy at all.

 

I guess the comedy was forgettable but what stuck with me was the reasons Luke did the things he did.

 

The was the really compelling stuff and overshadowed any Porg or seacow stuff.

 

(though most agree Porgs are fucking awesome)

 

 

I actually thought most of the humor worked too. Anything to do with the porgs got a big laugh from my theater, and thankfully the humor didn't overshadow the plot either. 

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Lancelot Gold Sleeper Hit

Lancelot Gold

Posted
Posted

http://deadline.com/2017/12/last-jedi-dwayne-johnson-jumanji-zac-efron-greatest-showman-box-office-1202230784/

 

Disney/Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi is eyeing between $16.8M-$17M today, which puts its Friday-Wednesday run at $278.8M. Industry estimates believe that over the Wednesday through Christmas run that The Last Jedi will mint $110M which will take its running domestic total to $371.8M.

 

Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle is coming in around $7.4M today and the industry continues to remain bullish that the Jake Kasdan film will get into the high $50Ms, with a shot at $60M by the end of Christmas Day. After dinner, that’s when everyone is expected to head to the cinema. Sneaks for Jumanji for Amazon Prime members grossed $2M on December 8, and that cash will be rolled into its total cume. CinemaScore audiences gave the Jumanji reboot an A- tonight.

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dxmatrixdt Summer Tentpole

dxmatrixdt

Posted
Posted (edited)

if you brought it down to average ticket prices for Jumanji versus TLJ and projected an average number of tickets sold per theater, it might look something like 200-220 for Jumanji and 420-450 for TLJ.  (according to this most recent Deadline update).

 

** take this simple 2 to 1 ratio from above ^^ and play with it through the next few weeks!!!  I am sure you will find it go up to 2.1 to 0.9 ratio, and then something else!

 

http://deadline.com/2017/12/last-jedi-dwayne-johnson-jumanji-zac-efron-greatest-showman-box-office-1202230784/

Edited by Matrix4You
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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, lancelot123 said:

http://deadline.com/2017/12/last-jedi-dwayne-johnson-jumanji-zac-efron-greatest-showman-box-office-1202230784/

 

Disney/Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi is eyeing between $16.8M-$17M today, which puts its Friday-Wednesday run at $278.8M. Industry estimates believe that over the Wednesday through Christmas run that The Last Jedi will mint $110M which will take its running domestic total to $371.8M.

 

Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle is coming in around $7.4M today and the industry continues to remain bullish that the Jake Kasdan film will get into the high $50Ms, with a shot at $60M by the end of Christmas Day. After dinner, that’s when everyone is expected to head to the cinema. Sneaks for Jumanji for Amazon Prime members grossed $2M on December 8, and that cash will be rolled into its total cume. CinemaScore audiences gave the Jumanji reboot an A- tonight.

Hmmm, those Wed-Christmas 6 day numbers seem a bit off in comparison for TLJ and Jumanji.   

 

Am I calculating this right?

 

TLJ is 2.27 -2.3 bigger on Wed but projected to only do about 1.85 -2 x better over the 6 day? 

 

For TLJ to just do $110m over 6 days it would only do about $60m or even less over the w/e.   Hmmm - looking again at Friday jumps and Christmas Eve it just might do $60m... but only if Thursday doesn't go up and it should...  <_<

Edited by TalismanRing
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Lancelot Gold Sleeper Hit

Lancelot Gold

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Hmmm, those Wed-Christmas 6 day numbers seem a bit off in comparison for TLJ and Jumanji.   

 

Am I calculating this right?

 

TLJ is 2.27 -2.3 bigger on Wed but projected to only do about 1.85 -2 x better over the 6 day? 

 

For TLJ to just do $110m over 6 days it would only do about $60m or even less over the w/e. 

Yeah, too low for sure. 110m puts it under R1 that did 113m from the 20th through the 25th. Not apples to apples, but still.

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Alli Blockbuster

Alli

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

:gold:

 

Or you could go  for the Will Smith variant -  Suicide Squad, Bright & After Earth

 

lol smith is having a hard time finding the right projects lately. let's not forget the masterpiece Collateral Beauty

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