Apollo2xx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 STOP OVERPREDICTING INFINITY WAR! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Guy Posted December 26, 2017 Author Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 hour ago, Apollo2xx said: STOP OVERPREDICTING INFINITY WAR! k *proceeds to leave prediction as is* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Guy Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 Predictions lock in about 35 minutes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Guy Posted January 5, 2018 Author Share Posted January 5, 2018 On 12/21/2017 at 9:41 AM, That One Guy said: Insidious: The Last Key - 12/26 19 minutes ago, That One Guy said: Following Woman in Black 2: 1.98M 8.24M (10.22M OD) 6.49M 3.1M 19.81M OW Looks like I was too far off on this. Let's wait for actuals though and hope it only gets a 6x from its preview numbers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FantasticBeasts Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 On 5/1/2018 at 6:02 PM, That One Guy said: Looks like I was too far off on this. Let's wait for actuals though and hope it only gets a 6x from its preview numbers Looks like x2 your prediction and the OW will be close to the total. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Guy Posted January 6, 2018 Author Share Posted January 6, 2018 Oh well, you can’t get em all right 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Batson Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 On 1/5/2018 at 11:02 AM, That One Guy said: Looks like I was too far off on this. Let's wait for actuals though and hope it only gets a 6x from its preview numbers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Guy Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 (edited) Insidious: The Last Key Prediction: $12M OW/$26M DOM Actual: $29M OW/$58M-$70M DOM Result: I fucked up This was a last minute adjustment as I got closer to release and downgraded my prediction from what it originally was. I thought the marketing was weak (as in, there was barely any marketing) and that the film would fall far under the previous Insidious films. Instead, it went above pretty much everyone's expectations and got to nearly a $30M OW and grossed more than the previous installment on its OW. It's also on the upper end of other first weekend of January horror installments, being the biggest OW since The Devil Inside. Lin Shaye's drawing power at work here, clearly. Edited January 9, 2018 by That One Guy 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Wow, not looking great! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Why do you and Han do this to yourselves? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Guy Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, filmlover said: Why do you and Han do this to yourselves? At least this means I own up to my predictions. I'm sure Han didn't want people bumping his Mummy prediction when it was wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Batson Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, filmlover said: Why do you and Han do this to yourselves? Because it's fun and interesting to compare and contrast preconceptions and postconceptions of box office grosses. I would have done the same, but Han and TOG are better at it (I'm clueless on OW/legs), and I already am doing a list of my own with the "Wins & Fails" thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Guy Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 The Commuter Prediction: $19M OW/$51M DOM Actual: $13.7M OW/$32.88M-$42.47M DOM Result: It could've been worse I originally had this being much higher, so at least I downgraded my prediction a bit so that it wouldn't be completely embarrassing. Still, barring The Post, it ended up being the highest grossing new opener for this weekend. Who could've seen that coming? Paddington 2 Prediction: $22M OW/$100M DOM Actual: $10.9M OW/$38.15M-$65.4M DOM (depending on how strong legs are) Result: Go fuck yourself America Trash. Proud Mary Prediction: $15M OW/$38M DOM Actual: $9.925M OW/$21.835M-$29.775M DOM Result: Not fantastic, but I was lower than most initial predictions I remember seeing a lot of predictions for this film having it breaking out significantly, and I was super confused. I thought the film wouldn't make nearly as much as some said. I figured it could do decent business on OW and have okay legs and finish with a fine total given that it likely had a small budget. I was right that people were overpredicting it, but I didn't go low enough. