New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[m3racer123]

6 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

The Incredibles wasn't great but given the family's arc it did seem weird how long they waited for a sequel.

[langer]

Here's what TFA and R1 made after the Monday coming off New Year:

 

TFA =  186M$

R1 = 91M$

 

IF TLJ keeps the 65% of TFA it was roughly been doing in the last week, it will finish around 655M$, or just under 3X multi, which we all know is really bad for any December release regardless of OW.  I have a feeling that TLJ will barely keep up with R1 and finish around 635-640M for a 2,9X multi and just above The Day the Earth Stood Still (2,6X), Golden Compass (2,7X) and Exodus Gods & Kings (2,7X). 

 

Hopefully EP 9 will rebound and fare better. 

[Valonqar]

26 minutes ago, Coco Bottle said:

 

Not to mention the book it's based on is average at best. Yes I've read Mortal Engines (I also read Predator's Gold and Infernal Devices. I did not read A Darkling Plain).

This. I read the books too. Average and less and less readable as they go. 

[Hatebox]

14 minutes ago, m3racer123 said:

I know for some that's crazy talk, but I thought as much upon release. Fantastic start when it shows the family enduring civilian life, then they get to the island and it sort of just chugs along. Don't @ me!

[Harpospoke]

1 hour ago, Chewy said:

 

Sure but winning the year? Do we really expect it to be bigger than Dory or is this just the loonies talking?

 

I'm always wrong about Pixar so I'm really asking here

I'm taking a lesson from Blade Runner on this one.   I would have sworn "everyone" was a BR fan from the internet.    Turns out it was the same number of fans for the sequel as the first one and the internet made it look bigger than it was.

 

So I hear a lot about The Incredibles over the years on the internet.   I'm looking for the sequel to do about what the first one did.   Still a good result but hardly going to win the year.

[a2k]

55 minutes ago, langer said:

Here's what TFA and R1 made after the Monday coming off New Year:

 

TFA =  186M$

R1 = 91M$

 

IF TLJ keeps the 65% of TFA it was roughly been doing in the last week, it will finish around 655M$, or just under 3X multi, which we all know is really bad for any December release regardless of OW.  I have a feeling that TLJ will barely keep up with R1 and finish around 635-640M for a 2,9X multi and just above The Day the Earth Stood Still (2,6X), Golden Compass (2,7X) and Exodus Gods & Kings (2,7X). 

 

Hopefully EP 9 will rebound and fare better. 

As the low-end I can see sub TA dom:

 

531.5 cume after 14.3 Monday

7.0 (-51%)

4.6 (-34%)

4.3 (-6.5%)

5.8 (+35%)

9.4 (+62%)

6.3 (-33%) 21.5 weekend (-59%)

= 568.9 cume

 

RO had a 22 weekend and added 55 more (2.5x)

If after a 21.5 weekend TLJ adds 53.75 more (also 2.5x),

gets to 568.9 + 53.75 = 622.65 (and with continued lesser trending than RO it could well fail to add that 2.5x the 4th weekend to it's cume)

 

Atm I think sub-630 is more likely than 630+.

 

Edited January 2, 2018 by a2knet
Changed numbers from sub-620 to sub-TA

[redfirebird2008]

5 minutes ago, a2knet said:

As the low-end I can see sub 620 dom:

 

531.9 cume after 14.5 Monday

7.0 (-52%)

4.6 (-34%)

4.1 (-10%)

5.5 (+34%)

9.0 (+64%)

6.0 (-33%) 20.5 weekend (-61%)

= 658.1 cume

 

RO had a 22 weekend and added 55 more (2.5x)

If after a 20.5 weekend TLJ adds 51.25 more (also 2.5x),

gets to 658.1 + 51.25 = 619.35 (and with continued lesser trending than RO it could well fail to add that 2.5x the 4th weekend to it's cume)

 

Atm I think sub-630 is more likely than 630+.

 

 

I assume you mean 568.1 after the upcoming weekend. I'm not willing to call sub-630 yet, but I think sub-640 is a lot more likely than 650+ at this point. Sub-630 is probably more likely than 650+ too.

Edited January 2, 2018 by redfirebird2008

[hw64]

Down from $68.4m to $67.2m to $66.9m to $66.8m in the space of a few hours.

[AndyChrono]

5 minutes ago, hw64 said:

Down from $68.4m to $67.2m to $66.9m to $66.8m in the space of a few hours.

Also down from 800m+ to beating Avatar to 750m to 700m to 680m to sinking Titanic to 650m to 640m to maybe losing to Avengers in the space of a couple weeks.

[redfirebird2008]

So the 4-day actual is about 1.97% ahead of Rogue One's 4-day actual.

