New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[McNerdy]

Great for Jumanji! Also very good for TLJ imo. Already at #8 domestic of all time and crossed 1 billion worldwide. No matter how I look at it, it's an amazing achievement.

[Rebeccas]

Stocks can take a dive if things don’t meet expectations even if money is still pouring in. 

[NoLegMan]

Has Disney even been losing stock? anyone selling Disney right now would be the dumbest person on the planet.

[DAR]

Just now, NoLegMan said:

Has Disney even been losing stock? anyone selling Disney right now would be the dumbest person on the planet.

There might be uncertainty in the theme park area.

[Jonwo]

Jumanji is a lot of fun and a good family film. I do think while Sony will likely want a sequel, that's going to be very hard to replicate a second time.

[hw64]

2 minutes ago, NoLegMan said:

Has Disney even been losing stock? anyone selling Disney right now would be the dumbest person on the planet.

Disney's stock price has been on a steady decline since Tuesday, December 19.

[NoLegMan]

Just now, DAR said:

There might be uncertainty in the theme park area.

That could be bad for the future, but after the Fox deal, and the star wars films, and it's new streaming service. These aren't resons to sell. But you do make a really good point.

[DAR]

Looking at the to 10 domestic Disney now has 6 of the top 10 films. 

[NoLegMan]

2 minutes ago, hw64 said:

Disney's stock price has been on a steady decline since Tuesday, December 19.

Stock prices increase and decrease all the time. When I see large drops maybe I'll agree with your point. But I seriously doubt Disney is losing stock because of Star Wars.

[jimisawesome]

1 minute ago, DAR said:

Thing is only box office nerds like us are going to care about wom or multipliers.  Whereas the GA is going to look at the grosses and see a 600/1b film and rightly think it’s a success 

What does this matter?  The GA only hears about BO for the 30 seconds every monday when the News has their Hollywood minute unless the movie is just mowing down records or cultural zeitgeist.  Right now if you ask the GA that is going to the theater what the biggest movie is and they will say it has to be Jumanji.  That is the movie that is selling out shows 4 hours before screening.  Box office only matters to us nerds on sites like this and the studios.  Even when studios use box office in their marketing they never use this movie made 140 million they say its the number 1 movie. 

 

TLJ is not a flop or a bomb.  We don't have disney internal numbers but I doubt anyone lost a job over what the movie will do.  It could be the case that someone in the c suite had projections of a run like this and got a raise because they were able to lock down premium theaters for so long.  But, when it comes to the box office and what the expectations were on this website it is a bit of a disappointment.  That is not entirely or even mostly on the movie, it's the insane numbers that get thrown around here for Marvel/SW films (maybe other franchises but I notice most with these two). 

 

 

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, DAR said:

Looking at the to 10 domestic Disney now has 6 of the top 10 films. 

[PNF2187]

35 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

Given how good Coco's Sundays have been, I expect that Sunday number to go up by 10% or so. I know there's been a lot of competition, but it's still an odd estimate.

That Sunday number has to be a deliberate underestimation. Somehow a movie with terrific Sunday holds has a 65% drop on Sunday when everything else in the top 10 has a sub-40% drop. Not buying it. Plus, Happy Feet (with a nearly identical holiday run) only dropped 30% on New Year's Eve. I wouldn't be surprised if that Sunday number ended up doubling in the actuals.

 

21 minutes ago, NoLegMan said:

I've seen the arguments for and against. Putting my opinion aside of this film. Based on it's numbers and it's assumed profit margin after it finishes. Disney will not consider this movie a disappointment. That is just the reality. Regardless of what we feel about the movie. Sure it may not get it's 3x multiplier it's not the be all end all. I do think it's very dishonest to say this movie was a box office disappointment. 

Yep. TLJ might not be performing as high as people expected, but it's still expected to earn a $500M profit so I doubt it'll be considered a dissapointment.

[hw64]

3 minutes ago, NoLegMan said:

Stock prices increase and decrease all the time. When I see large drops maybe I'll agree with your point. But I seriously doubt Disney is losing stock because of Star Wars.

For the record, I wasn't making any point. You asked if Disney stock had been losing value, and I checked and saw that yes, it had.

[Taruseth]

This December was the highest grossing ever with Based on estimates $1,320.6M (2015: $1,305.0) and the 5th highest month ever, if the actuals go up more than $300K combined than it will be the 4th highest month ever. The total year ($11,064.3M) still is down compared to both 2016 ($11,377.5M => -2.8%) and 2015 ($11,129.4M => -0.6%)

 

And Disney expects a $13.11M Monday (-2.45%) that would be atrocious and mean Avengers might be high end of the possible gross range ($93.1 after Monday to top Avengers).

And Sony a $16.43M Monday (+24%) that seems reasonable.

 

[CJohn]

36 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

FandangoNow posted the bestsellers of 2017.  Here it is:

 

https://www.fandangonow.com/list/bestsellers-2017?cmp=EM_FNOW_20171231_FNOW_MRKT_TSLT_RTA_YearInReview

 

Top 5 is Moana, Wonder Woman, Rogue One, Sing, and Guardians of the Galaxy 2.  Bestselling film that made less than 100M is John Wick 2.

Moana and Sing are 2016 movies

[PNF2187]

8 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Moana and Sing are 2016 movies

Moana, Rogue One, Sing all had their home video releases in early 2017.

Edited December 31, 2017 by PNF2187

[weresweresweres]

 

Over Justice League worldwide?

Edited December 31, 2017 by weresweresweres

[IronJimbo]

If jumanji had darth vader it would have that 700m on lock

[Rumpot]

32 minutes ago, NoLegMan said:

Stock prices increase and decrease all the time. When I see large drops maybe I'll agree with your point. But I seriously doubt Disney is losing stock because of Star Wars.

Of course it is. That's direct revenue for Disney 100m+ is certainly enough to effect earnings for a quarter.  More than that though the reception/hype around a huge movie like this determines subsequent DVD sales, merchandise sales, popularity of related theme park attractions, etc.  Disney earnings calls have management also using Star Wars to paint a rosy future for the company and specifically the 2019 rollout of their streaming offering for which they will roll out a star wars show as well.

 

We will never know Disney's expectation specifically but the market (stock market and also modalities like HSX) seemed to expect a little bit more at baseline.  The market is continuously repricing what they feel Disney's brands have in them when it comes to future earnings.  

 

As for Disney stock the last couple years the biggest drag has been ESPN and cordcutting, not parks

 

Edited December 31, 2017 by Rumpot

[baumer]

This seems pretty light on spoilers. I think there's some minor spoilers in it but it's more to do with the divisive audience reaction. 

 

https://www.cinemablend.com/news/1746160/how-one-disney-rep-feels-about-the-audience-reaction-to-star-wars-the-last-jedi?utm_campaign=cb-fbk-m-intl-d0f0c129&utm_content=1526&utm_source=fbk&utm_term=cb-fbk-m-intl-d0f0c129.5cbu63yx