Tuesday Numbers (Dec 26): TLJ 27.7, Jumanji: 17.1, PP3 7.4, TGS 5.1 (actuals/estimates)

[IronJimbo]

3 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

Impossible, I was told that there would be sharp declines starting today. 

Empire taking the small victories where he can. Remember this is a sub 700m film now.

[Brainbug]

7 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Well, this is a 3% increase.

Of cource this is a satisfying number but why are people exaggerating??

A simple look at the same day in 2006 will tell you that it is far from an anomally for movies to increase on Boxing Day.

There are actually even some far bigger increases and you can even argue that Tuesday is seen far more as a movies day now than it was then no matter If theaters are doing discounts today.

So yeah, it is a nice number but don't make it seem as though this is something outstanding. I bet there was only a minority actually who argued that there will be a decline today.

 

One thing we just cant account for is that TLJ posts WAY bigger numbers than any 2006 movie. If you have a movie grossing 2M on CD, well than a jump of nearly 100% to 3,8M is hardly difficult (Charlottes Web). And then you have a WOM-hit like Pursuit of Happiness doing 7,7M on CD and then decreasing on the 26th by 8%.

 

So id say with the fact that TLJ pulls numbers of another dimension compared to any 2006 movie, it jumping on Tuesday is very good.

Edited December 27, 2017 by Brainbug

[baumer]

I guess I just don't understand why everyone is so surprised with Jumanji's performance.  I am not saying this because I think I'm a better predictor than any of you because I generally suck these days. But Jumanji had hit written all over it.  It had two of the biggest stars in North America appearing in a family film with a built in audience at Christmas time.  How was this not a recipe for success?  The trailers killed it every time they played in the summer and fall and there really wasn't that much in the way of family competition.  Sure, TLJ was supposed to create a vaccuum in which all other films got sucked into but there's always room for multiple films to do well at Christmas.  I didn't call 200+ million but I did see it doing north of 150.  Seemed pretty safe to me.    

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Christmas baumer said:

I guess I just don't understand why everyone is so surprised with Jumanji's performance.  I am not saying this because I think I'm a better predictor than any of you because I generally suck these days. But Jumanji had hit written all over it.  It had two of the biggest stars in North America appearing in a family film with a built in audience at Christmas time.  How was this not a recipe for success?  The trailers killed it every time they played in the summer and fall and there really wasn't that much in the way of family competition.  Sure, TLJ was supposed to create a vaccuum in which all other films got sucked into but there's always room for multiple films to do well at Christmas.  I didn't call 200+ million but I did see it doing north of 150.  Seemed pretty safe to me.    

 

Jumanji is the only other family movie option for many people apart from TLJ. I agree, it should have been obvious that it was practically a given that it would be succesfull. But i woundt have expected it to do THAT well.

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Christmas baumer said:

I guess I just don't understand why everyone is so surprised with Jumanji's performance.....

..

Honestly they probably saw the trailer and thought though they were ruining Jumanji by turning it into a full blown  comedy. Then wrote it off immediately.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

Honestly they probably saw the trailer and thought though they were ruining Jumanji by turning it into a full blown  comedy. Then wrote it off immediately.

 

The original...was a full blown comedy....i doubt anyone took that movies sillyness serious for 1 second (and i like it still, btw).

[aabattery]

4 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

I guess I just don't understand why everyone is so surprised with Jumanji's performance.  I am not saying this because I think I'm a better predictor than any of you because I generally suck these days. But Jumanji had hit written all over it.  It had two of the biggest stars in North America appearing in a family film with a built in audience at Christmas time.  How was this not a recipe for success?  The trailers killed it every time they played in the summer and fall and there really wasn't that much in the way of family competition.  Sure, TLJ was supposed to create a vaccuum in which all other films got sucked into but there's always room for multiple films to do well at Christmas.  I didn't call 200+ million but I did see it doing north of 150.  Seemed pretty safe to me.    

 

I think I was pretty low on it but I'm not really surprised it's doing well, just kinda surprised at how well it's doing. I never would have picked it to have such a good shot of going past NATM. Really curious to see how high it can go.

 

Also I'm trash at predicting most of the time anyway, so getting this one wrong is just another day at the forums for me

[baumer]

And there's been plenty of people on here shouting to anyone that will listen that the 26th has always been a bigger movie going day than the 25th.  Go look at the last 10 years of Boxing Day's.  Most films in the top ten increase.  

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

The original...was a full blown comedy....i doubt anyone took that movies sillyness serious for 1 second (and i like it still, btw).

Huh really, it scared me and I took it seriously. I watched it when I was very young though I guess..

