baumer Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 hours ago, JonathanLB said: $22M is a monster number, not an "ok number." Anywhere above $20M is excellent. I know that people get hung up on nerdy box office stuff, but look, you post a $22M WEDNESDAY in your second week and theaters are packed. As I said, my theater sold out multiple 7 p.m. showings including an IMAX full of $20 tickets. You can nerd out over multiples all you want and that's just fantastic but the movie will make $400 million after opening weekend when all is said and done, and I suspect quite a bit higher than that as these numbers prove it has a very good chance to sink Titanic (again). There are only 27 other movies in history that have made $400 million total, let alone after the 2nd biggest opening weekend in history. We can all dick around with nerdy multiples all we want, but a 6x multiple off a $10M opening weekend is still a piece of shit. It's still an amount of money so pathetic that TLJ nearly doubled that on opening day alone. It just has made me shake my head and laugh a bit, in a "not seeing the forest for the trees" kind of way. But yeah let's just yawn our way through one of the biggest box office runs ever, because "legs lol." Alright. In real news, TLJ is on course to have difficulty finishing worse than 3rd on the all time best third weekend charts. So while it only ranked 13th on second weekends, despite an unfavorable calendar also impeding its third weekend, it should easily take 3rd best on the all time chart for its third weekend. THAT is real. And it is impressive. There's no doubt that SW is judged on a different plane that other films. But for me personally, I've never questioned the strength of the total. It's awesome no matter if it lands at 630 or 700. If the film had opened to less than it did, then a final in the 650-700 range would be terrific. So no one, well at least not me, is claiming that the total of 650-700 is shit. It's just we, or I, expected it to do have a normal Christmas multiplier of at least 3.2 if not 3.3. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avatree Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 jumanji is the only number I care about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 29 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said: Source please! Maoyan tracking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TommyA10 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 18 minutes ago, IronJimbo said: By the end of the second Wednesday, TLJ $445m TFA $629m and on the Wednesday, TLJ $22m TFA $28m TFA ended up with $937m ((22/28) * (937-629)) + 445 = 687 So if TLJ follows the same drops as TFA it will make $687m Don't think 700m is possible now. Also the legs haven't been as good as TFA so far so don't see why they would follow TFA now. $610m my prediction. TLJ will have longer holidays through January (Winter break started later this year in case you forgot). Also, The Revenant was a relatively big hit, which actually dethroned TFA. Is there anything of that size on the horizon in January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 hours ago, IronJimbo said: By the end of the second Wednesday, TLJ $445m TFA $629m and on the Wednesday, TLJ $22m TFA $28m TFA ended up with $937m ((22/28) * (937-629)) + 445 = 687 So if TLJ follows the same drops as TFA it will make $687m Don't think 700m is possible now. Also the legs haven't been as good as TFA so far so don't see why they would follow TFA now. $610m my prediction. You're forgetting that TLJ will have the first week of January with schools still out where as TFA didn't have that. The calendar is different this time around. So the same legs as TFA is not realistic as TLJ will have a much bigger January 1st week. 610 is way too low, if it follows my theory correctly. I think 650 is the floor. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 hours ago, IronJimbo said: Please don't use confusing language you'll lead new users astray. Avatar is the box office champion of the world, TFA is a regional champion. We're obviously talking about North American box office here, not world wide. So don't try to manipulate the conversation and confuse people. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, Brainbug said: We're talking about a domestic number here. The term "Box office champ" for TFA makes more than just a lot of sense. Remember, TFA CRUSHED Titanic and Avatar in the US you do realise World Wide includes Domestic right? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avatree Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, TommyA10 said: TLJ will have longer holidays through January (Winter break started later this year in case you forgot). Also, The Revenant was a relatively big hit, which actually dethroned TFA. Is there anything of that size on the horizon in January? Jumanji..? Which will be considerably bigger than the revenant + is a more direct competitor + closer release date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 hours ago, fmpro said: Maoyan tracking Not everyone knows what that is. You might have to explain it so others know what you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 hours ago, IronJimbo said: you do realise World Wide includes Domestic right? You do realize it's okay to talk about just the domestic total, right? 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanLB Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 15 minutes ago, Brainbug said: Ill admit, i laughed. Its true as well. I understand your point of view, of course, nearly all the numbers that have been posted by The Last Jedi are objectively mindblowing. Its just that many here had higher hopes for its holds and eventual DOM total. And there is absolutely, positively nothing wrong with that! I mean I'll be the first to say, do you think I came here and was freakin' stoked to hear Deadline's Friday number was way high and it kept falling to 25.5 Rth to $24.whatever actual? No, I sure wasn't. I found that number disappointing to say the least. I found the Christmas Day number as Baumer said (sorry buddy I'm paraphrasing you colorfully HAHA) to be a real piece of shit. But that being said, imagine my astonishment when I learned today, two days later, that it was the 2nd best Christmas Day gross ever? I guess I just realized, wow, I'm being a little bit mean here. I mean it's ok to have higher expectations, it's ok to be bummed out because you were kinda thinking how much fun it would be to see a $775M domestic gross. It's human nature, it's all about expectations. We can find a way to be disappointed over anything. If someone told me I won a Bugatti Veyron and then in pulls a Ferrari 360, I'm like where the fuck is my Bugatti? What is this piece of shit?! LOL, but hopefully if I have any sense of perspective I can pull back and say, huh, yeah I guess a nice new Ferrari is still, you know, one of the best cars in the world, relatively speaking. That's the box office. I have found a way to be disappointed by the most dumbfounding things where I start wondering, I mean, I don't take drugs, right? Was... was I on drugs? I actually remember being annoyed two years ago that TFA didn't hit $50M on Christmas Day, I think because of Deadline or something like that, some source, saying it was headed there. So then when it was $49M I thought what the fuck is that? Get out of here with that $49M nonsense! