Tuesday Numbers (Dec 26): TLJ 27.7, Jumanji: 17.1, PP3 7.4, TGS 5.1 (actuals/estimates)

[baumer]

So Jumanji has now surpassed what many thought it would make in total. 

[RandomCat]

4 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

Just for shits and giggles I modeled TLJ through the holidays using the "Top-12" drops and gains from 2006 (from BOM). 

 

The deviations in my model are that I used a steeper drop for today's number to account for yesterday's Discount Tuesday effect, and I sometimes round in tenths of millions place to save myself some work.

 

Date	Weekday	Daily	% change
Through 25-Dec		395.6
26-Dec	Tuesday	28.2
27-Dec	Wednesday	22.6	-20%
28-Dec	Thursday	21.4	-5%
29-Dec	Friday	25.9	21%
30-Dec	Saturday	27.5	6%
31-Dec	Sunday	18.1	-34%	WKND-3	71.6
1-Jan	Monday	21.8	20%	WKND-4	93.3
2-Jan	Tuesday	10.9	-50%
3-Jan	Wednesday	7.3	-33%
4-Jan	Thursday	6.9	-5%
5-Jan	Friday	16.0	131%
6-Jan	Saturday	21.6	35%
7-Jan	Sunday	12.5	-42%	WKND	50.1
CUME		636.4

 

From that point in its run forward, RO made another $55M or so.  If TLJ can match that, it would get to $691M, so within spitting distance.

I don't think Sunday will be that hard of a drop. I also don't think Next week Tue will drop that hard because of Discount Tue, and Wednesday too, I think will be softer.

 

Though I think Monday will drop, not increase.

 

I've been playing a bit with the Wed/Wed changes instead of fiddling with the dailies, not that it's much better honestly. but I don't think next week sees a drop below 10K.

 

 

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

The OW comparisons between TLJ and AOU are a bit unfair though, since AOU's Saturday was deflated (that Mayweather fight thing). That was also the reason it dropped only 11% on Sunday, enjoying some spillover, but the OW could have touched 195M+ imo if it wasnt for that boxing match attracting so many viewers.

but we are also using a multiplier that follows that deflated ow. so for the sake of our calcs that's the only option we have. if ow were 195 i don't think 460 dom would change. we would just be using 2.35x multi instead of 2.40x.

[Fancyarcher]

54 minutes ago, DealWithIt said:

It’s more just mind numbingly stupid right now. Fanboys hurt the movie didn’t line up with the theories they plucked from nowhere desperate for this to be a disappointment at the box office is already old and tired. 

People just overreacted like they always did, instead of waiting for the numbers. Star Wars seems to be rebounding okay. Yes, it's going to drop from TFA (that was expected though), and WOM is clearly not great, but it's still going to be a successful film in the end, and make Disney millions. 

Edited December 27, 2017 by Fancyarcher

[LinksterAC]

6 minutes ago, Sand-omJC said:

I don't think Sunday will be that hard of a drop. I also don't think Next week Tue will drop that hard because of Discount Tue, and Wednesday too, I think will be softer.

 

Though I think Monday will drop, not increase.

 

I've been playing a bit with the Wed/Wed changes instead of fiddling with the dailies, not that it's much better honestly. but I don't think next week sees a drop below 10K.

 

 

There are definitely some major differences this model doesn't capture.

 

For example, I suspect that, on average, school holidays are shifted a week further back this year than they were in 2006.  My high school was back in session on the 2nd of January that year, but in 2018 they don't start the new year until January 8.

 

[Fancyarcher]

11 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

So Jumanji has now surpassed what many thought it would make in total. 

It definitely exceeded my expectations, and I expected Jumanji to do well, just not that well. It's doing fantastic business, which is awesome. 

[a2k]

 

 

 

[AndyK]

2 hours ago, REC said:

I'm honestly curious to see if it makes it over 650m DOM.  Everyone thought this movie would make 800m DOM a month ago, now it's probably going to come short of that.  The questions are how much and why.  That has nothing to do with bias for or against TLJ as a product it's just very curious that it seems to be coming under expectations.  Yes lots of details in the market and calendar conspire against it, but I think the key thing is that it's not overperforming against that backdrop when it had every ability to.

 

And correct me if I'm wrong we still don't have TLJ actuals from Tues.  I don't know what the real number is.  It's been off it's estimates lately.

My forcast was $650m and I thought I was overpredicting.

