Wednesday #s: TLJ 16.9M, Jumanji 7.2M, Greatest Snowman 2.45M

[La Binoche]

I liked The Phantom Thread. Finally something I liked. But is there room for one more prestige pic at the box office?

[Eric Atreides]

56 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Every time I think this site and the posters might be good, most of you disappoint me.  

 

 

I gave you a "wtf" so that the gang's all there.  

[Lancelot Gold]

I don't want to name the horrible movie (a few fit and you can fill in the blank yourself), but this feels like a bizarro week.

 

Then: Bad movie, hated by critics and general audience, fans/trolls insisting like crazy that it's the best movie ever and that it will have great legs.

 

Now: Good movie, loved by critics and general audience, haters/trolls insisting like crazy that it's the worst movie ever and that it will have horrible legs.

 

On a side note, saw TLJ again tonight. Amazing the first time, even better the second. I missed so much the first time due to being overwhelmed. Big Imax, 7 story screen biggest in the state, 550 seat theater, about 50% full hard to judge. Made sure I was out of the theater first. Not a scientific study, but I stood there to listen to people's conversations as they exited. Not one bad thing mentioned just pure love and admiration for the movie.

[LinksterAC]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I'm not expecting same legs as TFA, that would be 88% of TFA's gross. If it came in more around that 80% mark, then I might agree not necessarily WOM. But it's more likely to be in the 70-75% range with how things look so far. WOM is a factor in that case.

Says who?

[MovieMan89]

Just now, LinksterAC said:

Says who?

Logic? Going from 88% of its predecessor OW to 70-75% of its total clearly implicates worse WOM. 

[The Panda]

59 minutes ago, Noodlebug said:

Does anyone think this is shaping up to be the modern day TPM in terms of reception?

No.

[LinksterAC]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

Logic? Going from 88% of its predecessor OW to 70-75% of its total clearly implicates worse WOM. 

By virtue of the numbers alone?  I don't think that's logical at all.

[Noodlebug]

1 minute ago, lancelot123 said:

I don't want to name the horrible movie (a few fit and you can fill in the blank yourself), but this feels like a bizarro week.

 

Then: Bad movie, hated by critics and general audience, fans/trolls insisting like crazy that it's the best movie ever and that it will have great legs.

 

Now: Good movie, loved by critics and general audience, haters/trolls insisting like crazy that it's the worst movie ever and that it will have horrible legs.

 

On a side note, saw TLJ again tonight. Amazing the first time, even better the second. I missed so much the first time due to being overwhelmed. Big Imax, 7 story screen biggest in the state, 550 seat theater, about 50% full hard to judge. Made sure I was out of the theater first. Not a scientific study, but I stood there to listen to people's conversations as they exited. Not one bad thing mentioned just pure love and admiration for the movie.

This might be a slightly bigger case of what happened with TFA. Core fanbase divided over it, but GA loves it. Although this time around, the small backlash might be a bit bigger this time, and combined with this having less hype than the once in a generation TFA, these numbers seem about right.

[narniadis]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Logic? Going from 88% of its predecessor OW to 70-75% of its total clearly implicates worse WOM. 

You could also argue that it implicates front loading 😉. Just saying that we are never going to reach a consensus on what is or isn't an effect of word of mouth. If you didn't expect it to top 750 to begin with (like myself only 700m) than it is doing exactly as expected(ish) so far. 

 

You are trying to compare its run with a once in a generation type run that it could never live up to regardless of time of year or reception. Getting 75% of the total in the end is great for such a huge gross when even films in play now like Bad Moms and daddys home are going to struggle to 70% retention. 

 

But whatever this horse I am sure will be beat into oblivion before many days pass. 

[LinksterAC]

With regard to TLJ, my anecdotal experience is as follows:

 

Divisive when I discuss it on the internet, universally loved by everyone I speak to in person about it.

 

I didn't like it the first time I saw it.  But that second viewing was pure bliss.

[Wrath]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Logic? Going from 88% of its predecessor OW to 70-75% of its total clearly implicates worse WOM. 

Lower multiple on sequel suggests worse WOM than on original movie? Seems legit.

 

Its why RotS had a worse multiplier than AotC, right? WOM was worse?

Edited December 21, 2017 by Wrath

[Lancelot Gold]

2 minutes ago, Noodlebug said:

This might be a slightly bigger case of what happened with TFA. Core fanbase divided over it, but GA loves it. Although this time around, the small backlash might be a bit bigger this time, and combined with this having less hype than the once in a generation TFA, these numbers seem about right.

My favorite responses to both TFA and TLJ, they both had plenty, are the "This movie ruined my childhood!" I laugh like crazy and wonder how horrible their childhood was for a movie to be able to ruin it.

[MovieMan89]

It's down now to 7.8 on IMDB with only 130k votes. TPM is 6.5, ROTS is 7.6. Probably ends up right in the middle of them given it still has 5-6x more votes to get. All the other non-prequels are comfortably above 8.0.

[TigerPaw]

2 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

 

 

I didn't like it the first time I saw it.  But that second viewing was pure bliss.

2nd viewing almost absolutely makes the viewing better. I mean you know what to expect, and already know about the plot twists and subconsciously wants to give it a 2nd chance.

 

 

[Rman823]

4 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

With regard to TLJ, my anecdotal experience is as follows:

 

Divisive when I discuss it on the internet, universally loved by everyone I speak to in person about it.

 

I didn't like it the first time I saw it.  But that second viewing was pure bliss.

Yep. Outside the internet everyone I talk to seems to enjoy it. TFA was similar. 

[DAJK]

Fuck that problem on our till is really hurting Jumanji for the late show. Won't even reach 9M, probably closer to 8.2-8.4M here for tonight

[LinksterAC]

3 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

2nd viewing almost absolutely makes the viewing better. I mean you know what to expect, and already know about the plot twists and subconsciously wants to give it a 2nd chance.

 

 

For me, a second viewing of a bad movie has never made it better.  It usually makes it worse.

[redfirebird2008]

7 minutes ago, narniadis said:

You could also argue that it implicates front loading 😉. Just saying that we are never going to reach a consensus on what is or isn't an effect of word of mouth. If you didn't expect it to top 750 to begin with (like myself only 700m) than it is doing exactly as expected(ish) so far. 

 

You are trying to compare its run with a once in a generation type run that it could never live up to regardless of time of year or reception. Getting 75% of the total in the end is great for such a huge gross when even films in play now like Bad Moms and daddys home are going to struggle to 70% retention. 

 

But whatever this horse I am sure will be beat into oblivion before many days pass. 

 

It's very difficult...Spidey 2 is the only one I can think of that really held on very strong compared to previous movie. Total gross dropped only 7.5% from a phenom level predecessor. 

[MovieMan89]

9 minutes ago, narniadis said:

You could also argue that it implicates front loading 😉. Just saying that we are never going to reach a consensus on what is or isn't an effect of word of mouth. If you didn't expect it to top 750 to begin with (like myself only 700m) than it is doing exactly as expected(ish) so far. 

 

You are trying to compare its run with a once in a generation type run that it could never live up to regardless of time of year or reception. Getting 75% of the total in the end is great for such a huge gross when even films in play now like Bad Moms and daddys home are going to struggle to 70% retention. 

 

But whatever this horse I am sure will be beat into oblivion before many days pass. 

That's some of it yes, but not enough to justify that kind of OW to total retention difference. Movies like DH2 and Bad Moms Christmas struggled to 70% retention because their OWs were around that range. In the case of both their OW retention and total retention will end up very similar. If TLJ drops nearly 20% retention from OW to total, then yes it is WOM too. 

[EmpireCity]

Sigh.