4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

[redfirebird2008]

24 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

It's 430 here. Just woke up for a minute to check numbers.

 

I was obviously way way wrong by expecting north of 100% jump for TLJ. 

 

You can no longer say that it's a vocal minority of Star Wars nerds who are trying to create bad word of mouth.

 

There's a lot of people who absolutely just hated this movie. And to illustrate the point even more, when I got to my brother's house for Christmas he asked me how the movie was and I express to him that I didn't enjoy it all that much and he said to me that that is what he has been hearing from other people as well.

 

 27 million on Christmas Day  is absolutely positively horrendous. If that number is true then not only is 700 dead but it COULD be in jeopardy of not passing Titanic. 

 

The vocal minority (as some have called those of us who didnt care for it) aren't such a minority after all.

 

Titanc’s 659 will not be easy for TLJ. Needs to beat Rogue One by about 24% on remaining gross to get there. Considering Rogue One just beat it by about 15% on the second Monday, 660 total looks tough. 

 

Now we need to hope it receives a really nice Discount Tuesday boost. 

Edited December 26, 2017 by redfirebird2008

[Brainbug]

5 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Titanc’s 659 will not be easy for TLJ. Needs to beat Rogue One by about 20% on remaining gross to get there. Considering Rogue One just beat it by about 15% on the second Monday, 660 total looks tough. 

 

Now we need to hope it receives a really nice Discount Tuesday boost. 

 

I hoped the little expansion for Titanic earlier this month would get it to 660, just for having a nice, round number.

 

Funny enough, now the 4-Day estimate from BOM is practically right, with the Sunday beeing too low and the Monday too high (). And didnt @EmpireCity say that many theaters arent doing Discount Tuesday this and next week?

[Poseidon]

People need to understand, that TLJ is just doing what it can as a movie, that wasn't able to create a comparable hype with the General Audience.

 

I said it before. Everything it does is quite normal. Only because TFA did 900m, it doesn't mean, that every hyped up housewife, that saw TFA, was going to come back for a second time. 

 

Hype creates an audience, that would usually not see the movie. That's how things go and with an additional amount of competition in 2017, TLJs run ist completely explainable. It's still doing $650m - $700m, still more, than JW, that was a movie going on hype. This only shows, how big of a base audience SW has.

 

It's "small" compared to TFA, but come on, SPider Man doing $400m wasn't a bad number, just because Titanic did $600m a couble of years earlier. 

[baumer]

3 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

People need to understand, that TLJ is just doing what it can as a movie, that wasn't able to create a comparable hype with the General Audience.

 

I said it before. Everything it does is quite normal. Only because TFA did 900m, it doesn't mean, that every hyped up housewife, that saw TFA, was going to come back for a second time. 

 

Hype creates an audience, that would usually not see the movie. That's how things go and with an additional amount of competition in 2017, TLJs run ist completely explainable. It's still doing $650m - $700m, still more, than JW, that was a movie going on hype. This only shows, how big of a base audience SW has.

 

It's "small" compared to TFA, but come on, SPider Man doing $400m wasn't a bad number, just because Titanic did $600m a couble of years earlier. 

 

Everything you said here is wrong. There's nothing normal about what it is doing. It opened up to 10% less than the force awakens and if the movie was enjoyable and it was much more along the lines of what Star Wars fans were used to then 800 million would have been on the table. These drops and these pathetic increases that is getting day to day is simply because the word of mouth is not there. For the film to be performing the way you are claiming it is in your post it would have had to open to about 30% less than what the force awakens did. But it did not. The interest was obviously there for the Last Jedi but the word of mouth has not been. There's no other way to spin this. There's no other way of looking at it.

 

Not getting a 3x over Christmas is fucking horrible.

[FantasticBeasts]

Honestly at this point the worldwilde crown is not a done deal.

TLJ is obv the frontrunner but Beauty may still give this a shot.

[meriodejaneiro]

Anxiously awaiting for @robcain new entry at Forbes after TLJ 27M monday (we'll wait for him to come out of the toilet)

 

[redfirebird2008]

4 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

People need to understand, that TLJ is just doing what it can as a movie, that wasn't able to create a comparable hype with the General Audience.

