New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[IronJimbo]

J-Day could actually happen this weekend.

 

God bless you Jamanji.

[Brainbug]

TLJ decreasing/having a drop in the 20-30% range from last weekend shoudnt actually be that surprising. Remember, Rogue One did the same last year, dropping 22% while every other movie increased. TLJ has already earned nearly 500M, it burned a LOT of demand. Jumanji has just started its run, so a hefty increase seems reasonable given the great WOM.

[IronJimbo]

8 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

TLJ decreasing/having a drop in the 20-30% range from last weekend shoudnt actually be that surprising. Remember, Rogue One did the same last year, dropping 22% while every other movie increased. TLJ has already earned nearly 500M, it burned a LOT of demand. Jumanji has just started its run, so a hefty increase seems reasonable given the great WOM.

1) What final gross do you expect?

2) Will Jumanji overtake TLJ in daily numbers?

 

[MCKillswitch123]

Is it honestly possible that TLJ drops from Thursday to Friday? That would be pretty odd, to say the least, but I've seen it all from this run so far. We have gotten to the point where 600M+ files as a disappointment, holy shit   TLJ is still a huge hit nonetheless, but, yeah, Ultron syndrome struck again. And even Ultron came only within 100M of the 1st Avengers flick worldwide, while TLJ is gonna drop at least 500M from The Force Awakens. Ouch. It's definitely not looking all that bright for Jurassic World 2, if history says anything.

 

Jumanji on the other hand......... Jesus Christ. Dwayne is God. Dwayne is fucking God. Granted, Kevin Hart and Jack Black are also helping, but I can guess that few people would have driven the movie as much as The Rock. Think about this: Jumanji 2 is going to outgross Justice League, Logan, Fast & Furious 8, Coco and Despicable Me 3, and will probably pass 300 million, giving it a small chance to beat Thor: Ragnarok. Maybe It. And maybe even Spider-Man: Homecoming, to become Sony's highest grossing film of 2017. Just when you thought that there were no more surprises left for the end of the year, here comes this beast. Wow.

 

Pitch Perfect 3, The Greatest Showman and Ferdinand also rebounding from the disastrous starts they've had with these increases. All of them - definitely more so PP3 - might still have a small chance at clearing 100M DOM. Doesn't change the fact that TGS and Ferdinand are probably gonna end up as bombs, though, but hey, that's kinda Fox's fault for overbudgeting the crap out of those two films.

 

And, btw, Phantom Thread's PTA, while not great, is a nice little return from last week's letdown as well. Also, congrats to both Daddy's Home 2 and MOTOE for crossing 100M DOM. November might be the best non-Summer month of the year to open your movies, it seems (a whopping SIX 100M+ DOM makers, the more out of any month in 2017, and one other super profitable wide release).

[Brainbug]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

1) What final gross do you expect?

2) Will Jumanji overtake TLJ in daily numbers?

 

 

I think TLJ's run remains pretty much unpredictable for the next week. Once we have the numbers for the first (non-holiday) weekend in January for TLJ, we'll have a much much better picture on where it will land than now. At the moment, id say everything between 620 and 680M is possible.

 

Jumanji overtaking TLJ is not impossible in the slightest. Like @EmpireCity said, on weekdays TLJ wont be overtaken, but given that Jumanji plays heavily to familys, its weekend (and especially Saturday) numbers will be within reach this weekend of TLJ and its entirely possible that the fight for next weekend Number 1 will be extremely close.

[Valonqar]

I'm seeing Jumanji ads calling it "the funniest movie of the year and critics agree" everywhere. I'm not seeing TLJ ads. 

[Poseidon]

TLJ is Star Wars, the Mother of family entertainment, in comparison, doesn't play heavily to families?

 

I think both movies are quite even, with the difference, that SW has an aditional Plus in the Over 50-Crowd, that Jumanji probably doesn't have.

Edited December 30, 2017 by Poseidon

[Brainbug]

Just now, Valonqar said:

I'm seeing Jumanji ads calling it "the funniest movie of the year and critics agree" everywhere. I'm not seeing TLJ ads. 

 

That sentence is impossible in a year where The Bye Bye Man came out.

[mikee11]

Just now, Poseidon said:

TLJ is Star Wars, the Mother of family entertainment, in comparison, doesn't play heavily to families?

the movie is long , dark pondering pretentious bollocks 

[Brainbug]

Just now, Poseidon said:

TLJ is Star Wars, the Mother of family entertainment, in comparison, doesn't play heavily to families?

 

Ofc its playing to familys. Jumanji otoh is playing almost only to familys.

 

TLJ also isnt as kid-friendly as TFA, so many familys who watched TLJ may dont go a 2nd time but choose Jumanji instead as it is pretty much the only film in this entire December holiday season besides Coco and Ferdinand that targets familys. Also, the runtime of 2 1/2 hours is hurting TLJ a bit, not only in the showings available, but kids often cant just sit still for nearly 3 hours. Parents know that.

