Wednesday #s: TLJ 16.9M, Jumanji 7.2M, Greatest Snowman 2.45M

[CenterMeOnSam]

4 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Well technically the main demographics is over 30's so he was right, they are not the main demo.

 

Do their ticket sales count any less for the box office? That's my main point.

 

With 42 million students still in school, it is unlikely you get as many families going out to see a movie on a school night, or high school students going out by themselves. 

[JB33]

Yeah, I'll change my tune if there is really that big a difference from last year in terms of how many schools are still in session. 17% of schools off compared to 38% just last year? That's a significant difference. I guess the proof will be in just how much TLJ jumps next year. They should be bigger than RO's jumps.

Edited December 21, 2017 by JB33

[CJohn]

It is a crappy calendar for Christmas releases this year because of Christmas being next week.

[LinksterAC]

6 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

  mentioned this a few days ago as well. Schools here in Canada are in until the 22nd but have the first week of January off. 

 

In 2015 it was the opposite.

Same story in SoCal.  Most schools are still in session.  The holiday movie season hasn't really started yet, folks.  We'll have a much clearer picture of TLJ's trajectory this weekend.

[WrathOfHan]

How the hell does The Greatest Showman keep dropping?  

[Brainbug]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

How the hell does The Greatest Showman keep dropping?  

 

The Greatest Flopman.

[TwoMisfits]

Well, in better news, I have my The Star tickets tonight for $2/each...so I'll let you know if it was sweet enough to make your holidays more enjoyable and to be worth $2 each:)...

 

Might add Coco on for Christmas Eve at $2/each:)...

[La Binoche]

I'm stunned that Murder On The Orient Express is doing so well. Already over $300M. It's a terrible movie. But I guess its success is a good thing given that it's a big budget studio movie aimed at adults. And it's nice to see Michelle Pfeiffer back. 

[harry713]

32 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Lamest excuse ever.

It's not an excuse, it's a reality. 

[XO21]

7 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

How the hell does The Greatest Showman keep dropping?  

Awful movie. 

 

The low 20s prediction will drop under $20m imo..

 

 

Edited December 21, 2017 by XO21

[Valonqar]

2 hours ago, JB33 said:

$16.8M-$17M? Yet another drop lagging behind RO. 

Kids can't get out of school soon enough. That will save TLJ's legs. 

 

Edited December 21, 2017 by Valonqar

[grim22]

 

[MrGlass2]

17 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Well technically the main demographics is over 30's so he was right, they are not the main demo.

That is an interesting point, what is the demo breakdown for TLJ so far?

[redfirebird2008]

8 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

Same story in SoCal.  Most schools are still in session.  The holiday movie season hasn't really started yet, folks.  We'll have a much clearer picture of TLJ's trajectory this weekend.

 

Not even sure the 2nd weekend will help us much. I think Monday the 25th through Monday the 1st will do the trick. If it's running 30% ahead of Rogue One for dailies during that time period, it should be able to reach $700m.

[hw64]

Deadline yesterday:

Quote

Yesterday [Tuesday], ComScore reported 17% K-12 schools out. Today [Wednesday] that figure jumps to 24%, then 39% on Thursday and 61% on Friday.

Deadline today:

Quote

What’s been slowing down numbers this week is that there aren’t as many kids out of school as a year ago, read 17% K-12 were off on Wednesday versus 38% last year.

So which is it?

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, hw64 said:

Deadline yesterday:

Deadline today:

So which is it?

Honestly, Deadline had 31% of students off Monday before that changed...seems the numbers keep changing as the movie keeps not hitting what would be good holds off OW...might help if they actually nailed down the student info once and for all and didn't change it daily...

[a2k]

18 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

How the hell does The Greatest Showman keep dropping?  

All those fans of Hugh Jackman's singing front-loaded it.

[LinksterAC]

7 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Not even sure the 2nd weekend will help us much. I think Monday the 25th through Monday the 1st will do the trick. If it's running 30% ahead of Rogue One for dailies during that time period, it should be able to reach $700m.

True, but the second weekend will tell a lot.  If it has a strong hold weekend-to-weekend (50%-ish drop) and a soft Saturday to Sunday drop, it'll point to really strong holiday legs.  

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

Honestly, Deadline had 31% of students off Monday before that changed...seems the numbers keep changing as the movie keeps not hitting what would be good holds off OW...might help if they actually nailed down the student info once and for all and didn't change it daily...

 

I can't wait until Monday so we won't have to read that stuff every day, haha. There will be zero excuses next week. The numbers will be in full holiday boost mode no matter how anyone tries to spin it. It needs to run around 46% ahead of Rogue One the rest of the way to beat Avatar's domestic gross (which is what everyone was hoping before release and after the 220 opening).

[a2k]

10 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Not even sure the 2nd weekend will help us much. I think Monday the 25th through Monday the 1st will do the trick. If it's running 30% ahead of Rogue One for dailies during that time period, it should be able to reach $700m.

Yeah agree. The calendar is repeating after 11 years. New Year's 4-day weekend is gonna surprise everyone bigly if 2006 is any indication.