4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

[titanic2187]

6 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Not that Dom is anywhere near as important as worldwide, but this whole thing has a certain pottery too it.

 

TFA fans were gunning for Avatar world wide, they didn't stop to think can we even beat Titanic.

 

TLJ fans were gunning for Avatar dom, they didn't stop to think can we even beat Titanic.

 

 

actually I was quite shocked that TFA didn't beat Titanic, when all the dust was settle down, and it looks like Titanic was already a sure locked, but chinese come out to stop it.....

 

And this round, another sure bet of Titanic downfall, but seem pretty shaky as of now, proving once again, James cameron's original film was just as magical as those well established/nostalgic fueled franchise. 

[Lordmandeep]

If this misses 1.4 billion, Rian Johnson Trilogy is in trouble.

 

(conflicted goals for me now) 

[Arlborn]

29 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

You grew up on Star Wars, that is my point. It's next to impossible to think of how much you would have liked TFA without memories of Star Wars. If you're from USA you've basically been brainbugged into loving Star Wars your whole life. Hell I'm from the UK and my youth was bombarded by sws toys, games, adverts, films, tv shows.. it's impossible to avoid.

 

My point is knowing you would have liked TFA without Star Wars memories is hogwash, theres no way of knowing.

 

Anyway I agree with you that the visuals were pretty in TFA. The script, characters, action and humour on the otherhand, mediocre.

 

TFA could have been something so much more.

If TLJ proves anything so far is that TFA is exactly the Star Wars film the GA wanted. I bet if this one played as safe as TFA regarding nostalgia the reactions from the GA(Americans anyways, not sure about the rest of the world) would have been way more positive.

 

Expect IX to play closer to TFA.

[Mojoguy]

If this misses 1.4 billion, Rian Johnson Trilogy is in trouble.

(conflicted goals for me now)

Why 1.4B of all numbers?

[Arlborn]

4 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

If this misses 1.4 billion, Rian Johnson Trilogy is in trouble.

 

(conflicted goals for me now) 

Nah, that one is going ahead in one way or another. I do expect some of the original plans to be revised though if the final numbers are way below Disney's expectations.

 

What I'm wondering about is if that trilogy will be in more or in less danger if Episode IX does really well cause, as I said above, I expect Episode IX to play way safer.

[MinaTakla]

Overheard this casual conversation at the mall today between two mothers:

- So did you guys go see Star wars?

- Uh..no we went to see Jumaji first.  Kids wanted to see that. Didn't have time for Star Wars. Jumaji was amazing! What about Star Wars did you see it?

- Yea..didn't like it that much. I guess we'll go see Jumaji too. 

- Oh yes it's that good

 

Here in Dubai, Jumaji is way busier. No one is really caring about Star wars - and the mechandise is barely selling, local toy store has been having the same stuff for over 2 weeks. For me., Jack Black was the real highlight of Jumaji. Kevin Hart also doesn't get enough credit - his last few live-action films all made 100m DOM or close to it.

Edited December 26, 2017 by MinaTakla

[TommyA10]

If the 27m estimate holds, we have our first hint at GA WOM, which is meh to not so good. This is just an awful Christmas Day number (unless we get a 20% jump tomorrow or something crazy like that)...

 

edit

 

25-30% was the drop between SW/ESB (I know multiple releases and all, and BOM not being that reliable with the total number of SW re-releases) and TPM/AOTC so I guess 650m is what should have been expected all along.

Edited December 26, 2017 by TommyA10

[Taruseth]

28 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Not that Dom is anywhere near as important as worldwide, but this whole thing has a certain pottery too it.

 

TFA fans were gunning for Avatar world wide, they didn't stop to think can we even beat Titanic.

 

TLJ fans were gunning for Avatar dom, they didn't stop to think can we even beat Titanic.

 

 

It surely does, but that especially show how gigantic both Titanic and Avatar were.

 

This really leaves me wondering how well or not well Solo will perform...

[titanic2187]

if that $27m holds, which is highly likely as we didn't see any update or correction or denial from Rth, likely due to competition, not competition in term of box office, but the competition in term of nostalgic attachment, both jumanji and TLJ are now playing nostalgic element in the market, this is not something like sing vs rogue one, or TFA/ daddy home, making TLJ be more susceptible to  Jumanji, especially when WOM for TLJ are not as great as initial thought(It was obvious to me). 

 

If Disney are really taking issue seriously especially in the conjunction of FOX acquisition, I hope they keep in mind, their family-friendly strategy may not always work or the only strategy work, "fuck that family friendly!! not everyone going to cinema with family and not everyone own a family!!!"

 

I've sounded like TLJ "bombed" at $400m final......

 

 

[baumer]

I am on my phone right now so it's not as easy to express myself because of the Limited amount that I can do on here. But when I said everything is wrong about saying that the Last Jedi was only going to gross a certain amount ,what I meant was that when it opened at 220 million there's no way it should have had less than a 3 multiplier. That is the Crux of it

[Brainbug]

54 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

You grew up on Star Wars, that is my point. It's next to impossible to think of how much you would have liked TFA without memories of Star Wars. If you're from USA you've basically been brainbugged into loving Star Wars your whole life. Hell I'm from the UK and my youth was bombarded by sws toys, games, adverts, films, tv shows.. it's impossible to avoid.

