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Best Picture Predictions - 2018

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This seems like a truly eclectic year for film, one with a lot of potential for great films and a lot of potential for the award shows. I'm not sure if I've done predictions yet so I'll go ahead and post a Best Picture prediction now.

 

1. First Man

2. Widows

3. Mary, Queen of Scots

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

5. If Beale Street Could Talk

6. The Favourite

7. The Front Runner

8. Bad Times at the El Royale

9. Black Panther

10. Cheney

 

Annapurna films are sort of low on my list because, while they certainly have a knack for choosing good projects to distribute, they really haven't proved that they can launch their films in a way that can garner Academy attention. They certainly picked some of the hottest commodities of this year's race, but it's up to them to leaen from their mistakes. Also, Cheney is one of those that sounds great on paper but might be less enthralling on celluloid. I think that film might go the way of All The Money in the World -- chances for acting categories, with that being it.

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3 minutes ago, slambros said:

 

Annapurna films are sort of low on my list because, while they certainly have a knack for choosing good projects to distribute, they really haven't proved that they can launch their films in a way that can garner Academy attention. They certainly picked some of the hottest commodities of this year's race, but it's up to them to leaen from their mistakes. Also, Cheney is one of those that sounds great on paper but might be less enthralling on celluloid. I think that film might go the way of All The Money in the World -- chances for acting categories, with that being it.

Test screenings have been happening, and that's not the case.

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FULL PREDICTIONS MINUS FOREIGN/DOCU/SHORTS :Venom: 

 

Spoiler

 

Picture:

 

1. First Man

2. Cheney

3. The Favourite

4. Widows

5. A Star Is Born

6. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

7. Black Panther

8. If Beale Street Could Talk

9. On the Basis of Sex

10. Mary, Queen of Scots

Alt: BlacKkKlansman

 

Director:

 

1. Damien Chazelle, First Man

2. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

3. Steve McQueen, Widows

4. Adam McKay, Cheney

5. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Alt: Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

 

Actor:

 

1. Ryan Gosling, First Man

2. Christian Bale, Cheney

3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

5. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner

Alt: Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun

 

Actress:

 

1. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex

3. Toni Collette, Hereditary

4. Viola Davis, Widows

5. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Alt: Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2. Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk

3. Sam Rockwell, Cheney

4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

5. Kyle Chandler, First Man

Alt: Steve Carell, Cheney

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Amy Adams, Cheney

2. Claire Foy, First Man

3. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

4. Olivia Colman, The Favourite

5. Emma Stone, The Favourite

Alt: Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. Cheney

2. The Favourite

3. On the Basis of Sex

4. Roma

5. Hereditary

Alt: A Quiet Place

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. First Man

2. Widows

3. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

4. A Star Is Born

5. If Beale Street Could Talk

Alt: BlacKkKlansman

 

Animated:

 

1. Incredibles 2

2. Isle of Dogs

3. Ralph Breaks the Internet

4. Early Man

5. An indie movie

Alt: shit idk

 

Cinematography:

 

1. First Man

2. Roma

3. A Star Is Born

4. Mary, Queen of Scots

5. The Favourite

Alt: Widows

 

Editing:

 

1. First Man

2. Widows

3. The Favourite

4. Cheney

5. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Alt: A Star Is Born

 

Production Design:

 

1. The Favourite

2. Mary, Queen of Scots

3. Black Panther

4. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

5. First Man

Alt: A Star Is Born

 

Costume Design:

 

1. The Favourite

2. Mary, Queen of Scots

3. Black Panther

4. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

5. Bohemian Rhapsody

Alt: A Star Is Born

 

Makeup:

 

1. Cheney

2. Mary, Queen of Scots

3. Black Panther

Alt: The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

 

Score:

 

1. Mary, Queen of Scots

2. First Man

3. Black Panther

4. Avengers: Infinity War

5. If Beale Street Could Talk

Alt: Isle of Dogs

 

Song:

 

1. A Star Is Born

2. All the Stars, Black Panther

3. Ashes, Deadpool 2

4. Mary Poppins Returns

5. Christopher Robin

Alt: Pray for Me, Black Panther

 

Visual Effects:
 

1. Avengers: Infinity War

2. First Man

3. Alita: Battle Angel

4. Solo: A Star Wars Story

5. A Quiet Place

Alt: Ant-Man and the Wasp

 

Sound Editing:

 

1. A Quiet Place

2. Black Panther

3. First Man

4. Avengers: Infinity War

5. Solo: A Star Wars Story

Alt: Alita: Battle Angel

 

Sound Mixing:

 

1. A Quiet Place

2. A Star Is Born

3. Bohemian Rhapsody

4. Black Panther

5. First Man

Alt: Avengers: Infinity War

 

Nomination count:

Spoiler

 

13:

First Man (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

 

9:

The Favourite (Picture, Director, Supporting Actress x2, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design)

 

8:

Black Panther (Picture, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup, Score, Song, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

Cheney (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing, Makeup)

A Star Is Born (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Song, Sound Mixing)

 

6:

Mary, Queen of Scots (Picture, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup, Score)

