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grim22

New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Rthmessiah,

19.8  19.5 
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Posted by EmpireCity,

The Last Jedi should hit right at or slightly above the Sunday estimate.  Same thing with Jumanji.  
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EmpireCity Blockbuster

EmpireCity

Posted
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1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Yes, primarily incredible WOM. 

 

Agreed, it had a novelty in 3D that nobody had ever seen before and gave it monster legs.  

 

If it doesn't have 3D, then a whole lot of that gross doesn't exist.  

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Brainbug Global Phenomenon

Brainbug

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Just now, bamajagala said:

If 19.5 is sat and we know 19.06 was Fri than Disney is projecting 13.8 for nye and 13.1 for nyd. That doesn't make much sense. 

 

They are beeing very conservative, likely because they projected 32M for CD and it grossed 27M. That way now, the number can only go up really with actuals.

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redfirebird2008 Global Phenomenon

redfirebird2008

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Just now, The Last Panda said:

The biggest factor is its a sequel to a zeitgeist movie, which historically have shorter legs and lower (but still large) OWs.  Look at recent examples like AoU and TDKR.  The fact that TFA was even more massive than TA or TDK just means that drops bound to be more inflated (especially since an IM3 like spinoff RO already came as a follow up for those high off TFA).

 

I have said that all along. No one would listen though. Best case scenario is Spidey 2 and that one still dropped 7.5%. The WOM on TLJ is nowhere near Spidey 2. 

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CJohn Cinematic Universe

CJohn

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1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Agreed, it had a novelty in 3D that nobody had ever seen before and gave it monster legs.  

 

If it doesn't have 3D, then a whole lot of that gross doesn't exist.  

I absolutely agree with this but I won't go into another debate about Avatar. Without 3D there is no incredible WOM and therefore no record breaking gross or amazing legs.

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mikee11 Indie Sensation

mikee11

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 12/29/2017 at 10:46 PM, JB33 said:

What? A drop on Friday Monday for TLJ? No that's not happening. I wonder if Deadline is purposely doing this to manufacture positive headlines (maybe pushed by Disney/Lucasfilm) amid all the backlash and negativity.

:ph34r:

Edited by mikee11
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Brainbug Global Phenomenon

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1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

Titanic

 

IronJimbo, we all appretiate your love for James Cameron, but it has been discussed to death why Titanic became the monster it became. One big factor besides the incredible WOM was certainly a nearly competition-free Winter Season. Early 1998 was barren as F*ck.

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REC Indie Sensation

REC

Posted
Posted

I wonder whether someone likes TLJ how that breaks out by age, and how that person generally ranks the other SW films.

 

I only know one person who thought it was OK.  My circle of friends and family its generally negative or at a minimum nitpicky (without much desire to see it again).

 

In my case I'm mid-40's, and my friends are late 30's or in their 40's.  We are all of the opinion that we liked the original SW movies to varying degrees, didn't like the prequels pretty much at all, and are mixed on the new ones (some liked TFA or RO, some didn't etc).  We are nearly universally negative on TLJ.

 

It makes me wonder if liking TLJ is a generational affair.  If you're in your 20's and grew up with the prequels, maybe that canto bight segment is a fun meaningful adventure to you.

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Brainbug Global Phenomenon

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4 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Agreed, it had a novelty in 3D that nobody had ever seen before and gave it monster legs.  

 

If it doesn't have 3D, then a whole lot of that gross doesn't exist.  

 

This.

 

Without 3D, Avatar was "just" an epic sci-fi-war movie with blue people. Still would have been extremely succesfull, no doubt, but not in the same way.

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DAR Global Phenomenon

DAR

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4 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

IronJimbo, we all appretiate your love for James Cameron, but it has been discussed to death why Titanic became the monster it became. One big factor besides the incredible WOM was certainly a nearly competition-free Winter Season. Early 1998 was barren as F*ck.

I mean it was almost beaten another DiCaprio movie 

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redfirebird2008 Global Phenomenon

redfirebird2008

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1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Agreed, it had a novelty in 3D that nobody had ever seen before and gave it monster legs.  

 

If it doesn't have 3D, then a whole lot of that gross doesn't exist.  

 

I am aware of its 3D boost. Avatar people at BOM hated me and a few others for pointing out it had less than 80 million admissions. 

 

Setting aside 3D, Cameron is a great action director and Avatar has a strong third act. I think that played into WOM as much as anything else. 

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