The Panda Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 (edited) Shouldn't it be a no brainer that TLJ will lose screens its second weekend? It's obviously not going to be pulling 220m OW sized audiences it's second weekend to warrant the movie taking up the majority of the screens. Add to that how many movies are playing this Christmas, which many theaters are contractually obligated to give a screen, and the fact they already cleared many of their holdovers last week, complaining that TLJ is losing screens is rather silly. It shouldn't take Empire or Rth to point that out to you. Edited December 22, 2017 by The Last Panda 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 (edited) 8 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: Yes, if it's not performing like the trilogy predecessor, it is...look at the movies released in 2015 - they made way for TFA, not the other way around. TLJ is making way for them like a normal blockbuster. I'm pointing out info that makes the sky high total BO predictions (of which I was one before the actual movie came out) more and more unlikely by the day. Look at Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday predicts for legs for this movie...we have a continuing down swing...this adds more data for those to take it as they will...some, apparently not so well... You need to keep in mind what TFA's new competition was: Daddy's Home: 38.7M Joy: 17M The Big Short: 10.5M in only 1,500 theaters Concussion: 10.5M Point Break: 9.8M Total: 86.5M (76M without Big Short) This is what TLJ has to face: Jumanji: 30M at least PP3: 30M more than likely Showman: 9.5M Downsizing: 8M Money: 5M (on Christmas Day) Father Figures: 4M Total: 86.5M There are 6 new movies in over 2k theaters vs 4 in 2015 and two openers this weekend close in size to Daddy's Home. TLJ has a lot more screen space to compete with. And yeah, TFA definitely didn't keep all of its showings in its second weekend. Edited December 22, 2017 by WrathOfHan 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 So... what did I miss? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomCat Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: No, I didn't say that...I said I don't put 100% faith in it, just like I don't totally discount the other 100%...but thanks for that one! Nuance...something often missing on internet chat boards... You at several times tried to equate the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
m3racer123 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 hours ago, Taruseth said: Star Wars: The Force Awakens BV 142,889,379 21.12.2015 – 24.12.2015 Star Wars: The Force Awakens BV 111,908,355 28.12.2015 – 31.12.2015 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story BV 89,345,263 26.12.2016 – 29.12.2016 The Dark Knight WB 80,203,728 21.07.2008 – 24.07.2008 Finding Dory BV 78,257,629 20.06.2016 – 23.06.2016 Star Wars: The Last Jedi BV 76,800,425 18.12.2017 – 21.12.2017 With that Thursday it would be the sixth biggest set of Weekdays (I didn't include headstarts) if I didn't forget any other films with really big first weekdays. That Jumanji number looks good. EDIT: The Date is Day.Month.Year Jurassic World made over $87m in its first set of weekdays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 17 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: The same showing count - yes. The base off the initial weekend was the same for the entire period. It was that sold out. This "base" for TLJ was 21 on initial "set" and for 1st Monday (not counting the ballooned weekend shows added last minute). It's not now...it's gonna be 6 less in a week. I mean, it's under It, Thor, and GOTG showings in its 2nd weekend. Most of these "big movies" aren't losing their "set" by weekend #2...this one is. So, competition is mattering - and that should not be brushed aside...and probably the weaker weekdays, too... I tend to think these huge opener movies do not need anywhere near as many screens on the second weekend. They burn off a lot of demand in the first 3.5 days from Thursday previews to opening Sunday night. Even Force Awakens dropped almost $100m on the second weekend despite a really good holiday boost thanks to Christmas landing on Friday. That was about 40% drop in demand, so in theory they needed 40% less screens to meet the demand. That was the best case scenario we will ever see for a huge opener on the second weekend too. Usually the demand decline is more like 55-65%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, The Last Panda said: Shouldn't it be a no brained that TLJ will lose screens it's second weekend? It's obviously not going to be pulling 220m OW sized audiences it's second weekend to warrant the movie taking up the majority of the screens. Add to that how many movies are playing this Christmas, which many theaters are contractually obligated to give a screen, and the fact they already cleared many of their holdovers last week, complaining that TLJ is losing screens is rather silly. It shouldn't take Empire or Rth to point that out to you. Its doing about 70 million over its 2nd weekend vs 150 for TFA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Telling @EmpireCity or RTH that what they say is wrong here is the equivalent of a sailor trying to explain mountain climbing to a a mountaineer. Thats just not how this works. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmpireCity Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: Yes, if it's not performing like the trilogy predecessor, it is...look at the movies released in 2015 - they made way for TFA, not the other way around. TLJ is making way for them like a normal blockbuster. I'm pointing out info that makes the sky high total BO predictions (of which I was one before the actual movie came out) more and more unlikely by the day. Look at Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday predicts for legs for this movie...we have a continuing down swing...this adds more data for those to take it as they will...some, apparently not so well... Lol. For a second I will assume this ridiculous scenario is correct. The reality is The Last Jedi is making more money and performing above Rogue One, yet your theater has somehow decided that a movie performing above that level is suddenly a dud (despite selling better) and is voluntarily pulling shows and giving them to..... who? The under performing Greatest Showman? Downsizing? Father Figures? A mild hit of Jumanji that is performing worse than Sing? A review trashed Pitch Perfect 3? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAR Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 16 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: "I'm no "industry hotshot". I'm a nobody, but I know for damn sure that 20+ years ago when I first started seriously following the industry I didn't spend my time seeing if my voice could be the loudest in the room. I spent most of my time listening, reading, learning and asking questions of people that knew more than I did." That's Empire... But he still works in the industry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, EmpireCity said: Lol. For a second I will assume this ridiculous scenario is correct. The reality is The Last Jedi is making more money and performing above Rogue One, yet your theater has somehow decided that a movie performing above that level is suddenly a dud (despite selling better) and is voluntarily pulling shows and giving them to..... who? The under performing Greatest Showman? Downsizing? Father Figures? A mild hit of Jumanji that is performing worse than Sing? A review trashed Pitch Perfect 3? They could be like my theater and give Showman two screens until All the Money in the World is out on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 (edited) 24 minutes ago, EmpireCity said: This is flat out incorrect..... and what competition? What movie is competing on a financial basis (outside of showing requirements) with The Last Jedi? Let's go for simple...but should we really do economics on the board after psychology yesterday? Maybe very simply... If movie A has 1 screen of 100 seats and movie B has 4 screens of 100 seats, movie A's revenue should be 25% of movie B's revenue. If Movie A is selling out its single show 100 seat screens and has demand for 75 more seats, and you have a lot of seats on movie B's 4 screens (say they are selling 260 seats over 4 screens), you make adjustments and give movie A 200 seats and movie B 300 seats if you can. (Now this is wildly simplified and there's a million more things to discuss, but this should keep it at the level of movie board posting)... Movies don't have to be making the same amount of total revenue to compete or to make a difference on each other when there is limited resources (ie number of showings per day)... If you want a concrete example, I can give you one just for today... EDIT: And yes, Jumaji has already gotten 1 and sold out 7pm tonight, so likely another is coming...it started with 5 showings at set and is at 6 today... Edited December 22, 2017 by TwoMisfits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAR Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, Brainbug said: Telling @EmpireCity or RTH that what they say is wrong here is the equivalent of a sailor trying to explain mountain climbing to a a mountaineer. Thats just not how this works. It's like telling Trump he has no idea how to be President....wait bad example 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, Brainbug said: Telling @EmpireCity or RTH that what they say is wrong here is the equivalent of a sailor trying to explain mountain climbing to a a mountaineer. Thats just not how this works. I like blasphemy. Livens things up 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 10 minutes ago, EmpireCity said: Lol. For a second I will assume this ridiculous scenario is correct. The reality is The Last Jedi is making more money and performing above Rogue One, yet your theater has somehow decided that a movie performing above that level is suddenly a dud (despite selling better) and is voluntarily pulling shows and giving them to..... who? The under performing Greatest Showman? Downsizing? Father Figures? A mild hit of Jumanji that is performing worse than Sing? A review trashed Pitch Perfect 3? 2 In total but on a daily basis it's less than 10% now over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Craig Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Do we yet know what a budget is on The Showman? My wife saw the trailer last night on TV for the first time and immediately commented about seeing it. I was shocked honestly. I am curious to see it but didn't think to ask her about it. What is The Showman looking at for an OW? It is a long 4-day weekend I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 (edited) Just now, Captain Craig said: Do we yet know what a budget is on The Showman? My wife saw the trailer last night on TV for the first time and immediately commented about seeing it. I was shocked honestly. I am curious to see it but didn't think to ask her about it. What is The Showman looking at for an OW? It is a long 4-day weekend I suppose. The budget is 84M The 5 day is looking to be around 13-14M Edited December 22, 2017 by WrathOfHan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 When you see Misfits and EC fighting: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Craig Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 ^^^^ So almost in line with Justice League. I totally get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmpireCity Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: Let's go for simple...but should we really do economics on the board after psychology yesterday? Maybe very simply... If movie A has 1 screen of 100 seats and movie B has 4 screens of 100 seats, movie A's revenue should be 25% of movie B's revenue. If Movie A is selling out its single show 100 seat screens and has demand for 75 more seats, and you have a lot of seats on movie B's 4 screens (say they are selling 260 seats over 4 screens), you make adjustments and give movie A 200 seats and movie B 300 seats if you can. (Now this is wildly simplified and there's a million more things to discuss, but this should keep it at the level of movie board posting)... Movies don't have to be even to compete evenly or even have even financial effect to make a difference on each other when there is limited resources (ie number of showings per day)... If you want a concrete example, I can give you one just for today... Instead of making up hypothetical, let's stick with reality. How many screens does your magic theater have overall? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