[JonathanLB]

5 minutes ago, mikee11 said:

the movie is long , dark pondering pretentious bollocks 

Oh come on Jumanji wasn’t that long

[Poseidon]

4 minutes ago, mikee11 said:

the movie is long , dark pondering pretentious bollocks 

 

And you think you can have a $650m movie without families?
TLJ is as 4Q as it can get.

TFA was only 15 minutes shorter. The Avengers 9 Minutes. Does that really make a difference?

Were we talking about Dead mans Chest failing to fulfill its full potential in 2006, because it was too long? 

[John Marston]

19.1?

 

 

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi(DIS), 4,232 theaters (0)/ $19.1M (-23%) Fri/ 3-day: $55M  (-23%)/4-day: $72.3MTotal:$537M/ Wk 3

[JohnnyGossamer]

http://birthmoviesdeath.com/2017/12/29/bright-and-its-hypothetical-opening-weekend-box-office

 

Wtf?

 

I imagine some of more knowledgeable here will have fun with some of the extrapolations made in this article. Apologies if this was already posted and/or discussed here.

Edited December 30, 2017 by JohnnyGossamer

[Valonqar]

I'm waiting for God of Asgard. 

 

TLJ is doing what every second SW movie has done. They'll never buck the trend. These trilogies work like a clock. I bet that RJ's trilogy will follow the same pattern too even though it isn't the Saga.

 

It's an enormous success but it's expected while Jumanji came out of the left field and, like any surprise, is stealing expected success's thunder. 

Edited December 30, 2017 by Valonqar

[Poseidon]

6 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Ofc its playing to familys. Jumanji otoh is playing almost only to familys.

 

TLJ also isnt as kid-friendly as TFA, so many familys who watched TLJ may dont go a 2nd time but choose Jumanji instead as it is pretty much the only film in this entire December holiday season besides Coco and Ferdinand that targets familys. Also, the runtime of 2 1/2 hours is hurting TLJ a bit, not only in the showings available, but kids often cant just sit still for nearly 3 hours. Parents know that.

 

Jumanji surely doesn't play to families only with Kevin Hart and The Rock as the leads. 

 

The Original Jumanji was a Familymovie with 55% of audiences under 25.

Jumanji 2017 on the other hand is at 54% over 25. It's younger than SW, but that's due to the Over 50 crowd missing, as I mentioned before. 
It's a typical 4Q-Movie as well.

[Gamora]

5 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Ofc its playing to familys. Jumanji otoh is playing almost only to familys.

 

TLJ also isnt as kid-friendly as TFA, so many familys who watched TLJ may dont go a 2nd time but choose Jumanji instead as it is pretty much the only film in this entire December holiday season besides Coco and Ferdinand that targets familys. Also, the runtime of 2 1/2 hours is hurting TLJ a bit, not only in the showings available, but kids often cant just sit still for nearly 3 hours. Parents know that.

So damn true and I wish all parents knew this or thought about it before bringing their children. When I went to a showing for it last week a kid sitting behind me a few seats over was kicking my row a bit several times throughout and it eventually escalated into him putting his legs over the back of the seat and flailing them about while he sat on his father's lap. Then he started kicking my row again and I had to get up and ask him to stop kicking my seat. He stopped for the most part after that, but still did it a couple of times again but not as badly. But then I saw it again today in IMAX and a kid so small I couldn't even see the top of his head over the seat in front of me was quiet the whole time, so it does depend on the child.

[estebanJ]

10 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

Oh come on Jumanji wasn’t that long

 

It wasn't long, but it wasn't very good either. Just kind of moves from one messy set piece to another. Not bad, but not as inventive as the 95 original.

 

Can't explain why it's taken off the way it has.

Edited December 30, 2017 by estebanJ

[Taruseth]

32 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

2) Will Jumanji overtake TLJ in daily numbers?

 

I think next weekend Jumanji will overtake TLJ, especially on Saturday and Sunday.

 

 

[estebanJ]

51 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Is it honestly possible that TLJ drops from Thursday to Friday? That would be pretty odd, to say the least, but I've seen it all from this run so far. We have gotten to the point where 600M+ files as a disappointment, holy shit   TLJ is still a huge hit nonetheless, but, yeah, Ultron syndrome struck again. And even Ultron came only within 100M of the 1st Avengers flick worldwide, while TLJ is gonna drop at least 500M from The Force Awakens. Ouch.

 

I'd put more emphasis on the "huge hit nonetheless" part than the "Ouch" part. TLJ is surging past $500m DOM, and as you imply $600m is just about a given, and it is still beating darling Jumanji every day. That's very impressive regardless of what came before. E.g., in 1980, Empire Strikes Back did "only" 2/3 of the DOM box office of Star Wars, but nobody called it a disappointment. When the first film is out-of-this-world, it's unrealistic to expect the sequel to be in the same league.

 

I mean, if Avatar 2 does 2 Billion WW, will we say "ouch" because it's $700m less than what Avatar did? I hope not. 

 

 

Edited December 30, 2017 by estebanJ