 

I said it before. Everything it does is quite normal. Only because TFA did 900m, it doesn't mean, that every hyped up housewife, that saw TFA, was going to come back for a second time. 

 

Hype creates an audience, that would usually not see the movie. That's how things go and with an additional amount of competition in 2017, TLJs run ist completely explainable. It's still doing $650m - $700m, still more, than JW, that was a movie going on hype. This only shows, how big of a base audience SW has.

 

It's "small" compared to TFA, but come on, SPider Man doing $400m wasn't a bad number, just because Titanic did $600m a couble of years earlier. 

 

It is not locked to beat Jurassic World. Needs about $257m. Rogue One grossed $214m after Day 11. That means it needs a 20% lead on Rogue One to reach JW total. 

[FantasticBeasts]

8 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

Everything you said here is wrong. There's nothing normal about what it is doing. It opened up to 10% less then the force awakens and if the movie was enjoyable and it was much more along the lines of what Star Wars fans were used to then 800 million would have been on a table. These drops and these pathetic increases that is getting today today is simply because the word of mouth is not there. For the film to be performing the way you are claiming it is in your post it would have had to open to about 30% less than what the force awakens did. But it did not. The interest was obviously there for the Last Jedi but the word of mouth has not been. There's no other way to spin this. There's no other way of looking at it.

I think all of you guys are underestimating the a star wars movie a year effect. I told this a long way before and I was mocked.

Star Wars fans will always be here OW in massive numbers but the GA wont embrace those movies as much If they lose their speciality factor.

I bet Han Solo will SUFFER.

I am not arguing that the WoM is mixed, because it is. But I do also believe that non SW are already starting to get tired.

Edited December 26, 2017 by FantasticBeasts

[Brainbug]

In a weird sence, TLJ's run is a bit of the opposite of TFA run. With every day that goes by, we are a bit more underwhelmed, while TFA constantly blew the predictions out of the water. I mean, you all remember that incredible first Wednesday increase or?

[mikee11]

7 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Honestly at this point the worldwilde crown is not a done deal.

TLJ is obv the frontrunner but Beauty may still give this a shot.

 

It's on its way to make less than Rogue one in China. I don't know how accurate these estimate worldwide numbers are or how big the drops will be.

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

I think all of you guys are underestimating the a star wars movie a year effect. I told this a long way before and I was mocked.

Star Wars fans will always be here OW in massive numbers but the GA wont embrace those movies as much If they lose their speciality factor.

I bet Ham Solo will SUFFER.

I am not arguing that the WoM is mixed, because it is. But I do also believe that non SW are already starting to get tired.

 

Perfection.

 

And yes, the Han Solo movie seemed doomed from the day it was announced. Its maybe the most unneccessary movie of the last few years. I dont think it will cross much more than 300M.

[redfirebird2008]

5 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

I think all of you guys are underestimating the a star wars movie a year effect. I told this a long way before and I was mocked.

Star Wars fans will always be here OW in massive numbers but the GA wont embrace those movies as much If they lose their speciality factor.

I bet Han Solo will SUFFER.

I am not arguing that the WoM is mixed, because it is. But I do also believe that non SW are already starting to get tired.

 

Law of diminishing returns can be applied to anything, even Star Wars. That Han Solo movie will be interesting to watch at the box office. 

[BK007]

17 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

People need to understand, that TLJ is just doing what it can as a movie, that wasn't able to create a comparable hype with the General Audience.

 

I said it before. Everything it does is quite normal. Only because TFA did 900m, it doesn't mean, that every hyped up housewife, that saw TFA, was going to come back for a second time. 

 

Hype creates an audience, that would usually not see the movie. That's how things go and with an additional amount of competition in 2017, TLJs run ist completely explainable. It's still doing $650m - $700m, still more, than JW, that was a movie going on hype. This only shows, how big of a base audience SW has.