 

5:

Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Editing)

If Beale Street Could Talk (Picture, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Score)

Widows (Picture, Director, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Editing)

 

 

3:

Avengers: Infinity War (Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing)

Bohemian Rhapsody (Actor, Costume Design, Sound Mixing)

On the Basis of Sex (Picture, Actress, Original Screenplay)

A Quiet Place (Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

 

2:

Hereditary (Actress, Original Screenplay)

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (Production Design, Costume Design)

Roma (Original Screenplay, Cinematography)

Solo: A Star Wars Story (Visual Effects, Sound Editing)

 

 

This is going to be so wrong :Venom: 

Edited by WrathOfHan
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39 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

FULL PREDICTIONS MINUS FOREIGN/DOCU/SHORTS :Venom: 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Nomination count:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

This is going to be so wrong :Venom: 

Looking forward to you adding Venom to all your predictions once dat buzz comes out.

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19 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

spike lee's gonna win and his speech is gonna be yelling at them for seven minutes and they'll be too scared to play him off is my official prediction.

I think that this is the year (well, next year cause that's when they hand out the awards) where the black director takes it. Question is only if he's going to be one of three African-Americans (which would resonate more) or the Brit. But out of 4 with movies in contention (Lee, Coogler, Jenkins, McQueen), at least 2 will make it in noms and one will go all the way. 

Edited by Valonqar
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5 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

Coogler is not in contention.

 

I think I agree here. 2018 seems to be a competitive year in regards to auteur films, with a variety of heavyweight contenders such as Damien Chazelle and Spike Lee, and I think it'll be enough to push Coogler out of contention for Best Director.

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BP is too big to ignore or receive only a Blockbuster spot nomination (no director). Coogler is in. His movie is in Top 5. Wait and see. 

 

Also, his movie is already a critical hit and a boxoffice phenomenon. others are yet to receive reviews and see how boxoffice goes. Spike Lee movie is already polarizing. Meta score is pretty clunky and that's from 14 American critics.

Edited by Valonqar
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1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

BP is too big to ignore or receive only a Blockbuster spot nomination (no director). Coogler is in. His movie is in Top 5. Wait and see. 

This feels like a classic example of a post that's bound to age poorly.

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1 minute ago, filmlover said:

This feels like a classic example of a post that's bound to age poorly.

Like I said, wait and see. It's the movie of the year. Media and public pressure is going to be big. They will want to atone for TDK and just scoring a blockbuster spot is not it. Coogler is in. 4 spots up for grabs left. 

 

I know. SH movie stigma. Easier to break Picture barrier than Director (less spots). But I have a good feeling about this. 

Edited by Valonqar
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Just now, Valonqar said:

Like I said, wait and see. It's the movie of the year. Media and public pressure is going to be big. They will want to atone for TDK and just scoring a blockbuster spot is not it. Coogler is in. 4 spots for grabs left. 

I'm pretty sure Nolan's Best Director nom finally happening last year was justice being served for the Dark Knight snubs. There haven't been many (if any) comic book movies in the decade since that one would say was snubbed of major recognition.

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1 minute ago, filmlover said:

I'm pretty sure Nolan's Best Director nom finally happening last year was justice being served for the Dark Knight snubs. There haven't been many (if any) comic book movies in the decade since that one would say was snubbed of major recognition.

That's why I'm saying that BP is their best bet for atonement over TDK snub. Also, BP is considered very important and while there are many other movies with the same narrative, none of them is going to be a boxoffice phenomenon, not even close. 

 

I understand that genre is a strike against Coogler but I'm confident that he's in. The guy has great track record so far (Fruitvale, Creed and BP all scored with critics so he's no fluke) and he would get industry backing. 

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I might entertain the Coogler possibility if the movie was a Fury Road-level incredible directorial accomplishment. But it's not. It's just a solidly crafted blockbuster. Nothing is too big to ignore. Black Panther will get its due in stuff like costumes and makeup and with any luck the Academy will have black directors to nominate besides Coogler.

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18 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

I might entertain the Coogler possibility if the movie was a Fury Road-level incredible directorial accomplishment. But it's not. It's just a solidly crafted blockbuster. Nothing is too big to ignore. Black Panther will get its due in stuff like costumes and makeup and with any luck the Academy will have black directors to nominate besides Coogler.

It's still very early but I don't think it's that far-fetched to think BP could be that top-5 oscar pick that gets nominated everywhere incuding director and just wins a bunch of technicals in the end.

-It already has giant cultural event status.

-It is self-contained enough to not be hurt be being part of a never-ending franchise. 

-It's a very appealing poster boy for diversity succeeding at the top of the Hollywood foud chain.

-It didn't just got a pat in the back from critics, it ended up with unprecedent reviews for its genre (like Get Out did last year).

 

The 2 things against it is being a superhero movie and the early release date. And it can overcome the February release date. If the early critic awards/precursors decide to bring it back around December, then the Globes will for sure double down on it and the whole thing can snowball from there. Of course we don't know that the critics/early awards will revive it, but I wouldn't rule it out. 

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