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said: you do realise World Wide includes Domestic right? Yes, but come out of your bubble full of blue people and realize, that we are just now in a Wednesday thread, discussing the meanings of a DOMESTIC number, not a WORLDWIDe number. We're discussing the DOMESTIC run of TLJ, NOT the Worlwide one. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TommyA10 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said: There's no doubt that SW is judged on a different plane that other films. But for me personally, I've never questioned the strength of the total. It's awesome no matter if it lands at 630 or 700. If the film had opened to less than it did, then a final in the 650-700 range would be terrific. So no one, well at least not me, is claiming that the total of 650-700 is shit. It's just we, or I, expected it to do have a normal Christmas multiplier of at least 3.2 if not 3.3. Multiplier isn't about WOM exclusively, though. CW had amazing WOM and had a pathetic multiplier, even for summer standards. TFA multiplier was more a product of its insane event status, than some amazing WOM, IMO. It got people who don't even go to the movies, to see it, which softened the drops and gave it amazing legs. I'm not arguing TFA WOM here. All I'm saying is, maybe it's unreasonable to expect 3.0x minimum multiplier for December releases just because it's december. Sort of like, it's no longer reasonable to expect soft openings in December, just because... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meriodejaneiro Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Going a bit off topic, but closely related to TLJ numbers till dec 31st ... ...the Top3 yearly dom for studios are #1 $3,001B Disney 2016 #2 $2,445B Universal 2015 #3 $2,280B Disney 2015 This year, as of dec. 24th, Disney stands at #4 $2,241B. As of 27th (with 22M wed estimates) Disney's year stands at $2,324B (added TLJ, Coco and Thor mon+thu #s too). Disney is 121M away from reaching #2 all time yearly domestic. Could TLJ + Coco + Thor make 121M through thursday to sunday? I was thinking not but would be very close, and writing this, i realized the 31st is a weak boxoffice day, so even staying flat from last weekend (71M) it wouldn't make it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narniadis Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Anything over 20m is a fantastic hold. 22m if it stays is down right great. Hopefully Jumanji did not fall too hard either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I just think it would be better if people said "domestic champion" instead of "box office champion", less confusion I think. It's fine though just carry on as we were. Like I said if TLJ continues with TFA's legs from this point, it will make $687m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 11 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said: You're forgetting that TLJ will have the first week of January with schools still out where as TFA didn't have that. The calendar is different this time around. So the same legs as TFA is not realistic as TLJ will have a much bigger January 1st week. 610 is way too low, if it follows my theory correctly. I think 650 is the floor. Another thing that might help TLJ's (and Jumanjis) late legs i think is the barren January. Apart from a surprise Oscar expansion from things like The Post theres nothing. Its a wasteland. Could boost all the holdovers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narniadis Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said: Going a bit off topic, but closely related to TLJ numbers till dec 31st ... ...the Top3 yearly dom for studios are #1 $3,001B Disney 2016 #2 $2,445B Universal 2015 #3 $2,280B Disney 2015 This year, as of dec. 24th, Disney stands at #4 $2,241B. As of 27th (with 22M wed estimates) Disney's year stands at $2,324B (added TLJ, Coco and Thor mon+thu #s too). Disney is 121M away from reaching #2 all time yearly domestic. Could TLJ + Coco + Thor make 121M through thursday to sunday? I was thinking not but would be very close, and writing this, i realized the 31st is a weak boxoffice day, so even staying flat from last weekend (71M) it wouldn't make it. 2015 was such a strong year for both Disney and Universal. I am shocked that Disney comes as close as it Does when you consider that they released just 8 films this year. Speaks to the strength of their brands at the present moment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Christmas baumer said: Not everyone knows what that is. You might have to explain it so others know what you mean. Yeah its a chinese livetracking site where you can follow a new update every 30 min. You can see the daily BO and usually 2 weeks ahead in presales. And this shows that SW8 is at around 1,6 mill yuan with 7 days to go Thor 3 was a little less and JL was around 1/2. Both movies made 100 mill+$ I dont expect SW8 to beat either in total but a few days ago a few here had the impression that this would do around 24 mill total in China. A 80% drop from the last one.. Im just stating that its impossible. How much its going to make will depend on WOM and competition in 2nd weekend. But my very early GUESS is 70-80 mill. Maybe more 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narniadis Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said: I just think it would be better if people said "domestic champion" instead of "box office champion", less confusion I think. It's fine though just carry on as we were. Like I said if TLJ continues with TFA's legs from this point, it will make $687m. And I think you are an arrogant fanboy but it doesn't change the fact that this is a Domestic focused forum and Avatar is a 2nd class citizen here. 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
