4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

[Deep Wang]

6 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Actually, I think $175M to weekend actual is fair...Friday would be the Sunday and Sunday would be the Friday (having some "wasted time")...so $175M to $67M would be the most "fair" drop to compute...

I agree, I'm just taking the piss.  

[The Panda]

16 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

It may be more backloaded for now, but once the Holidays end, I fully expect it to hold up worse than R1. So 680 still sounds like a good bet to me. 

Why?  There's no competition for it in January and not the only Oscar film that'd be competition (and possibly its only competition) is the Post.

[hasanahmad]

Any early Sunday numbers ? 

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, The Last Panda said:

Why?  There's no competition for it in January and not the only Oscar film that'd be competition (and possibly its only competition) is the Post.

Paddington 2 should be some major family competition if it's really as good as said...and acres of movies opening Jan 12 to take screens...

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, The Last Panda said:

Why?  There's no competition for it in January and not the only Oscar film that'd be competition (and possibly its only competition) is the Post.

Because I expect WOM to hit it much harder post holidays. 

[Mojoguy]

Taking out a huge preview number stacks the deck and is just trying to make a movie look good.

Let's take out BvS's $27.7m previews from its OW too. Nah. That movie had shit legs and is the reason JL is tanking.

[Deep Wang]

5 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

 

Now you are just trying to make TLJ look good even if it makes no sense.

If Thursday night previews showings didn't exist, those people WOULD have seen it on Friday.

I don't have to make it look good!  It's going to be the third highest grossing movie of all time domestically.  

[MovieMan89]

7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Nah, I think it had a lot of factors...

1. Length with the short and the division over the short 

2. Seasonality

3. Fast screen/showing drop thanks to TLJ and tons of Xmas movies...Moana held them so much better last year...

4. Lots of animated and family movies around, even if they didn't hit big...every little cut matters

5. Moviepass - kids don't have them...maybe this is the movie that started to matter for animateds...I mean, Ferdinand is going nowhere...The Star, even with its nice little leg out, went really nowhere (although it will do 2x its budget DOM)...I'd watch all the animated releases coming and see where it goes...summer ones should hold up the "best", but it should be interesting to watch for them...

 

I mean, Moviepass is moving to 2 million adult users and counting...how much is this now as a % of routine moviegoers?

The Moviepass logic is that parents who have it aren't taking kids to movies anymore because they don't have moviepass like they do? Can't they use their Moviepass and pay for the kids? Just a bit confused on that. 

Edited December 24, 2017 by MovieMan89

[The Panda]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

Paddington 2 should be some major family competition if it's really as good as said...and acres of movies opening Jan 12 to take screens...

You think they'll take away Star Wars screens before they take away screens for Father Figures, Pitch Perfect 3, Downsizing, The Greatest Showman and Ferdinand?

 

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Because I expect WOM to hit it much harder post holidays. 

We don't have a real indication how positive/negative WoM is yet.  Maybe this weekend was just typical blockbuster frontloading mixed with a Christmas Eve sunday, maybe it was mixed WoM, maybe both.

[ThomasNicole]

I really can't see a movie with latin themes and bad marketing making + $200M as disappointing, especially considering the movie surpass basically all the expectations...

 

Okay, in admissions maybe it will surpass just TGD / Cars 3 and i agreed this is not exactly huge, the legs will also be just good and not spectacular like it could be, but for this type of movie with the whole political thing happening , i think $ 200M is a big win and should be celebrate

 

Also the budget is report to being the same all the others recently Pixar movies have, which is around $ 175M [except for the sequels which costs $ 200M]

[MovieMan89]

12 minutes ago, The Last Panda said:

You think they'll take away Star Wars screens before they take away screens for Father Figures, Pitch Perfect 3, Downsizing, The Greatest Showman and Ferdinand?

 

We don't have a real indication how positive/negative WoM is yet.  Maybe this weekend was just typical blockbuster frontloading mixed with a Christmas Eve sunday, maybe it was mixed WoM, maybe both.

It dropped 70% in its second weekend. C'mon, that's not all the calendar. Let's say the calendar was the 21-23 so we remove Xmas Eve, I fail to see how it makes more than an additional 15m? And even with another 15m, that's still a big 60%+ tumble for it. 

