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grim22

New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Rthmessiah,

19.8  19.5 
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Posted by EmpireCity,

The Last Jedi should hit right at or slightly above the Sunday estimate.  Same thing with Jumanji.  
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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, bamajagala said:

If 19.5 is sat and we know 19.06 was Fri than Disney is projecting 13.8 for nye and 13.1 for nyd. That doesn't make much sense. 

On the NYD projection...

 

TLJ has been rocking 10ams and falling flat at 10pms...but how many folks are gonna be up early for 10ams on 1/1?  And most folks work the next day, so 10pms and later should still suck...so if you go from 4 shows a day rocking it (like on 12/30) to 3 shows a day rocking it (12/31 and 1/1), it's not a big leap to think NYD might not be better than NYE (which will also have 3 rocking shows, but at different times, with 7pms starting to suck and 10pms being dead)...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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The Panda Global Phenomenon

The Panda

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2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I have said that all along. No one would listen though. Best case scenario is Spidey 2 and that one still dropped 7.5%. The WOM on TLJ is nowhere near Spidey 2. 

Beyond WOM, Star Wars sequels have historically had large drop offs.  The problem was with our expectations (mine included) than TLJ.

 

100m tickets is absolutely insane.  Doesn’t matter how good your sequel is, it’s ridiculous to think it’ll get close to matching that.  The fact people are going to be saying mid-600m is a disappointing run is crazy.  TFA’s numbers were so huge I don’t know if people are able to picture just how many tickets TLJ is actually selling.

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That One Girl Global Phenomenon

That One Girl

Posted
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4 minutes ago, Apollo2xx said:

 

!

 

Very good job.  Well, technically it won't be first on BOM's chart, but looking at how the films were scheduled, they shouldn't really count.

Edited by That One Guy
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Poseidon Box Office Gold

Poseidon

Posted
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12 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Agreed, it had a novelty in 3D that nobody had ever seen before and gave it monster legs.  

 

If it doesn't have 3D, then a whole lot of that gross doesn't exist.  

If Star Wars wouldn't have had the groundbreaking Visuals in 1977, we wouldn't be talking about TLJ now.

That's a strange argument. 

There is no if in Boxoffice. We can only work with reality and 3D was Camerons Vision, that was part of the success. 

Edited by Poseidon
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Brainbug Global Phenomenon

Brainbug

Posted
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@The Last Panda

 

Star Wars:
The Last Jedi
 

Domestic Total Est. Tickets: 54,172,700

 

 

Thats with only this Fridays numer included from thsi weekend. I know, i know, BOM tickets sold mechanic is more than just flawed, but it gives a genereally good idea.

 

A lot of people are seeing TLJ.

Edited by Brainbug
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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

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1 minute ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

TLJ keeps dropping, this should worry Disney,  karma for demanding biggest screens for three weeks 

Agreed...

 

I wouldn't be surprised that when the contracts end, if every 12 and below drops it to 1 screen and some smaller theaters already start the full drop...

 

I also wouldn't be surprised if less theaters take this deal for ix...or if Disney is forced to reduce the terms...

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John Marston Global Phenomenon

John Marston

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4 minutes ago, The Last Panda said:

Beyond WOM, Star Wars sequels have historically had large drop offs.  The problem was with our expectations (mine included) than TLJ.

 

100m tickets is absolutely insane.  Doesn’t matter how good your sequel is, it’s ridiculous to think it’ll get close to matching that.  The fact people are going to be saying mid-600m is a disappointing run is crazy.  TFA’s numbers were so huge I don’t know if people are able to picture just how many tickets TLJ is actually selling.

Doesn't change the fact it's drops have been bad and keep going down instead of up 

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EmpireCity Blockbuster

EmpireCity

Posted
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1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I am aware of its 3D boost. Avatar people at BOM hated me and a few others for pointing out it had less than 80 million admissions. 

 

Setting aside 3D, Cameron is a great action director and Avatar has a strong third act. I think that played into WOM as much as anything else. 

I've had the exact opposite anecdotal situation as that, most everyone I know hates the paint by numbers third act of Avatar with the mustache twirling villain and likes all the visual stuff that came before it.  Same thing with Titanic where people often stop watching once the iceberg hits. 

 

This was for initial release on Avatar and home video release on Titanic.  

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DAR Global Phenomenon

DAR

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4 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

TLJ keeps dropping, this should worry Disney,  karma for demanding biggest screens for three weeks 

I suppose they could be worried.  Then again they’ve already made their money back on the Lucasfilm deal 

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