 

My point is knowing you would have liked TFA without Star Wars memories is hogwash, theres no way of knowing.

 

Anyway I agree with you that the visuals were pretty in TFA. The script, characters, action and humour on the otherhand, mediocre.

 

TFA could have been something so much more.

 

 

 

[baumer]

13 minutes ago, TommyA10 said:

If the 27m estimate holds, we have our first hint at GA WOM, which is meh to not so good. This is just an awful Christmas Day number (unless we get a 20% jump tomorrow or something crazy like that)...

 

edit

 

25-30% was the drop between SW/ESB (I know multiple releases and all, and BOM not being that reliable with the total number of SW re-releases) and TPM/AOTC so I guess 650m is what should have been expected all along.

 

If the Last Jedi had opened at 190-200 then 600-650 would make perfect sense. But went open to the second highest weekend of all time the multiplier is going to be pathetic

[Poseidon]

Just now, Christmas baumer said:

I am on my phone right now so it's not as easy to express myself because of the Limited amount that I can do on here. But when I said everything is wrong about saying that the Last Jedi was only going to gross a certain amount ,what I meant was that when it opened at 220 million there's no way it should have had less than a 3 multiplier. That is the Crux of it

 

For years we were saying, it was impossible for a movie to gross more than 100m on OW in December...

We are pretty new to what a "normal" movie is supposed to do in December after opening to $200m. 

 

But here is something to think about:

Age of Ultron did 80% of the Multiplier "The Avengers" did.

TFA did a 3,77 multiplier. 80% of it is exactly 3.0 or about $660m for TLJ.

 

Another example:

The Dark Knight was the Hyped movie and did a 3,3 Mult. The Dark Knight rises did 82% of that. 

 

Hype, no Hype. Pretty consistant there...

[IronJimbo]

6 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

If the Last Jedi had opened at 190-200 then 600-650 would make perfect sense. But went open to the second highest weekend of all time the multiplier is going to be pathetic

After the OW I think everyone was expecting 700m

[Elessar]

Just now, Poseidon said:

 

For years we were saying, it was impossible for a movie to gross more than 100m on OW in December...

Which is absolutely stupid to say. ROTK was huge when it opened back in 2003.

[Brainbug]

20 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

If the Last Jedi had opened at 190-200 then 600-650 would make perfect sense. But went open to the second highest weekend of all time the multiplier is going to be pathetic

 

I kinda...disagree. The Last Jedi would always have a 200M+ OW, because of the cliffhanger Ending of TFA and SW fans beeing even loonier than Marvel Fans when it comes to OW-rushing. Now, TFA was just a cultural phenomenon, bringing people into the theater that werent going there for years and thereby softening the drops throughout the whole run. Add to that fantastic WOM and insane repeat viewings and you have nearly 1B DOM total.

 

The Last Jedi has mixed WOM. People who love it (like me) will see it as many times in theaters as TFA, but the big chunck of people who didnt like it - the majority of them simply wont give it another try. Add to that that it was unreasonable to expect these non-moviegoers to come back again and really hard competition in form of the WOM-monster Jumanji and the longer run time and you have bigger drops.

The OW and Legs of TFA in December were unprecedented. TLJ having the same monster OW and summer like-legs would also be unprecedented. But in no way should anyone ever call such a run pathetic. I mean, this thing will have 70M+ people in the US seeing it. Thats hardly pathetic if you ask me. Its not always about multipliers, its also about the bigger picture.

Edited December 26, 2017 by Brainbug

[Mojoguy]

I think SW fans rushed out to see TLJ during the first weekend since it was a sequel, and it ended up not being as rewatchable to many of them. It is going to take a hit in the legs for those reasons.

[Brainbug]

Just now, Mojoguy said:

I think SW fans rushed out to see TLJ during the first weekend since it was a sequel, and it ended up not being as rewatchable to many of them. It is going to take a hit in the legs for those reasons.

 

I agree. Despite me loving the movie, it is far less crowd-pleasing than TFA.

[Valonqar]

48 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

If TLJ proves anything so far is that TFA is exactly the Star Wars film the GA wanted. I bet if this one played as safe as TFA regarding nostalgia the reactions from the GA(Americans anyways, not sure about the rest of the world) would have been way more positive.

 

Expect IX to play closer to TFA.

Not sure about that. IMO, IX is not going to play closer to TFA unless previews are so good they turn its fortunes around (what Adele did for Skyfall and Taika for Ragnarok). It's going to land somewhere in between at best but in between closer to TLJ (700+M instead of 800+M). 

 

IMO, the biggest problem with TLJ is the insufferable military bloat. TFA was all about adventure and discovery while military technicalities were barely a factor in the movie. OTOH, there's way too much time spent on that in TLJ and it's so damn slow and un-engaging. Someone somewhere said it's a ticking clock without any ticking. Heck, at times, due to all technobabble, I thought I was watching a Trek episode! Military stuff = trade taxes of ST. So casual fans are going to react more negatively to boredom than to whether character XY developed the way they wanted or theory XY proved true or false, etc. Especially if they have an entertaining alternative in the form of Jumanji.

Edited December 26, 2017 by Valonqar

[Elessar]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

But in now way should anyone ever call such a run pathetic. I mean, this thing will have 70M+ people in the US seeing it.

More like 60m.