[Barnack]

35 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

However, AOTC is a good comparison, because it also had mixed (or even bad) WOM and even theatralic moviegoing beeing much more popular in 2002, its run wasnt very good for a SW movie.

AOTC was a low bar to use, because of how terrible the movie was, it's run was terrible for a SW movie, it is still the only SW movie not ending number one of the year domestic.

[RandomCat]

2 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

There are definitely some major differences this model doesn't capture.

 

For example, I suspect that, on average, school holidays are shifted a week further back this year than they were in 2006.  My high school was back in session on the 2nd of January that year, but in 2018 they don't start the new year until January 8.

 

It's interesting to see where this goes. but if today is 22M that's a good sign. after the 7th, I just used a blanket model, so it'll be way off track, so I'll accept it will probably be wrong. (like I have it clocking in around 741, which definitely feels too high) So I'll like to tinker with that, but I'm not really comfortable trying to predict what it's weekdays after the winter breaks will look like just yet.

[Jonwo]

3 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

It definitely exceeded my expectations, and I expected Jumanji to do well, just not that well. It's doing fantastic business, which is awesome. 

I can't wait to see it. Does prove once again like Sing last year that you can compete with Star Wars. Wicked could do very well in 2019, I wonder how Ready Player One would have done against Star Wars had WB kept the release date or moved it back a few days. Ironically we still got a Spielberg movie at Christmas, it was The Post rather than RPO

Edited December 27, 2017 by Jonwo

[RandomCat]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

 

 

Actuals @TheForceuser707

[Barnack]

3 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

It definitely exceeded my expectations, and I expected Jumanji to do well, just not that well. It's doing fantastic business, which is awesome. 

Not sure I get this board enthusiasm about yet an other 90s remake doing great business ?

 

Is it some sympathies toward Sony and just to a point anything not disney/Universal doing great is awesome for keeping some form of competition alive ?

[redfirebird2008]

27 minutes ago, The Fast and the Furiosa said:

Key number here is going to be this Friday. Not sure it can do +20% as RO only went up about 6%. Not impossible though

 

Looking at 2011, nobody would expect Rogue One to drop 22% on 3rd weekend. Point being these Star Wars movies are operating at a much higher level than the old films we are comparing. I am not convinced Last Jedi will stay flat on 3rd weekend. Maybe around 10% drop. 

[LonePirate]

Looks like the adult skewing films took hefty hits yesterday as some/many people returned to work after the holiday. All the Money in the World is definitely not this year’s version of The Aviator.

[a2k]

 

COCO should averag 3m over next 6 days (Wed-Mon, despite a Wed drop) and do 185+ by New Years Monday.

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Looking at 2011, nobody would expect Rogue One to drop 22% on 3rd weekend. Point being these Star Wars movies are operating at a much higher level than the old films we are comparing. I am not convinced Last Jedi will stay flat on 3rd weekend. Maybe around 10% drop. 

60-65 is a 9-16% drop from 71.5. good benchmark imo.

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Not sure I get this board enthusiasm about yet an other 90s remake doing great business ?

 

Is it some sympathies toward Sony and just to a point anything not disney/Universal doing great is awesome for keeping some form of competition alive ?

To be fair, Jumanji is a sequel and not a remake. Considering they've only had one big hit this year in Spider-Man Homecoming, I'm sure they'll thrilled with how Jumanji is doing

[Fancyarcher]

8 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I can't wait to see it. Does prove once again like Sing last year that you can compete with Star Wars. Wicked could do very well in 2019, I wonder how Ready Player One would have done against Star Wars had WB kept the release date or moved it back a few days. Ironically we still got a Spielberg movie at Christmas, it was The Post rather than RPO

Wicked should be big in 2019, unless it's bad. 

 

Ready Player One probably would have suffered some slight box office if it had been released in December, since it's not exactly a film that appeals to families like say Jumanji does. Moving it to the March was the smart thing to do. 

6 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Not sure I get this board enthusiasm about yet an other 90s remake doing great business ?

 

Is it some sympathies toward Sony and just to a point anything not disney/Universal doing great is awesome for keeping some form of competition alive ?

Most people predicted around 150m for Jumanji. The fact that it broke-out like it did, is doing potential NATM type numbers, and could go as high as 300m, is what surprised a lot of people. Plus it's a big hit for Sony. 

Edited December 27, 2017 by Fancyarcher

[YM!]

7 minutes ago, Barnack said:

AOTC was a low bar to use, because of how terrible the movie was, it's run was terrible for a SW movie, it is still the only SW movie not ending number one of the year domestic.

Clone Wars