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That One Guy

That One Guy Grades His 2018 Predictions

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On 12/21/2017 at 9:41 AM, That One Guy said:
  • Insidious: The Last Key - 12/26


19 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Following Woman in Black 2:



8.24M (10.22M OD)




19.81M OW


Looks like I was too far off on this.  Let's wait for actuals though and hope it only gets a 6x from its preview numbers

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Insidious: The Last Key

Prediction: $12M OW/$26M DOM

Actual: $29M OW/$58M-$70M DOM

Result: I fucked up


This was a last minute adjustment as I got closer to release and downgraded my prediction from what it originally was.  I thought the marketing was weak (as in, there was barely any marketing) and that the film would fall far under the previous Insidious films.  Instead, it went above pretty much everyone's expectations and got to nearly a $30M OW and grossed more than the previous installment on its OW.  It's also on the upper end of other first weekend of January horror installments, being the biggest OW since The Devil Inside.  Lin Shaye's drawing power at work here, clearly.

Edited by That One Guy
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8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Why do you and Han do this to yourselves?

Because it's fun and interesting to compare and contrast preconceptions and postconceptions of box office grosses. I would have done the same, but Han and TOG are better at it (I'm clueless on OW/legs), and I already am doing a list of my own with the "Wins & Fails" thing.

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The Commuter

Prediction: $19M OW/$51M DOM

Actual: $13.7M OW/$32.88M-$42.47M DOM

Result: It could've been worse


I originally had this being much higher, so at least I downgraded my prediction a bit so that it wouldn't be completely embarrassing.  Still, barring The Post, it ended up being the highest grossing new opener for this weekend.  Who could've seen that coming?


Paddington 2

Prediction: $22M OW/$100M DOM

Actual: $10.9M OW/$38.15M-$65.4M DOM (depending on how strong legs are)

Result: Go fuck yourself America




Proud Mary

Prediction: $15M OW/$38M DOM

Actual: $9.925M OW/$21.835M-$29.775M DOM

Result: Not fantastic, but I was lower than most initial predictions


I remember seeing a lot of predictions for this film having it breaking out significantly, and I was super confused.  I thought the film wouldn't make nearly as much as some said.  I figured it could do decent business on OW and have okay legs and finish with a fine total given that it likely had a small budget.  I was right that people were overpredicting it, but I didn't go low enough.

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12 Strong

Prediction: $10M OW/$31M DOM

Actual: $15.8M OW/$39.5M-$55.3M DOM

Result: It could've been worse


I thought this would go a bit lower than where it ended up being.  Clearly I underestimated the audience that would come out for these "MURICAAAA FUCK YEAH" war movies.


Den of Thieves

Prediction: $7M OW/$18M DOM

Actual: $15.2M OW/$33.44M-$47.12M DOM

Result: :sparta: 


Approximately zero people saw it even coming close to a $15M OW.


Forever My Girl

Prediction: $2M OW/$4.5M DOM

Actual: $4.2M OW/$10.5M-$21M DOM

Result: lol whoops who cares

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Maze Runner: The Death Cure

Prediction: $28M OW/$76M DOM
Actual: $24M OW/$57.6M-$75.6M DOM

Result: Not too bad


Depending on how legs are, this isn't that bad of a prediction all things considered.  I may have overshot it, but I at least didn't predict it to have a huge drop off like some people probably thought.  I highly, highly doubt it gets to the high end on the domestic gross (that's the multi that the first Maze Runner got), but if it somehow does, then that'd be great.

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Prediction: $9M OW/$23M DOM

Actual: $9.3M OW/$19.53M-$26.04M DOM

Result: Pretty damn spot on


I nailed the OW prediction, so at this point it's just a matter on how good the legs for this are.  It needs a 2.47x multi to achieve my domestic total, and considering grosses are deflated this weekend and it has a B- CinemaScore (indicating WOM isn't awful), then that's a completely doable goal.

Edited by That One Guy
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Fifty Shades Freed

Prediction: $35M OW/$83M DOM

Actual: $38.5M OW/$77M-$96.25M DOM

Result: Depends on how legs are


The OW prediction was only off by about $3M or so, so I was pretty close on that.  The domestic total's accuracy will depend on legs.  It needs a 2.15x or so to achieve my prediction, which it could do given that it's likely to be more frontloaded


Peter Rabbit

Prediction: $24M OW/$78M DOM

Actual: $25M OW/$72.5M-$102.5M DOM

Result: Spot on OW, total will depend on legs


I'm very proud of my OW prediction, since it only came in $1M ahead of it, but I think legs on this might be stronger than I initially thought.  If it gets a 3.12x, then it'll hit my prediction right on the mark, but there's definitely a strong possibility that it goes above that.


The 15:17 to Paris

Prediction: $23M OW/$74M DOM

Actual: $12.5M OW/$27.5M-$37.5M DOM

Result: lmao nope

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On 21/12/2017 at 2:41 PM, That One Guy said:

 5. Black Panther - 144/389


You were still closer than many of us :sparta: :ohmygod:



57. Game Night - 23/64
101. Strangers: Prey at Night - 12/26

A couple of notches away from spot on calls, but otherwise, good shots, mate :)



97. Death Wish - 11/27
121. Midnight Sun - 2/4

Not too bad :redcapes:



77. Pacific Rim Uprising - 17/42

Way too low on the OW, but legs are piss poor so it may not come that far from the DOM total.... but it's still a meh prediction :ph34r:



40. Tomb Raider - 34/81
62. Love, Simon - 18/61

70. Annihilation - 20/50

A little too optimistic, were we? None of them are J. Jonah Laughter Club worthy, but.... yeah.



9. A Wrinkle in Time - 86/280
76. Early Man - 14/43

91. Paul, Apostle of Christ - 8/32
96. Unsane - 9/28

98. The Hurricane Heist - 11/27
100. Gringo - 9/25
115. Samson - 4/14



You tried.



(Not gonna comment on this weekend's releases, but as far as OW's: Acrimony was spot on, well done; God's Not Dead was quite overpredicted; and Ready Player One..... cue the J. Jonah gif :ph34r:)

Edited by MCKillswitch123
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80m opening weekend is misguided! How can an original film make that much... even Avatar didn't make that much.


Off the top of my head only Inside Out and Secret Pets made more than a $80m opening weekend for an original film

*NOTE* RP1 is as original as the first Shrek... it may be based on a book... but it was a book no one read

However you may have got lucky on the total of over $200m.. i believe

Edited by IronJimbo
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