[Brainbug]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

Huh really, it scared me and I took it seriously. I watched it when I was very young though I guess..

I give you that, some images can be quite scary for younger people. But from an adullt point of view, its just ridiculous

[MCKillswitch123]

Good numbers for pretty much everything. May not seem that great for Jumanji, but a 17M Tuesday is ridiculous at the end of the day.

 

For research purposes, is Pitch Perfect 3's official Thursday previews number 2.1 or 2.3?

Edited December 27, 2017 by MCKillswitch123

[Poseidon]

22 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

One thing we just cant account for is that TLJ posts WAY bigger numbers than any 2006 movie. If you have a movie grossing 2M on CD, well than a jump of nearly 100% to 3,8M is hardly difficult (Charlottes Web). And then you have a WOM-hit like Pursuit of Happiness doing 7,7M on CD and then decreasing on the 26th by 8%.

 

So id say with the fact that TLJ pulls numbers of another dimension compared to any 2006 movie, it jumping on Tuesday is very good.

 

So will we pull the 2006-card every time now, it leaves TLJ in a better light?

We have 2 SW Movies in the last 2 years, both of them had fairly compareable performances. Muted CD and increses on 26th.

TLJ trails in both departments.

It's a huge hit, but it fails to hit even the lower expectations on a daily base now. It's not a fun run to follow. That's it. 
It certainly got hit harder by competition, than any other SW-Movie in the last 2 years. 
Other distributors should have a good look and shouldn't be afraid.

Edited December 27, 2017 by Poseidon

[Valonqar]

Jumanji has it all:

 

Two legit boxoffice draws Dwayne + Kevin. Kevin's isn't getting enough credit cause he's a comedian and they tend to be overlooked as draws in favor of action stars, unless Sandler and Murphy in their prime, but he's as solid opener as a rock, pun intended. The closest we have to Sandler/Murphy right now. 

 

Good reviews. Want Tomato Law, this is your movie. 

 

Genuinely funny previews. The key to everything. You cna have stars but if previews are dud, no cigar.

 

Great WOM. They came, they saw, they spread the word. 

 

Nostalgia. This can go either way but the combo of the above + nostalgia can produce breakouts

 

BD drop or not, this exceeded all expectations.

 

Also, don't care that TLJ jump is small, it's a jump so something to celebrate. 

 

 

[Brainbug]

Just now, Poseidon said:

 

So will we pull the 2006-card every time now, it leaves TLJ in a better light?

 

No. It should be clear by now that the 2006 movies cant be used as a comparison for Last Jedi. My post was just an answer to another poster who used the 2006 calendar.

We have 2 SW Movies in the last 2 years, both of them had fairly compareable performances. Muted CD and increses on 26th.

TLJ trails in both departments.

 

Nobody says otherwise. However, an increase is an increase, while a WOM-hit like Jumanji decreased. Therefore, its positive. Ofc not as positive as the last two SW movies, but still.

It's not a fun run to follow.

 

I disagree. It has been a rollercoster, very entertaining to follow, though having loved the movie, i for sure wanted better numbers

 

[Poseidon]

So PP3 increased even bigger with bad WOM, I don't get what your Point is exactly. 
Both Jumanji and SW had completely different runs before, and now we start comparing them? Judging on a daily base doesn't make any sense Jumanji having a 109% increase on CD, while SW only went up in the 50s. 

 

No, not every increase at the BO is something positive. 

Edited December 27, 2017 by Poseidon

[estebanJ]

Looks like TLJ will not join the list of films having a $30m DOM day after passing $250m DOM. Rogue 1 did it last year.

 

At this point, TLJ probably doesn't reach $600m DOM.

[weresweresweres]

So far jumanji  actuals were better than estimations  so maybe 17.5+mln is possible.

 

[That One Girl]

I remember about a year or so ago (when Jumanji was slated for July), I predicted it to hit 190M and thought it was a pretty bold prediction.

 

It might go 110M higher than that.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, estebanJ said:

Looks like TLJ will not join the list of films having a $30m DOM day after passing $250m DOM. Rogue 1 did it last year.

 

At this point, TLJ probably doesn't reach $600m DOM.

 

Yes it will

[Brainbug]

5 minutes ago, estebanJ said:

Looks like TLJ will not join the list of films having a $30m DOM day after passing $250m DOM. Rogue 1 did it last year.

 

At this point, TLJ probably doesn't reach $600m DOM.

 

Tell me, whats your prediction for this weekends hold? You know that TLJ has a pretty good chance of an under 20% drop, right?