Edited December 24, 2017 by MovieMan89

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The Moviepass logic is that parents who have it aren't taking kids to movies anymore because they don't have moviepass like they do? Can't they use their Moviepass and pay for the kids? Just a bit confused on that. 

No, you can only use Moviepass for yourself...yeah, the theory is, that the parents now both go to movies more (so don't feel like going again to take kids) and also now feel like they don't feel like paying more per each ticket for their kid to go than it would cost them plus dealing with extra inconvenience.

 

For example, mom and dad have Moviepass and go on 2 movie date nights/month...and they have 3 kids.  Are they putting out $31.50 to see a kid movie at $10.50/kid ticket when they know they only pay $4.50/ticket per movie for themselves?...PLUS they have to wait to use their Moviepass and bet on getting 5 tickets at the theater pre-show, now getting either worse seats as a group or paying for both Moviepass and separate adult tickets if they want to get good seats...

 

It's like a double whammy on the parent vs just saying "well, we'll wait for it on Netflix/DVD/Amazon/Redbox...I mean, this way I don't have to buy popcorn or deal with kids, either"...

 

EDIT: If someone doesn't figure out a FamilyPass, this is gonna bite the industry in the butt more rapidly than they expect...

Edited December 24, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[aabattery]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

It dropped 70% in its second weekend. C'mon, that's not all the calendar. 

 

Respect and recognise the 69, please.

[John Marston]

Coco is a decent performer but nothing more. Nothing special about its legs or gross

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, The Last Panda said:

You think they'll take away Star Wars screens before they take away screens for Father Figures, Pitch Perfect 3, Downsizing, The Greatest Showman and Ferdinand?

 

We don't have a real indication how positive/negative WoM is yet.  Maybe this weekend was just typical blockbuster frontloading mixed with a Christmas Eve sunday, maybe it was mixed WoM, maybe both.

It won't leave theaters, but TLJ will probably drop to 1 screen total at all 12s and below with all the Jan 12 openers and expanding Oscar stuff...

[Mojoguy]

Coco is a decent performer but nothing more. Nothing special about its legs or gross

Coco is doing really great OS.

[John Marston]

Just now, Mojoguy said:

Coco is doing really great OS.

 

 

referring to domestic only

 

 

it is doing amazing in Mexico and China

 

 

jury is out in other countries though

[ThomasNicole]

21 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

 

Now you are just trying to make TLJ look good even if it makes no sense.

If Thursday night previews showings didn't exist, those people WOULD have seen it on Friday.

You're also trying to make TLJ look poorly received by audiences even with an A cinemascore [same TFA and R1 have], just because a group of people is making noise on internet.

 

Right, the movie drop 68% this weekend, but to compensate, will probably stay almost flat next weekend, so i think everyone need to wait at least the next 2 or 3 weeks before saying the movie will be more frontloaded than R1 based on a questionable mixed WOM

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

No, you can only use Moviepass for yourself...yeah, the theory is, that the parents now both go to movies more (so don't feel like going again to take kids) and also now feel like they don't feel like paying more per each ticket for their kid to go than it would cost them plus dealing with extra inconvenience.

 

For example, mom and dad have Moviepass and go on 2 movie date nights/month...and they have 3 kids.  Are they putting out $31.50 to see a kid movie at $10.50/kid ticket when they know they only pay $4.50/ticket per movie for themselves?...PLUS they have to wait to use their Moviepass and bet on getting 5 tickets at the theater pre-show, now getting either worse seats as a group or paying for both Moviepass and separate adult tickets if they want to get good seats...

 

It's like a double whammy on the parent vs just saying "well, we'll wait for it on Netflix/DVD/Amazon/Redbox...I mean, this way I don't have to buy popcorn or deal with kids, either"...

 

EDIT: If someone doesn't figure out a FamilyPass, this is gonna bite the industry in the butt more rapidly than they expect...

Which really sucks since animation is the only high grossing kind of film that can still pull off leggy runs with consistency today. Would hate to see them start performing like live action ones in terms of legs. 

[Mojoguy]

referring to domestic only

And I was only referring to OS

Neither of us are "wrong".