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Guy Posted January 22, 2018 Author Share Posted January 22, 2018 12 Strong Prediction: $10M OW/$31M DOM Actual: $15.8M OW/$39.5M-$55.3M DOM Result: It could've been worse I thought this would go a bit lower than where it ended up being. Clearly I underestimated the audience that would come out for these "MURICAAAA FUCK YEAH" war movies. Den of Thieves Prediction: $7M OW/$18M DOM Actual: $15.2M OW/$33.44M-$47.12M DOM Result: Approximately zero people saw it even coming close to a $15M OW. Forever My Girl Prediction: $2M OW/$4.5M DOM Actual: $4.2M OW/$10.5M-$21M DOM Result: lol whoops who cares 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Guy Posted January 29, 2018 Author Share Posted January 29, 2018 Maze Runner: The Death Cure Prediction: $28M OW/$76M DOM Actual: $24M OW/$57.6M-$75.6M DOM Result: Not too bad Depending on how legs are, this isn't that bad of a prediction all things considered. I may have overshot it, but I at least didn't predict it to have a huge drop off like some people probably thought. I highly, highly doubt it gets to the high end on the domestic gross (that's the multi that the first Maze Runner got), but if it somehow does, then that'd be great. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Guy Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 (edited) Winchester Prediction: $9M OW/$23M DOM Actual: $9.3M OW/$19.53M-$26.04M DOM Result: Pretty damn spot on I nailed the OW prediction, so at this point it's just a matter on how good the legs for this are. It needs a 2.47x multi to achieve my domestic total, and considering grosses are deflated this weekend and it has a B- CinemaScore (indicating WOM isn't awful), then that's a completely doable goal. Edited February 6, 2018 by That One Guy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Guy Posted February 12, 2018 Author Share Posted February 12, 2018 Fifty Shades Freed Prediction: $35M OW/$83M DOM Actual: $38.5M OW/$77M-$96.25M DOM Result: Depends on how legs are The OW prediction was only off by about $3M or so, so I was pretty close on that. The domestic total's accuracy will depend on legs. It needs a 2.15x or so to achieve my prediction, which it could do given that it's likely to be more frontloaded Peter Rabbit Prediction: $24M OW/$78M DOM Actual: $25M OW/$72.5M-$102.5M DOM Result: Spot on OW, total will depend on legs I'm very proud of my OW prediction, since it only came in $1M ahead of it, but I think legs on this might be stronger than I initially thought. If it gets a 3.12x, then it'll hit my prediction right on the mark, but there's definitely a strong possibility that it goes above that. The 15:17 to Paris Prediction: $23M OW/$74M DOM Actual: $12.5M OW/$27.5M-$37.5M DOM Result: lmao nope 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCKillswitch123 Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 (edited) On 21/12/2017 at 2:41 PM, That One Guy said: Quote 5. Black Panther - 144/389 You were still closer than many of us Quote 57. Game Night - 23/64 101. Strangers: Prey at Night - 12/26 A couple of notches away from spot on calls, but otherwise, good shots, mate Quote 97. Death Wish - 11/27 121. Midnight Sun - 2/4 Not too bad Quote 77. Pacific Rim Uprising - 17/42 Way too low on the OW, but legs are piss poor so it may not come that far from the DOM total.... but it's still a meh prediction Quote 40. Tomb Raider - 34/81 62. Love, Simon - 18/61 70. Annihilation - 20/50 A little too optimistic, were we? None of them are J. Jonah Laughter Club worthy, but.... yeah. Quote 9. A Wrinkle in Time - 86/280 76. Early Man - 14/43 91. Paul, Apostle of Christ - 8/32 96. Unsane - 9/28 98. The Hurricane Heist - 11/27 100. Gringo - 9/25 115. Samson - 4/14 You tried. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Not gonna comment on this weekend's releases, but as far as OW's: Acrimony was spot on, well done; God's Not Dead was quite overpredicted; and Ready Player One..... cue the J. Jonah gif ) Edited March 31, 2018 by MCKillswitch123 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 (edited) ONE DUDE! 80m opening weekend is misguided! How can an original film make that much... even Avatar didn't make that much. Off the top of my head only Inside Out and Secret Pets made more than a $80m opening weekend for an original film *NOTE* RP1 is as original as the first Shrek... it may be based on a book... but it was a book no one read However you may have got lucky on the total of over $200m.. i believe Edited March 31, 2018 by IronJimbo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Guy Posted March 31, 2018 Author Share Posted March 31, 2018 y'all grade my predictions for yourself from now on I'm too lazy for this. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
