New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[BoilingHotCoffee]

why did i just notice that the title hasn't been updated since friday

[Deathlife]

15 minutes ago, The Last AndyLL said:

LOL no.  The surveys that can be manipulated are showing one thing and the surveys that are hard to manipulate are showing something else.

 

Let's get real.  A movie disliked by 1/2 the people that saw it do not end up in the top 10 of all time DOM box office.

 

I will still go IMDb and co because the user scores overtime balance themselves out. We’ve all seen trolls pre-emptively give some movies (like Nolan movies) high scores and seen the scores fall as more people see the movies. So I’m not going to suddenly discount all of them because Star Wars is involved.

 

We don’t know how the audience are divided because there’s no fool proof way of actually knowing audience exact viewing habits. We can only by the movie’s multiplier and audience scores.

 

If we are going by the box office total alone, then movies like BvS or even Man of Steel weren’t divisive at all.

 

[AndyLL]

15 minutes ago, Deathlife said:

I will still go IMDb and co because the user scores overtime balance themselves out. We’ve all seen trolls pre-emptively give some movies (like Nolan movies) high scores and seen the scores fall as more people see the movies. So I’m not going to suddenly discount all of them because Star Wars is involved.

Unfortunately for you, and anyone else that liked the IMDB or RT audience ratings the genie can not be put back into the bottle.

 

In the past CMB and Nolan fans did spam the audience ratings.  But those tended to be real users that just automatically up voted their franchises and down voted the ones they didn't like.  As you said those ratings tend to balance out. ( although I've never been a big believer in Fanboy driven franchise ratings )

 

However now someone has taken the spam bots that have been around for awhile and made them work with RT and IMDB.  And that code is being shared.  I've noticed about 4-5 different Bots putting in RT ratings with 2 new ones in the last week.  

 

Jumanji is a newer movie that sold more tickets on Tuesday .  There was a little more than 2 pages of RT audience ratings added on the 2nd.  TLJ had over 35 pages... about 3/4 of them were fake 0-1 ratings.  The farther we move away from OW the real users putting in ratings will decrease but the Bots will stay constant.  I expect the audience score drop into the 30s before its over.

 

These Bots will now be used on any movie a group of people hate.  Wait until the next movie like Ghostbusters comes out.  It'll be a bloodbath in the audience ratings.

 

 

 

[AndyLL]

@The Greatest Rth... any updates or are you still sleeping off NYE. ( or still sleeping with? )

[a2k]

5 minutes ago, The Last AndyLL said:

@The Greatest Rth... any updates or are you still sleeping off NYE. ( or still sleeping with? )

I feel J will keep the double digit streak alive and go 10+ while TLJ will be 8+.

[stripe]

44 minutes ago, a2knet said:

I feel J will keep the double digit streak alive and go 10+ while TLJ will be 8+.

 

Both numbers would be nice for me. I just want to see TLJ breaking 650M and J reaching 300M.

[Taruseth]

1 hour ago, a2knet said:

I feel J will keep the double digit streak alive and go 10+ while TLJ will be 8+.

That would be drops of less than 38.4% and less than 44% normally all films drop more than 50% on the 2nd it is a Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday.

So I think Jumanji defying that rule a bit with 9+M and TLJ following it with 6.5M might be more realistic.

[a2k]

7 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

That would be drops of less than 38.4% and less than 44% normally all films drop more than 50% on the 2nd it is a Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday.

So I think Jumanji defying that rule a bit with 9+M and TLJ following it with 6.5M might be more realistic.

I went with higher Tue number because the holiday schedules is delayed this year. 2006 had 50% Tuesday drops but now there's discount Tuesday. Thinking 35-40% drop could be in order for J and 40-45% for TLJ 

Edited January 3, 2018 by a2knet

[Taruseth]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

I went with higher Tue number because the holiday schedules is delayed this year. 2006 had 50% Tuesday drops but now there's discount Tuesday. Thinking 35-40% drops could be in order for both J and TLJ 

Right I forgot about Discount Tuesday, but I still think TLJ might drop more. So jumanji really might stay above 10M, but I would be surprised if TLJ would stay above 8M.

[Rthmessiah]

13 hours ago, filmlover said:

Discount Tuesday didn't exist in 2006/2007.

It did in Canada (on/off since 80's) and very limited USA (much more in recent times). I did some posts about it and effect many years ago

 

 

13 hours ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Which is exactly the point he made. Stronger Tuesday hold followed by a harsher Wednesday drop. We shall see how it goes. With less holiday boost, Rogue One dropped 60% Tuesday and 32% Wednesday. Discount Tuesday certainly existed a year ago.

 

[Rthmessiah]

Tues

J 10.2, TLJ 7.9

[Taruseth]

1 minute ago, The Greatest Rth said:

Tues

J 10.2, TLJ 7.9

So Jumanji really over 10M and TLJ under 8M  

[weresweresweres]

Last year in Tuesday Sing had 6.1 mln, and after that day it added another 83 mln, so Jumanji with over 10 mln, should do around 125mln and beat Thor (313+mln).

[George Parr]

Mhm, TFA made 7.97m on that Tuesday. 7.9m would give TLJ actually a better week-to-week drop than TFA. Is that due to a larger discount Tuesday effect, a bigger holiday effect, or all or none of the above?

[Taruseth]

Just now, George Parr said:

Mhm, TFA made 7.97m on that Tuesday. 7.9m would give TLJ actually a better week-to-week drop than TFA. Is that due to a larger discount Tuesday effect, a bigger holiday effect, or all or none of the above?

I guess both. I think it might drop 30% tomorrow.

[George Parr]

11 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

I guess both. I think it might drop 30% tomorrow.

Sounds like the right vicinity. Rogue One dropped 32%, TFA just 22%.

 

Should give it something like 85m for the week, third best ever, but getting closer and closer to falling behind JW, which should happen by next week.

Edited January 3, 2018 by George Parr

[a2k]

37.1% drop for J and 44.7% for TLJ