New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[That One Girl]

50 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Give me a list of "bad" movies with over 90% on RT

 

Thor: Ragnarok

[JB33]

Who really cares about the scores? The box office speaks for itself post opening week. Still big numbers, just not great holds, meaning it could be much better.

[Porthos]

I want to swing back to a point @TwoMisfits made about the possibility of the SW franchise possibly following in the footsteps of the DCEU and eventually fall off a cliff.

 

There is a danger, sure.  Partially because nothing is certain.  Not even Avatar 2-5 smashing WW records (   you know who ). But also because there is an unquantifiable chunk of the fanbase which is pissed off right now.  And judging about how folks on the intrawebs love to nurse grudges, probably for quite a while.

 

But I still don't think it's as much of a danger as some fear.  Mostly because while the last two SW films have been.... less than sunshine and roses in their tone, I kinda doubt Ep 9 will follow the same pattern.  I mean, it might.  It might ape RotS more than RotJ for whatever reason.  If it does and it doesn't handle it near perfectly, there could be the danger of the schism widening.

 

But, I dunno.  Does J.J. Abrams have it in him to do a Darkness Triumphant ending ala RotS?  I mean... maybe?  The Cloverfield films weren't a running field of sunshine and puppies after all.  On the other hand, his blockbuster fare has been more traditionally four quadrant crowd pleasers.  Which makes me think even if it ends on a dourish note story wise, it'll be a thrill ride along the way. 

 

In a way, this is one of the reasons why I think while it'll open up far less than TLJ, Solo will have good legs and WOM (presuming it's competently made).  I just presume it'll be a much lighter tone than either Rogue One or The Last Jedi and thus be far more four quadrant appealing than either of those two.

 

Still, yeah.  If Ep 9 is the BvS as TLJ's is mooted to be MoS,  there might be a danger. 

Then again, trying to figure out exactly why folks as a group don't like a particular film is chancy in the best of times.  It becomes even more difficult trying to apply it to future scenarios.  

[Porthos]

Gonna split this off into another post, partially for reasons of length, but also because it is a slightly different subject.

 

As I think about it, in some ways the real reason BvS 'failed' is a bit complex. On the one hand, it doubled down on some of the most controversial complaints regarding tone and message.  On the other hand it did try to address some of the complaints levied at MoS.  Except it seems to have done in it in a ham-fisted and perhaps half-hearted way.  That ol' saw about execution at play.

 

Or, more simply, it could be that they learned the wrong lessons about folks complaints while doubling down on other complaints and turning in a movie that was looked to be a little bit of a mess thanks to REASONS.  That's... not a great combo. Like, at all.

 

So perhaps the absolute worst move Lucasfilm could make is try to address critics of TLJ's concerns without really doing it in the right way or understanding where the complaints are coming from.  A superficial attempt to appease people, in other words.

 

All in all, Lucasfilm should probably just make the films they want to make and let the chips fall where they may.  That's not to say they shouldn't listen to feedback.  But they should be very careful however in how they decide to act on that feedback.  That, perhaps more than any other is the lesson of both BvS and JL.

Edited January 1, 2018 by Porthos
grammar it is what

[TwoMisfits]

Maybe this article will help, even if it's from 2016...

 

A great movie probably is one where the critics and audience agree on its greatness, not one where only one side loves it:)...although this list amuses me for what critics loved...and for the record, having been in the movie seat getting a headache and motion sickness while bored, the critics were WAY out to lunch on the Blair Witch Snooze Project...an F movie that I obviously agree with the audience on, and not the critics:)...

https://screenrant.com/movies-critics-audience-split/

[grey ghost]

27 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I meant in any big film there are going to be that group that tries to bring down the score on user sites. So it mostly all evens out (i.e. film x might have a 85% without that group instead of an 80% while film y might have a 65% without that group instead of a 60%. Film x is still easily the better liked one. Now maybe TLJ had a more extreme case, but definitely not to the extent that the RT audience score plummeted 20%+ or something as a result. Far too many people just aren't a big fan. 

No, not every film has the same number of devout haters willing to give the film the lowest score possible.

 

According to user scores, TLJ is more disliked than TPM and AOTC.

 

Yet in every poll I've seen where you can't spam low scores for TLJ, TLJ ranks between the prequels and the OT.

 

 

Edited January 1, 2018 by grey ghost

[WrathOfHan]

8 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

70% tops?

 

What raw data tells you this?