 

It's "small" compared to TFA, but come on, SPider Man doing $400m wasn't a bad number, just because Titanic did $600m a couble of years earlier. 

Err, I haven't been around, but this post reeks off hindsight.

 

Oh, actually I knew it all along. Hmm. Really?

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, mikee11 said:

 

It's on its way to make less than Rogue one in China. I don't know how accurate these estimate worldwide numbers are or how big the drops will be.

 

Honestly, that isnt surprising. China disliked TFA, it hated RO. There was no reason to expect TLJ to gross more than Rogue One. The Chinese dont care for SW at all and the last two movies had mediocre-to bad WOM there.

[Poseidon]

10 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

Everything you said here is wrong. There's nothing normal about what it is doing. It opened up to 10% less than the force awakens and if the movie was enjoyable and it was much more along the lines of what Star Wars fans were used to then 800 million would have been on the table. These drops and these pathetic increases that is getting day to day is simply because the word of mouth is not there. For the film to be performing the way you are claiming it is in your post it would have had to open to about 30% less than what the force awakens did. But it did not. The interest was obviously there for the Last Jedi but the word of mouth has not been. There's no other way to spin this. There's no other way of looking at it.

 

Not getting a 3x over Christmas is fucking horrible.

Yeah. I'm wrong. Just like when I expected it to have a jump in the 69-80% range. Where I, to be honest, was wrong, too, but hey, that's how things go. What do I know about BO. 

 

Do I think, that reception played its part? Of course I do. The movie had a lot of press, that wasn't kind. Things went perfect for TFA and I also think, that Disney got a bit sloppy there with marketing.

 

Also, a movie a year takes the premium out of the franchise. RO lived off the rest of thy hype, created by TFA but now TLJ is feeling it.

 

Again, we need to realize, in which dimensions we are talking here. Somewhere around 65 Mil people will have seen TLJ in theaters in the USA when all is said and done. This is huge. And it will not get smaller, only because 22m saw it in the first 3 1/2 days. It's still a huge cultural happening, it's just one, that lost some audience on its way, that was never going to be able to hold up to TFA. 

[Agafin]

8 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

I think all of you guys are underestimating the a star wars movie a year effect. I told this a long way before and I was mocked.

Star Wars fans will always be here OW in massive numbers but the GA wont embrace those movies as much If they lose their speciality factor.

I bet Ham Solo will SUFFER.

I am not arguing that the WoM is mixed, because it is. But I do also believe that non SW are already starting to get tired.

I disagree. One mainline movie every two years with a spinoff in between does not seem excessive to me. If there was fatigue, TLJ's OW would not have been this high. This performance is purely due to mixed/toxic WOM imo.

[titanic2187]

A few days ago, TLJ could sit comfortably at all time #3 , but now , if that 27m holds, any "missteps" of TLJ will put it be#7 of all time

[titanic2187]

7 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Honestly, that isnt surprising. China disliked TFA, it hated RO. There was no reason to expect TLJ to gross more than Rogue One. The Chinese dont care for SW at all and the last two movies had mediocre-to bad WOM there.

And by the time it get released there in January, the bad buzz or at least divisive wom has already hurt or widespread to Chinese audience

[Poseidon]

11 minutes ago, BK007 said:

Err, I haven't been around, but this post reeks off hindsight.

 

Oh, actually I knew it all along. Hmm. Really?

No, that's surely not what the post is implicating. I expected TLJ to drop to $725 in my yearly forecast, that's what I can give you.

 

My post above has nothing to do with it, though. It's about the facts I know now. That's why I called the run explainable. I can't explain something based on a forecast. 

I did not know it all along, but I think I understand some factors leading to its run now. 

Edited December 26, 2017 by Poseidon

[FantasticBeasts]

2 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

No, that's surely not what the post is implicating. I expected TLJ to drop to $725 in my yearly forecast, that's what I can give you.

 

My post above has nothing to do with it, though. It's about the facts I know now. That's why I called the run explainable. I can't explain something based on a forecast. 

A $650m would have been fine with an OW 20m lower.