New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[scabab]

DP

Edited December 31, 2017 by scabab

[scabab]

6 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

This seems pretty light on spoilers. I think there's some minor spoilers in it but it's more to do with the divisive audience reaction. 

 

https://www.cinemablend.com/news/1746160/how-one-disney-rep-feels-about-the-audience-reaction-to-star-wars-the-last-jedi?utm_campaign=cb-fbk-m-intl-d0f0c129&utm_content=1526&utm_source=fbk&utm_term=cb-fbk-m-intl-d0f0c129.5cbu63yx

Hey TLJ still has a chance at $700 million right? There's still a chance right? You were so sure after all.

[fabiopazzo2]

So 1.3/1.4B for TLJ?

[baumer]

6 minutes ago, scabab said:

Hey TLJ still has a chance at $700 million right? There's still a chance right? You were so sure after all.

After it opened to 220 I thought it would 750-800.

 

And where were you when it opened that high? Oh right, you weren't here.

[Porthos]

 

What has happened to Scott? 

 

(NOTE:  Scott is NOT talking about most people with complaints about TLJ, but those trashy clickbaity sites twisting Mark Hamill's comments out of contortion and then mocking him when he is being forced to clarify them)

[Brainbug]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

What has happened to Scott? 

 

(NOTE:  Scott is NOT talking about most people with complaints about TLJ, but those trashy clickbaity sites twisting Mark Hamill's comments out of contortion and then mocking him when he is being forced to clarify them)

 

Scott Mendelson...the voice of reason??

[SLAM!]

So I have a few thoughts and comments on this weekend.

 

Now I see why so many films are released during this time- the holiday timeframe is a great place for great holds. There really are some great holds all across the board.

 

Now, I am more interested, invested, and excited in the smaller-ish films that aren't necessarily winning the weekend charts week after week, so me ignoring films like Star Wars and Jumanji is actually a compliment to their success. Especially to Jumanji, which will double its production budget in the domestic market alone.

 

Pitch Perfect 3. While it was one of the few films to receive a negative percentage, people are still seeing it. Word of mouth is a bit mixed, so I would not be surprised if the trilogy-ender struggles to double its budget in the domestic market. But my prediction is that it will manage to do that in the end.

 

(That is my personal line of success: doubling the budget without having to rely on other international markets. So I always look for films to cross that line.)

 

I believe that there is a muted interest in The Greatest Showman. That 73 percent increase is pretty telling to me. I just don't think there is enough interest in it. Jumanji beating the bologna out of both Pitch Perfect 3 and The Greatest Showman seems to mean that there might actually be more people paying attention to Rotten Tomatoes scores than we may have thought. Hopefully The Greatest Showman can stay in the game, but I doubt it.

 

Ferdinand is so-so. I think its budget is absolutely way too high.

 

From what I've heard, there is still interest in Coco, but the film was released at a holiday time when the family market is being stretched extremely thin between a myriad of films.

 

My top ten prediction for next week is that Insidious and The Shape of Water take the spots of Downsizing and Father Figures, and the rest will stay as is.

 

Speaking of Downsizing, if that film is one of the films that didn't manage to have a positive percentage, then that film will likely, and unfortunately, drop like a rock, both in theater count and in revenue.

 

I think Molly's Game did well for a film that only had 271 theaters. They'll probably try and expand in the coming weeks.

 

I, Tonya gained seven more theaters for a total of 49, yet the film had a significant increase. I see a surprise breakout incoming during the time of Oscar nominations and the Winter Olympics.

 

And last but not least, The Star petered out, but it did manage to double its budget in the domestic market alone. I  personally very happy for that, and I am very happy for the fellow Christian that spent many years pitching their idea for the film.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Fine actor? No.

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Scott Mendelson...the voice of reason??

Spoiler

I actually am one of the few on this board who genuinely likes Scott's takes for the most part.  He can be a bit too trolly for his own good, and his box office forcasts can be a bit on the broad side.  But he's a guy with logical takes and usually backs them up with sound arguments.

 

For that, I respect him.  When he's not being on the trolly side that is.

 

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Fine actor? No.

I think Mark Hamill is a vastly underrated one, yes.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

  Reveal hidden contents

I actually am one of the few on this board who genuinely likes Scott's takes for the most part.  He can be a bit too trolly for his own good, and his box office forcasts can be a bit on the broad side.  But he's a guy with logical takes and usually backs them up with sound arguments.

 

For that, I respect him.  When he's not being on the trolly side that is.

 

 

I give him that, hes the only author of box office articles i read from time to time.

[scabab]

14 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

After it opened to 220 I thought it would 750-800.

 

And where were you when it opened that high? Oh right, you weren't here.

Where was I? Hmmm I recall was it just a week ago or more? I said it had no chance at making $700 million and you said I was wrong "about everything".

 

So I suppose it is going to make $700 million right? Surely I wasn't right the whole time and you were the one who didn't have a clue. No that can't be it.

[JohnnyGossamer]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I think Mark Hamill is a vastly underrated one, yes.

Certainly an impeccable voice actor. But, struggling to think of a live action role in which I personally was very impressed. Opinions are just opinions though...

[DAR]

18 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

After it opened to 220 I thought it would 750-800.

 

And where were you when it opened that high? Oh right, you weren't here.

Hey he has to remind us at every turn.  Maybe his posting servo is stuck

[IronJimbo]

4 minutes ago, DAR said:

Hey he has to remind us at every turn.  Maybe his posting servo is stuck

Thats my job.

 

Hey guys this will beat Titanic right?

[MovieMan89]

Opening 65m higher than Rogue One and pacing only 3m ahead of it in its 3rd weekend is about the worst case scenario I think anyone could have possibly seen for TLJ's run after its opening. Even certain from day 1 that WOM would be mixed, I never thought it would drop off like that. 

 

Looks like my prediction of Jumanji overtaking TLJ today will probably pan out. 

Edited December 31, 2017 by MovieMan89

[Lordmandeep]

13 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Certainly an impeccable voice actor. But, struggling to think of a live action role in which I personally was very impressed. Opinions are just opinions though...

 

 

He is one of those actors that is largely defined by one role that he has played and for that he shall be likely always remembered by audiences.

[baumer]

19 minutes ago, scabab said:

Where was I? Hmmm I recall was it just a week ago or more? I said it had no chance at making $700 million and you said I was wrong "about everything".

 

So I suppose it is going to make $700 million right? Surely I wasn't right the whole time and you were the one who didn't have a clue. No that can't be it.

 

You were right and I was wrong. On Christmas Eve you said it would not hit 700 million and I disagree with you and quoted a line from the movie. Good call on your part and I thought the word of mouth would be a little bit better than it was to get it over the 700 million. So yes I admit that I was definitely wrong and you were definitely right and made a good call.

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Opening 65m higher than Rogue One and pacing only 3m ahead of it in its 3rd weekend is about the worst case scenario I think anyone could have possibly seen for TLJ's run after its opening. Even certain from day 1 that WOM would be mixed, I never thought it would drop off like that. 

 

Looks like my prediction of Jumanji overtaking TLJ today will probably pan out. 

Movie X: Makes 400m to 440m after its OW

Movie Y: Makes 375m after its OW

 

Yes, clearly one run is worse than the other. 

[mikee11]

37 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Scott Mendelson...the voice of reason??

No one is twisting Mark Hammil's words though, he looks depressed and is snarky at interviews. And he actually loves Luke Skywalker and Star Wars, unlike Harrison Ford

How are you supposed to take this out of context?

 

Scott is souless shill he's ever been, you're just wrong now

Edited December 31, 2017 by mikee11