4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

wondering why The Post didn't go wide considering the big names behind it

Fox already has two other wide releases and SOW; putting The Post in is overkill

[John Marston]

700m is not a lock for SW either domestic or overseas. However domestic is more likely. China performance apparently will be shit

[IronJimbo]

5 minutes ago, John Marston said:

700m is not a lock for SW either domestic or overseas. However domestic is more likely. China performance apparently will be shit

But.. overseas is ahead of Dom right now without China.

[baumer]

1 hour ago, scabab said:

No it has no chance of making $700 million and the further this goes on the more apparent it will be.

 

If I remember I'll remind you how "wrong" I am in a few weeks time when it'll be even more obvious than it is now.

 

Not making 700 million and having no chance at making 700 million are completely different things. It needs less than a 3.2 multiplier to make 700 million. I would be willing to offer you 5 to 1 odds that it does. You put up $20 towards the site if it does make more than 700 million and if it doesn't I will put up $100 towards the site. 

 

Are u that confident?

[Porthos]

18 hours ago, B D Joe said:

If it were up to me, there would not be a Star Wars movie every year.

 

16 hours ago, junkshop36 said:

 

As much as I love SW I agree with this sentiment. Probably not gonna happen though 

I ALSO agree with the sentiment that there shouldn't be one SW movie every year.

 

There should be two of them a year. 

[Webslinger]

Enormous drop for Star Wars, but it was always a given that Christmas Eve would significantly deflate the weekend number. It still has Christmas and New Year's ahead of it, so I wouldn't panic too much just yet.

 

Jumanji is off to a great start. It should continue to clean up in the week ahead and has a realistic shot of topping $200 million.

 

Pitch Perfect 3 crumbled from its predecessor, as expected. The holiday release should at least help it to save face when all is said and done, but tossing up an opening weekend (even with a deflated Sunday) under the previous film's opening day has to sting.

 

The other openers are off to weak starts. Greatest Showman and Downsizing are both going to go down as costly duds - especially Downsizing, given that audiences are following the critics' lead in not really being sure what to do with it. Father Figures is also a bomb, but that was inevitable; why Warner Bros didn't just let it die last January is still a mystery to me. They must be embarrassed that Darkest Hour beat it despite playing in more than two-thirds fewer theaters.

[Ezen Baklattan]

23 minutes ago, John Marston said:

wondering why The Post didn't go wide considering the big names behind it

It's going wide on January 12. Similar strategy to Hidden Figures and American Sniper.

[JB33]

What's everyone's take on the overseas gross for TLJ?

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, JB33 said:

What's everyone's take on the overseas gross for TLJ?

I guess it's good. I don't pay as much attention to overseas as a whole because it's harder to judge. I do sometimes pay attention to individual markets, though.

[JB33]

1 minute ago, cannastop said:

I guess it's good. I don't pay as much attention to overseas as a whole because it's harder to judge. I do sometimes pay attention to individual markets, though.

Yeah I don't know what to make of it. I'm trying to ask more, say less about things with which I'm not quite as learned as others yet.

[redfirebird2008]

1 hour ago, The Last Panda said:

Yeah, id definitely say we need to wait TLJ out to see how WoM is.  The Holidays are pretty volatile for individual days, and it's hard to make comparisons because any recent comps have a completely different calendar and any comparable calendars are so far back that there's been major structural industry changes since then.

 

And the size of the movie. The 2011 calendar did not exactly work for projecting Rogue One in 2016. 

[RobinHood26]

18 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

Not making 700 million and having no chance at making 700 million are completely different things. It needs less than a 3.2 multiplier to make 700 million. I would be willing to offer you 5 to 1 odds that it does. You put up $20 towards the site if it does make more than 700 million and if it doesn't I will put up $100 towards the site. 

 

Are u that confident?

 

@Christmas baumer always is willing to put his money where his mouth is. Thats commendable, I love it. 

[JB33]

1 minute ago, Jay Hollywood said:

 

@Christmas baumer always is willing to put his money where his mouth is. Thats commendable, I love it. 

Yep, which says something since baumer has been critical of TLJ's dailies since OW.

[MrGamer]

27 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

Not making 700 million and having no chance at making 700 million are completely different things. It needs less than a 3.2 multiplier to make 700 million. I would be willing to offer you 5 to 1 odds that it does. You put up $20 towards the site if it does make more than 700 million and if it doesn't I will put up $100 towards the site. 

 

Are u that confident?

[Rebeccas]

So if we just take out Sunday’s number out of the equation and replace it with Monday’s projection instead, the 3 day weekend number comes out to like $85m, isn’t that still a 61% drop?

[JB33]

6 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

So if we just take out Sunday’s number out of the equation and replace it with Monday’s projection instead, the 3 day weekend number comes out to like $85m, isn’t that still a 61% drop?

Yes, because the Friday increase was not good at all.

[SLAM!]

1 hour ago, John Marston said:

700m is not a lock for SW either domestic or overseas. However domestic is more likely. China performance apparently will be shit

 

This surprises me because I would've thought more Chinese audience members would go see it because of the new Asian-ethnicity character.

[Mojoguy]

This surprises me because I would've thought more Chinese audience members would go see it because of the new Asian-ethnicity character.

Didn't help Rogue One, and that movie actually had a popular Chinese actor.

[redfirebird2008]

9 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Yes, because the Friday increase was not good at all.

 

The entire week was slightly inflated though. New releases don’t usually increase 6% on Thursday or drop 58% on Monday outside summer. 

[KP1025]

1 minute ago, slambros said:

 

This surprises me because I would've thought more Chinese audience members would go see it because of the new Asian-ethnicity character.

 

Adding Asian characters in a film is rarely a draw in itself for Chinese audiences unless they are played by someone really well-known. Rogue One had Donnie Yen (one of the biggest names in China), and that still only propelled it to $69 million.