The box office?  

 

It's pretty clear that the movie is either frontloaded like CW was or has mixed WOM. Given the amount of reactions I've seen on various sites, I'll lean towards the latter.

Edited January 1, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[That One Girl]

Your first mistake is arguing there’s an objective good or bad.

[grey ghost]

5 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Thor: Ragnarok

Highly debateable.

 

Any clear examples?

[That One Girl]

Just now, grey ghost said:

Highly debateable.

 

Any clear examples?

 

Dude, it’s highly debatable because there is no objective good or bad.

 

To me, Thor Ragnarok is not a good movie.  Most people would disagree with that statement, but I found its poor qualities outweighed the good ones.  You can’t try to argue with me that it’s objecively good.  That’s fucking ridiculous.

[Blaze Heatnix]

The Audience Score reviews on RT for TLJ are interesting.

 

I read some reviews from the first page. User gave it 5 stars and just wrote: "Brilliant!"

 

Another user gave it 5 stars and said: "I'm giving 5 stars because the movie doesn't deserve hate".

 

Another one gave 5 stars and said: "Excellent"

 

 

Now most of the negative reviews are really well detailed, well described and even list the flaws of the movie. I read 10 pages of reviews and the negative reviews are really well made. Some of them are actually very long. 

[Rebeccas]

I mean if Marvel vs DC stans can’t sink RT scores (and you know a particular group is fairly obsessed with RT)... 

[WrathOfHan]

A sub-3x from the holidays is fucking horrible no matter what way you spin it, especially when the last two movies in your franchise passed that mark with ease.

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

No, not every film has the same number of devout haters willing to give the film the lowest score possible.

 

According to user scores, TLJ is more disliked that TPM and AOTC.

 

Yet in every poll I've seen where you can't spam low scores for TLJ, TLJ ranks between the prequels and the OT.

Which further proves that reception is not great even outside of the "devout haters", because its between a trilogy that has a good reception overall and one that has a poor reception overall. The devout haters aren't the only reason there's a huge disparity between critical/audience reception. 

[grey ghost]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

The box office?  

 

It's pretty clear that the movie is either frontloaded like CW was or has mixed WOM. Given the amount of reactions I've seen on various sites, I'll lean towards the latter.

Sequels are much more frontloaded.

 

Especially with SW.

 

If TLJ falls in the 630-650 m range that pretty close to ESB and AOTC percentage drop.

[grey ghost]

3 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Dude, it’s highly debatable because there is no objective good or bad.

 

To me, Thor Ragnarok is not a good movie.  Most people would disagree with that statement, but I found its poor qualities outweighed the good ones.  You can’t try to argue with me that it’s objecively good.  That’s fucking ridiculous.

I DON'T LIKE BATMAN BEGINS.

 

THAT SHOULDN'T OVERSHADOW CRITICAL CONSENSUS.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, grey ghost said:

Sequels are much more frontloaded.

 

Especially with SW.

 

If TLJ falls in the 630-650 m range that pretty close to ESB and AOTC percentage drop.

ESB is an irrelevant comparison because of the nature of how ANH played (a true "first run" would be more like 220m not that 307m #) and saying it dropped on par with AOTC is hardly helping your argument since that's widely considered to be the worst film in the saga, and TLJ had the advantage of coming off a far better received predecessor than AOTC did. 

[grey ghost]

8 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Your first mistake is arguing there’s an objective good or bad.

That's not really what I'm arguing.

 

I'm arguing that critical consensus is a more reliable indicator of good and bad than any single, random opinion.

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

I DON'T LIKE BATMAN BEGINS.

 

THAT SHOULDN'T OVERSHADOW CRITICAL CONSENSUS.

 

Your own opinion should overshadow the collective opinions of other people.  If you don't like Batman Begins for your own subjective reasons, then it's clear you won't be able to change that unless you rewatch and reevaluate it, and your opinion should be the only opinion that matters to you.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

A sub-3x from the holidays is fucking horrible no matter what way you spin it, especially when the last two movies in your franchise passed that mark with ease.

C'mon.  One film opened up at 220 OW and another opened up at 155 OW.

 

Besides, with, IMO, five data points at most (TFA, R1, TLJ, RotK, and maaaaaaaaaaybe TTT), saying what a honest to goodness blockbuster 'should' do in the holiday season is damn near the textbook definition of begging the question.  Especially when two of those data points are from 14 years ago or more.