[Lordmandeep]

16 minutes ago, hw64 said:

Down from $68.4m to $67.2m to $66.9m to $66.8m in the space of a few hours.

 

 

Must have been a lot of refunds in Puerto Rico it seems

 

 

[AndyChrono]

With actuals in, TLJ has made $531.5m in 18 days through NY weekend.

TFA made $750.2m in 18 days through the same weekend which was 80.1% of it's final gross.

RO made $440.9m in 18 days through the same weekend which was 82.8% of it's final gross.

 

Hence, if TLJ holds like TFA from here on out, it ends up at $663.5m.

If it holds like RO from here on out, it ends up at $641.9m.

 

However, it has not been holding as well as these films thus far so it looks like $640m is probably the upper bound at this point. It's also worth noting that TLJ's Monday was actually lower than both RO's actual NYD on Sunday as well as it's observed NYD on Monday. If it matches RO's daily grosses exactly from here on out, then it adds another $91.3m and ends up at $622.8m and barely loses to Avengers.

 

Bottomline: Titanic's Bronze Heart goes on. Jurassic World's Fourth Kingdom will not fall (yet). The real race now is whether TLJ can beat Avengers to get into the Top 5 all-time domestic.

[Lordmandeep]

I am just waiting for the tone-deaf posts saying the film was preordained to do less than 650 million due to sequel fatigue and WOM had no effect. 

Edited January 2, 2018 by Lordmandeep

[hw64]

1 minute ago, AndyChrono said:

If it holds like RO from here on out, it ends up at $641.9m.

If TLJ holds like Rogue One from Monday onwards, it makes $82m more throughout the rest of its run and gets to $613.5m.

 

Your calculation is based on TLJ making a certain static percentage of Rogue One's daily grosses from here on out.

[redfirebird2008]

5 minutes ago, AndyChrono said:

With actuals in, TLJ has made $531.5m in 18 days through NY weekend.

TFA made $750.2m in 18 days through the same weekend which was 80.1% of it's final gross.

RO made $440.9m in 18 days through the same weekend which was 82.8% of it's final gross.

 

Hence, if TLJ holds like TFA from here on out, it ends up at $663.5m.

If it holds like RO from here on out, it ends up at $641.9m.

 

However, it has not been holding as well as these films thus far so it looks like $640m is probably the upper bound at this point. It's also worth noting that TLJ's Monday was actually lower than both RO's actual NYD on Sunday as well as it's observed NYD on Monday. If it matches RO's daily grosses exactly from here on out, then it adds another $91.3m and ends up at $622.8m and barely loses to Avengers.

 

Bottomline: Titanic's Bronze Heart goes on. Jurassic World's Fourth Kingdom will not fall (yet). The real race now is whether TLJ can beat Avengers to get into the Top 5 all-time domestic.

 

At this point I think getting within $300m of TFA would be a good result. That means $636.67m domestic. This number is by no means locked to happen based on what we've seen from the Friday before Christmas all the way to now.

[Lordmandeep]

1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

At this point I think getting within $300m of TFA would be a good result. That means $636.67m domestic. This number is by no means locked to happen based on what we've seen from the Friday before Christmas all the way to now.

 

 

I think the issue is opening to total result is not the best. 

[jb007]

Whatever amount TLJ does below $700M i.e. A Multiplier of 3.2, I feel is the impact of negative buzz. At $630m, the impact would be $70M i.e 10% of its potential.

[MaxAggressor]

https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/948297769587912704

 

STAR WARS held off JUMANJI $66.8M v $66.2M over the 4-day holiday, however next weekend will likely end THE LAST JEDI's reign.

[EmpireCity]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

Family Moviepass comes out, and I guarantee The Incredibles goes over $400M...probably no matter what quality the movie is...if it doesn't come out in time for this movie, then I think it will be under $400M no matter how good it is...I really think these next few months will start showing what a game changer those enormous number of folks with Moviepasses now are...

 

It's like what Netflix did to Blockbuster...and we're in the early adopters stage, but moving rapidly to the mainstream stage...

 

 

 

Theaters are already highly annoyed with MoviePass and many are moving to have their own subscription service.  

 

MoviePass also isn't financially sustainable and it will sooner than later run into problems with the subscription price after they have burned through all of their cash.  Right now it is being used as more of a research and data tracking component and once they have enough data I wouldn't look for it to last or to be considerably different than it is now.  

[AndyChrono]

11 minutes ago, hw64 said:

If TLJ holds like Rogue One from Monday onwards, it makes $82m more throughout the rest of its run and gets to $613.5m.

 

Your calculation is based on TLJ making a certain static percentage of Rogue One's daily grosses from here on out.

I should have said pacing instead of holds but you are correct.